The Boston Red Sox (75-59) and Tampa Bay Rays (84-48) play the third game of a four-game set Wednesday at Tropicana Field. First pitch is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Red Sox vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Rays lead 9-5
The Rays are on an nine-game win streak after taking the first two games of this series, 6-1 Monday and 8-5 Tuesday. The Red Sox have dropped three in a row and have fallen 10 games back of the AL East-leading Rays.
Another sour note for Boston is that cleanup hitter SS Xander Bogaerts (.298, 20 HR, 70 RBI) was pulled in the second inning of Tuesday’s game because of a positive COVID-19 test.
The BoSox hope that LHP Chris Sale can stop the bleeding. He is projected to take the hill Wednesday for his fourth start since returning from Tommy John surgery. So far, he is a perfect 3-0 with a 2.35 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 13 H, 3 BB and 21 K in three starts in 2021.
- Last outing: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 12-2 home victory vs. Minnesota Twins Thursday
- Career vs. Rays: 10-6, 2.94 ERA (122 1/3 IP, 40 ER), 0.97 WHIP, 13.2 K/9 in 18 starts and two relief appearances
RHP Drew Rasmussen is the Rays’ projected starter. Since being acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers in May, he is 1-0 with a 3.09 ERA (35 IP, 12 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in five starts and 10 relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 3-1 win at Philadelphia Phillies Aug. 24
- Combined 2021 stats (Rays and Brewers): 1-1, 3.46 ERA (52 IP, 20 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 in five starts and 25 relief appearances
- Career vs. Red Sox: 0-0, 2.70 ERA (6 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 4 H, 5 BB, 7 K in three 2021 appearances, one start and two relief outings
Red Sox at Rays odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:43 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Red Sox -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Rays -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox -1.5 (+155) | Rays +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Prediction
Red Sox 3, Rays 2
Money line (ML)
Despite Tampa Bay being 13-1 in its last 14 games and owning the AL’s best home record at 43-23, BOSTON (-110) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.
Even with Bogaerts out, I’ll take my chances with Sale, who grew up in Lakeland, Fla., about 60 miles from Tropicana Field.
Sale is 4-1 with a 2.00 ERA (49 1/3 IP, 11 ER) and one complete-game, 2-hit shutout in seven starts at the Trop since 2016.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
ATS records: Red Sox 68-66 | Rays 77-55
BET RAYS +1.5 (-190) to WIN a HALF UNIT.
Their ATS record ranks first in the AL and second in the majors.
They’re 8-1 ATS in their last nine games and 12-2 in their last 14. They’re also 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings vs. Boston.
Over/Under (O/U)
O/U records: Red Sox 61-70-3 | Rays 73-54-5
BET UNDER 7.5 (-115) to WIN a HALF UNIT based on the Sale-Rasmussen pitching matchup and no Bogaerts in the Boston lineup.
Sale hasn’t allowed more than 2 runs in each of his three starts, while Rasmussen sports a 2.50 ERA (18 IP, 5 ER) in his five starts this year.
Beware. The Rays are MLB’s second-best Over team and the Over is 10-4 in the 14 Tampa Bay-Boston meetings this season.
If the line climbs to 8, I’d be willing to wager a little more.
For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
JOHNNY’S RECORD | W-L | SP | ROI |
SINCE JULY 8 | 27-14 | 11-5 | +12.757 |
*–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment |
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