Tag: Reds Brewers odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (56-80) take on the Milwaukee Brewers (73-66) Saturday in the second game of a 3-game set at American Family Field. First pitch is set for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Brewers lead 8-5

The Reds opened this series with a bang, disposing of The Brew Crew 8-2 Friday night. LHP Nick Lodolo went 8 strong IP with 11 K’s, and the Reds offense slugged 3 homers. Cincinnati is 6-4 over its last 10 games and is a respectable 10-10 over the last 20.

The Brewers feel like they’re on the part of the Cha-Cha song that asks: “How low can ya go?” They now trail the St. Louis Cardinals by 8 games in the NL Central and don’t look to have much of a counter punch. Milwaukee is 16-22 since July 31, and this collapse is sure to shake some things up in the offseason.

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Reds at Brewers projected starters

RHP Chase Anderson vs. RHP Adrian Houser

Anderson (0-2, 12.60 ERA) makes his 3rd start and 4th appearance. He has 5 IP, 5 H, 7 ER, 6 BB and 6 K.

  • Tossed 2 2/3 hitless IP with 4 BB and 4 K Sunday against the Colorado Rockies in his last start
  • Threw 56 pitches last time and could stretch out to 65 or more over 4 IP

Houser (5-9, 4.83 ERA) makes his 18th start and 19th appearance. He has a 1.48 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 85 2/3 IP.

  • Made 3 starts against Reds this year: 2-1, 6.00 ERA, 15 IP, 9 BB, 14 K
  • Hasn’t thrown more than 81 pitches in 2 starts since returning from the IL Aug. 24

Reds at Brewers odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:53 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Reds +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Brewers -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-110)| Brewers -1.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Reds at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 7, Brewers 5

Money line

The Brewers are -240 favorites at home, and honestly, I wouldn’t pay -140 on them right now. Neither starter figures to be in the game in the 6th inning, and I trust Cincinnati’s offense more.

The only ace Milwaukee has in the hole is stud reliever RHP Devin Williams has only thrown 12 pitches since Monday and could be deployed for 2 innings if they get a lead.

I’ll take my chances with REDS (+190).

Run line/Against the spread

The Reds are 35-33 on the RL on the road, which is really good for a team 24 games below .500. I’m willing to throw a HALF-UNIT at REDS +1.5 (-110) in case the ML doesn’t cash.

Over/Under

So neither starter has been very good, and they don’t figure to go very deep into the game. We had 10 runs Friday, and I think we’ll reach that threshold again Saturday — we’ll have to if the Reds hope to prevail.

The Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these teams in Milwaukee. Take the OVER 8.5 (-125).

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Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (43-63) and Milwaukee Brewers (58-49) cap off a 3-game set at American Family Field with Sunday’s 1st pitch is set for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Brewers lead 8-3

The Reds are 5-2 in their last 7 games and a respectable 9-6 since the All-Star break. Cincinnati pitching has been much improved with the Reds owning a 3.32 ERA in those last 15 games.

Milwaukee lost Saturday’s game, but is 6-2 in its last 8 games at home. The Brewers have logged an .878 OPS over that stretch.

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Reds at Brewers projected starters

RHP Graham Ashcraft vs. RHP Corbin Burnes

Ashcraft (5-2, 4.12 ERA) is tabbed for his 14th start. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 in 74 1/3 IP.

  • Coming off 8 1/3 innings of 1-run ball (unearned) at the Miami Marlins Tuesday. Owns a 3.52 ERA in his last 5 starts
  • Rocked by the Brewers on June 18 allowing 6R, 8 H and 2 BB in 5 IP

Burnes (8-5, 2.49 ERA) owns a 0.95 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 through 130 IP across 21 starts.

  • Has a 4.96 ERA in his last 3 starts
  • Has a 1.96 ERA, 0.96 WHIP in his last 4 home starts

Reds at Brewers odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:53 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Brewers -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (+100) | Brewers -1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Reds at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 4, Reds 3

Money line

PASS on current prices. The Reds are a lean in principle, but only a partial-unit play at +230 or better.

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Run line/Against the spread

The Ashcraft-ripped-by-Milwaukee-last-time-out angle makes for plenty of risk here. But there is enough general Brewers-tipped-too-far-one-way sentiment crashing against Reds-tipped-too-far-the-other-way to make for some interest here.

BACK THE REDS +1.5 (+100).

Over/Under

Both bullpens and offenses make for an institutional lean toward scoring being lower than predicted. But value dries up a 7.5-run total here at about -115.

STEER CLEAR.

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Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (42-63) and Milwaukee Brewers (58-48) meet Saturday for the 2nd game of a 3-game set at American Family Field. First pitch is set for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Brewers lead 8-2

The Reds went 4-1 — yielding just 9 total runs — over their 5 games prior to this series. Cincinnati coughed up 5 runs in Friday’s opener.

The Brewers — now winners of 4 straight over the Reds — had lost 4 consecutive games heading into this series. Milwaukee is 6-1 with an .876 OPS over 7 home games in the second half.

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Reds at Brewers projected starters

LHP Nick Lodolo vs. LHP Aaron Ashby

Lodolo (3-3, 4.23 ERA) is lined up for his 9th start. He has clocked a 1.57 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 12.7 K/9 through 38 1/3 IP.

  • Has allowed just 1 ER on 9 hits with 16 K through 12 IP across 2 starts since the All-Star break.
  • Facing a Milwaukee offense that has Jekyll & Hyde splits. The Brewers own a .767 OPS against righties (4th MLB), but they’ve registered a mere .663 OPS against southpaws (25th).

Ashby (2-9, 4.13 ERA) has appeared in 20 games (14 as a starter) and has thrown 80 2/3 innings. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9.

  • Allowed 5 R (all unearned) on 5 H and 3 BB with 6 K in 4 2/3 IP in his last start Sunday at the Boston Red Sox.
  • Has logged a 2.84 ERA and 0.99 WHIP across 25 1/3 IP at home.

Reds at Brewers odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Brewers -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-140) | Brewers -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Reds at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 4, Reds 3

Money line

PASS on current prices. The Reds are a lean in principle but only a partial-unit play at +155 or better.

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Run line/Against the spread

With a strong low-scoring lean for the game and liking Cincinnati for its solid 8-6 mark in the second half, there is LEVERAGE IN THE REDS +1.5 (-140).

Over/Under

Both bullpens and offenses line up with expected numbers that come in on the Under side of what performances have been in box scores.

Both starters have been hurt by unkind rates around the margins (Lodolo, for instance, has pitched through a .406 batting average on balls in play). And Milwaukee’s offense against left-handers goes down more than a couple of notches.

BACK THE UNDER 7.5 (-108).

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Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (42-62) and Milwaukee Brewers (57-48) meet Friday at 8:10 p.m. ET to open a 3-game set at American Family Field. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Brewers lead 7-2

The Reds, who had an off day Thursday, are 4-1 in their last 5 games. They’ve yielded just 16 total runs over that span.

The Brewers are back home after a 2-4 road trip. Milwaukee has lost its last 4 games. Brewers pitching was touched up for a 4.59 ERA, 1.62 WHIP over those 4 contests.

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Reds at Brewers projected starters

RHP Robert Dugger vs. LHP Eric Lauer

Dugger (0-0, 4.50) has made 3 relief appearances this season. In 12 IP, he owns a 1.50 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 12.8 K/9.

  • Returns from Triple-A Louisville for his first MLB start of the year and the 13th of his career
  • Has logged a 4.70 ERA in 53 2/3 IP in the minors. Has gone 5 innings or more in 4 of his last 7 turns at Triple-A

Lauer (7-3, 3.75 ERA) is tabbed for his 20th start of the season. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 105 2/3 IP.

  • Has posted a 2.85 ERA, 1.10 WHIP at home
  • Scuffled in a June 17 start vs. the Reds (6 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 1BB, 5 K) and owns a 5.92 ERA in his last 5 starts against Cincinnati

Reds at Brewers odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:36 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Brewers -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-105) | Brewers -1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Reds at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 4, Reds 3

Money line

The line has moved perhaps too much toward Milwaukee since it opened. But the juice has expanded also. Cincinnati +200 is worth some action, but PASS on current prices.

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Run line/Against the spread

With a slight Under lean and liking Cincinnati for its solid 8-5 mark in the 2nd half, there is LEVERAGE IN THIS REDS +1.5 (-105) PLAY.

Over/Under

Both bullpens and offenses line up with expected numbers that come in on the Under side of what performances have been in box scores.

Look for the prices to tilt toward a more evenly priced 8.5 throughout the day. BACK THE UNDER 8.5 (+105).

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Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (3-21) and Milwaukee Brewers (17-8) meet Thursday to close out a 3-game series at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Milwaukee leads 2-0.

The Reds are reeling, having lost each of their last 8 contests and 19 of their last 20 games. Cincy pitchers have filed a Boeing ERA (7.29) across that 20-game span and the club is 0-8 in games decided by 5 runs or more.

The Brewers are 7-1 since April 26. Milwaukee hurlers have held foes under 4 runs in 6 of those 8 games, and it won Wednesday’s game 18-4.

Reds at Brewers projected starters

RHP Hunter Greene vs. RHP Adrian Houser

Greene (1-3, 6.00 ERA) is making his 5th start of the season. He has a 1.61 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 through 18 IP.

  • Has allowed 18 base runners (including 8 BB) over his last 7 2/3 IP.
  • Has thus far logged a tough strength of schedule with starts against the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers and a road turn at Coors Field to face the Colorado Rockies.

Houser (2-2, 2.53 ERA) owns a 1.17 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 through 21 1/3 IP across 4 starts.

  • Posted a 3.22 ERA in 142 1/3 IP last season (including a 2.81 ERA at home).
  • Current Cincinnati batters own a high-contact 1.072 OPS against him.

Reds at Brewers odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 8:20 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | Brewers -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-120) | Brewers -1.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Reds at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 4, Reds 3

Money line

Betting against a streak like this draws a shaved-down-unit play for me, but the REDS (+175) are worth a look. The starters amount to some play on the Cincy side and fade on the Milwaukee side, and the Cincinnati offense having a .252 batting average on balls in play on the road is a situation ripe for some buoyancy.

Consider a lesser play and then a line watch for added partial-unit insurance at a better price as the game approaches. Wednesday’s Cincinnati price jumped some 40 cents-plus in some parts of the market. The Reds aren’t the predicted winner, but they have enough of a chance to warrant some action on tags like this.

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Run line/Against the spread

Other parts of the market have the Reds getting +110 here: PASS.

Over/Under

Right-handers hem in both offenses a bit. Greene has deserved a better fate than the bloated surface numbers that show in his line. The Milwaukee bullpen is in good shape.

TAKE THE UNDER 7.5 (-108).

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (3-19) and Milwaukee Brewers (15-8) meet Tuesday to open a 3-game series at American Family Field. Tuesday’s series opener is scheduled for a 7:40 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: first meeting. Milwaukee took last year’s series, 10 games to 9.

Cincinnati is continuing a trip that opened with 3 straight losses at Colorado. The Reds are reeling, having lost each of their last 6 and 17 of their last 18. In that larger set of games, Cincy pitchers have filed a 6.69 ERA.

The Brewers lost at home to the Chicago Cubs Sunday but had won 5 in a row before that. Milwaukee pitching has been nearly as sharp as the Reds have been bad. The Brewers are 11-3 with a 2.23 ERA since April 17.

Reds at Brewers projected starters

RHP Tyler Mahle vs. RHP Brandon Woodruff

Mahle (1-3, 6.45 ERA) owns a 1.66 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 22 1/3 IP over 5 starts.

  • Posted a 2.30 ERA, allowing a mere .577 OPS, in road games last season.
  • Current Milwaukee batters own an aggregate .784 OPS against him.

Woodruff (2-1, 5.30 ERA) is tabbed for his fifth start. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 through 18 2/3 IP.

  • Owns a 1.84 ERA over his last five starts against Cincinnati.
  • Has thus far had to pitch around a .315 batting average on balls in play and a 59.3% stranded rate.

Reds at Brewers odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 1:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Brewers -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-117) | Brewers -1.5 (-103)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -140 | U: +112)

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Reds at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 3, Reds 2

Money line

The juice here is flowing and drowning out what would be a decent play on Cincinnati at around +195.

AVOID FOR NOW. But the Reds’ jarring record could throw some midday bettors and send some money the Brewers’ way. Worth checking back to see if something closer to +200 avails itself.

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Run line/Against the spread

Runs scored against runs allowed would indicate the Brewers are a couple games in front of where their record should be. The Reds are in the opposite camp, although even a 2-3-game rise in the win total still makes for a scuffling baseball club.

Mahle is a high-quality hurler that fares well on the road and has been beaten up by a .388 BABIP so far.

BACK THE REDS +1.5 (-117).

Over/Under

Not an attractive set of prices, but a small LEAN to the UNDER 6.5 (+112) is the way to go. The Under has hit in 2 straight between these two, and that was last season when both offenses were clicking better. Cincinnati is 28th in runs/9 innings, and Milwaukee is 16th.

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Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (69-59) and Milwaukee Brewers (78-49) play the finale of a three-game set Thursday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Reds vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Reds RHP Sonny Gray (5-6, 4.15 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 through 97 2/3 IP.

  • Yielded just 1 hit and 2 walks with 5 strikeouts across 7 IP in a victory against the Miami Marlins Friday.
  • Has posted a 2-0 record, 3.74 ERA with just 1 homer allowed across 21 2/3 IP in his four August starts.

Brewers LHP Brett Anderson (4-7, 4.15 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 5.6 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 through 82 1/3 IP.

  • Coughed up 9 earned runs, 13 hits and 4 walks across 8 2/3 IP across his past two starts, both losses.
  • Is 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 12 strikeouts across 15 IP in three starts vs. Cincinnati this season.

Reds at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:19 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Brewers -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (+145) | Brewers +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Reds 4, Brewers 2

Money line (ML)

The REDS (-105) look to salvage something from this three-game set as they try to avoid the broom.

Cincinnati has won four of the past five starts by Gray. Milwaukee has dropped each of the past three outings by Anderson, while going 3-7 across his past 10 starts.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The REDS -1.5 (+145) are worth a small-unit play behind Gray, as they have covered five straight against the run line in his starts, including two as favorites and three as underdogs.

Over/Under (O/U)

The UNDER 8.5 (-130) is the play despite the fact Anderson is on the bump. While the southpaw has been shaky for the Brewers, the Under has hit in two of the past three starts by Gray for the Reds.

The Under is also 5-2 in the previous seven overall for Cincinnati, including Tuesday’s affair.

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Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (47-42) and the Milwaukee Brewers (53-38) wrap up their four-game series Sunday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

After losing the series opener, Cincinnati has won the last two games of the series by a combined score of 6-3 as both Reds starting pitchers tossed quality starts and prevented the Brewers from cozying up against Cincinnati’s awful bullpen.

Season series: Reds lead 7-5.

RHP Luis Castillo is Cincinnati’s projected starter. In 18 starts, Castillo is 3-10 with a 4.81 ERA (97 1/3 IP, 52 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 4 K in Cincinnati’s 7-6 loss at the Kansas City Royals Tuesday.
  • Castillo is 0-2 this season against Milwaukee with a 4.08 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 9 H, 10 BB and 19 K in three starts.
  • vs. Brewers on the current roster: 153 at-bats with a .209/.320/.333 slash line, 49/21 K/BB, 4 HR and 12 RBIs.

RHP Brandon Woodruff makes his 18th start for the Brewers. Woodruff is 7-4 with a 2.10 ERA (107 1/3 IP, 25 ER), 0.78 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Loss, 4-2, with 6 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 6 K at the New York Mets Monday.
  • vs. Reds on the current roster: 70 at-bats with a .286/.342/.543 slash line, 27/5 K/BB, 5 HR and 10 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Reds at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:09 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Brewers -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-160) | Brewers -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under: 7 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Reds 3, Brewers 2

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the REDS (+135) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a quarter unit – if at all – because I “like” Cincinnati’s First 5 Innings run line even better.

Quietly the Reds have been on a hot streak, picking up wins in eight of their last 10 games, and Castillo’s pitching peripherals against active Brewers batters are better than Woodruff’s vs. current Reds hitters.

Woodruff does have an absurdly high 36.5% strikeout rate against active Reds hitters but Castillo has the better FIP, expected wOBA, expected slugging percentage, exit velocity and launch angle against current Brewers batters.

Also, Castillo has turned it around after an abysmal start to the season. Castillo has six quality starts with a 2.00 ERA, 3.02 FIP and 0.40 home run per nine-inning rate over his last seven outings.

Lastly, stick with Cincy’s First 5 Innings lines if you’re backing the Reds in this one. The Reds need as many quality innings as Castillo can provide because their bullpen has the highest home run per nine-inning rate in the majors, the second-highest BB% and sixth-worst xFIP.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET the REDS +0.5 (-115) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit because of all the aforementioned reasons plus this is a good price for a half-run worth of insurance on Cincy’s First 5 Innings money line bet above.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 3.5 (-115) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit because Castillo is starting to pitch closer to the “top of the rotation” starter form we are accustomed to and Woodruff is a top-5 starter in the National League.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (46-42) and Milwaukee Brewers (53-37) play the third game of a four-game set Saturday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Vladimir Gutierrez is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He is 4-3 with a 4.67 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 7.3 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 over 44 1/3 IP across eight starts.

Gutierrez allowed just two runs, five hits and two walks with six strikeouts across six innings in a win at the Kansas City Royals, snapping a three-start winless skid. He is 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA and .213 opponent batting average vs. Milwaukee this season.

RHP Freddy Peralta is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers. He is 7-3 with a 2.23 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 12.5 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 over 93 IP through 16 starts and 1 relief appearance.

Peralta allowed two earned runs, three hits and five walks with seven strikeouts across six innings in a loss at the Pittsburgh Pirates July 4. The All-Star is 0-1 with a 2.87 ERA and .175 opponent batting average in three starts vs. Cincinnati.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Reds at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:45 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Brewers -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-115) | Brewers -1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Brewers 4, Reds 3

Money line (ML)

The Brewers (-200) are a little more expensive than I care to play on a money line bet, especially since I expect this game to be super close.

AVOID.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The REDS +1.5 (-115) is worth a play in this game which should be very close. Gutierrez has had his way with the Brewers -1.5 (+105) in two previous starts this season. I don’t quite think the third time is a charm for Gutierrez, but Cincinnati should keep it close in Cream City.

Over/Under (O/U)

The UNDER 8.5 (-115) is the lean in this game with two solid pitchers on the bump. The Under has connected in seven straight divisional games for Cincinnati, while going 6-0 in their past six against winning teams.

The Under has also hit in the past five outings for the Brewers, while going 4-0 in their past four as a favorite, and 5-2 in the past seven at home against teams with a winning overall mark.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Joe Williams on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (53-36) host the Cincinnati Reds (45-42) Friday for the second game of their four-game series at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee beat Cincinnati Thursday 5-3 as the Brewers relievers held the Reds hitters scoreless over 4 2/3 innings pitched with just 1 hit, 0 walks and 6 strikeouts.

Season series: Tied 5-5.

LHP Wade Miley is Cincinnati’s projected starter. Miley is 6-4 with a 3.06 ERA (88 1/3 IP, 30 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 over 15 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 10 H, 1 BB and 3 K in Cincinnati’s 3-2 victory over the Chicago Cubs Sunday.
  • vs. Brewers on the current roster: 89 at-bats with a .247/.316/.404 slash line, 24/7 K/BB, 3 HR and 12 RBIs.

LHP Eric Lauer is on the mound for the Brewers. Lauer is 3-3 with a 4.11 ERA (50 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 over eight starts and three relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Win, 11-2, with 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 4 K Saturday at the Pittsburgh Pirates.
  • Lauer took a loss June 14 vs. the Reds with a stat line of 5 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 4 BB and 3 K in Milwaukee’s 10-2 defeat.
  • vs. Reds on the current roster: 61 at-bats with a .262/.430/.344 slash line, 20/16 K/BB, 0 HR and 9 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Reds at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:29 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Brewers -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-190) | Brewers -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Brewers 6, Reds 4

Money line (ML)

I’m BETTING 1 unit on the BREWERS (-125) for a few different reasons. First, the presumed “sharp” money is rolling with the Brewers while the “public” is backing the Reds.

According to Pregame.com, the number of bets on each team is equal but 65% of the money is on Milwaukee, which is what caused oddsmakers to move the Brewers’ money line from a pick ’em to a -125 favorite.

Second, despite the Reds having a much more productive lineup – Cincinnati’s lineup is 10th in wRC+ and Milwaukee’s is 21st – the Reds batters don’t hit lefties very well.

For instance, Cincinnati’s lineup ranks in the bottom 6 of the majors vs. left-handed pitching in wRC+, wOBA and OPS.

Finally, the Reds need to get to Lauer early because I have no faith their bullpen will be able to pull this game out. Cincinnati’s bullpen is 26th in WAR, 25th in xFIP, 28th in hard-hit rate and 29th in launch angle.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because Cincinnati is 18-12 ATS as a road dog this season and is actually favored on the First 5 Innings money line so I’m leery about laying it with Brewers run line since there’s a good chance will need Milwaukee to take this game in the late innings.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-110) for a half unit because these teams have a combined 15-8 O/U record when these starters are on the mound plus the market slightly prefers the Over and it’s not like there’s a lot of public money on a Reds-Brewers game in the middle of July.

Furthermore, it’s best to act ASAP if you’re betting on BetMGM because most sportsbooks have moved the Reds-Brewers total up to a flat-9 with juice on the Under but BetMGM hasn’t adjusted their total yet.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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