Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Boston Red Sox (58-50) and Texas Rangers (52-58) meet Saturday for the 2nd game of a 3-game series. First pitch from Globe Life Field is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Rangers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Boston leads 1-0

Boston beat Texas 11-6 in Friday’s series opener while cashing as a +102 underdog. RHP Kutter Crawford was the winning pitcher, allowing 5 ER on 6 hits and 1 walk with 5 K’s in 5 1/3 IP. RF Wilyer Abreu went 3-for-5 at the plate with 1 HR and 3 RBIs in the win.

Reliever RHP Jose Urena took the loss, as he allowed 7 ER on 8 hits in only 4 IP. Friday’s loss marked the 3rd straight for the Rangers, while the Red Sox have won back-to-back outings.

Red Sox at Rangers projected starters

RHP Tanner Houck vs. LHP Cody Bradford

Houck (8-7, 2.79 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 through 129 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER (4 R), 5 H, 4 BB, 2 K in 8-2 home defeat vs. New York Yankees Sunday
  • 2024 road stats: 4-2, 2.38 ERA (53 IP, 14 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 in 9 starts
  • Career vs. Texas: 0-0, 3.86 ERA (7 IP, 3 ER), 4 H, 5 BB, 4 K in 1 start and 1 relief appearance, including 0-0 with 4.50 ERA (4 IP, 2 ER) in 1 start last year

Bradford (3-0, 3.38 ERA) makes his 4th start and 5th appearance. He has a 0.84 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 21 1/3 innings.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 2 relief IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 8-1 loss at St. Louis Cardinals Tuesday
  • Last start: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 6-2 home victory over Oakland A’s April 10
  • 2024 home stats: 3-0, 1.40 ERA (19 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 0.62 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 in 3 starts
  • Never faced Red Sox before

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Red Sox at Rangers odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:50 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Red Sox -118 (bet $118 to win $100) | Rangers +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox -1.5 (+140) | Rangers +1.5 (-170)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: +100)

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Red Sox at Rangers picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 5, Rangers 4

Moneyline

LEAN RED SOX (-118).

Boston enters as the slightly hotter team, being 2-1 in its last 3 road games and 3-1 in its last 4 overall, while the Rangers have dropped 3 straight and are only 1-6 in their last 7.

The Red Sox are also 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

This is a lean because Boston is only 5-5 in its last 10 games and 2-2 in the last 4 meetings in Arlington.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I like the Rangers to cover here as +1.5 (-170) underdogs, but the line is set too heavily to risk betting on. Bet on the moneyline and/or total instead.

Over/Under

BET OVER 7.5 (-122).

The Over has hit in each of Texas’ last 7 games, 8 of its last 10 overall, and 2 of its last 3 at home.

For Boston, the Over is 3-1 in its last 4 road games and 8-2 in its last 10 overall.

The Over has also hit in each of the last 3 meetings.

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Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Boston Red Sox (75-77) and Texas Rangers (83-68) meet Wednesday for the finale of a 3-game series. First pitch from Globe Life Field is set for 2:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Rangers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Red Sox lead 3-2

Texas won 6-4 Tuesday, ending a 4-game skid for the Rangers. The Rangers are currently tied for 2nd-place in the AL West with the Seattle Mariners, both a half-game behind the 1st-place Houston Astros. The division rivals are also tied for the wild AL Wild Card with Texas holding the tiebreaker. Texas and Seattle square off in 7 of its last 10 games.

Tuesday’s loss was detrimental to Boston’s playoff hopes which continue to dwindle with every defeat. The Red Sox are currently in last place in the AL East, have lost 5 of their last 6 games and are 8 1/2 games out of the final AL Wild Card.

Red Sox at Rangers projected starters

RHP Brayan Bello vs. RHP Jon Gray

Bello (12-9, 3.71 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 through 148 IP.

  • Last outing: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 10 K in 3-0 road loss Friday vs. Toronto Blue Jays
  • Career vs. Texas: 2-0, 1.38 ERA (13 IP, 2 ER), 11 H, 1 BB, 8 K across 2 starts

Gray (8-8, 4.05 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 through 149 IP.

  • Last outing: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 12-3 road loss Friday vs. Cleveland Guardians
  • Career vs. Boston: 1-1, 3.38 ERA (13 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 14 H, 6 BB, 8 K through 2 starts

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Red Sox at Rangers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:44 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Rangers -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-165) | Rangers -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Red Sox at Rangers picks and predictions

Prediction

Rangers 4, Red Sox 3

Moneyline

LEAN RANGERS (-145).

The Rangers are the hotter team and have more to fight for in this matchup. Boston is all but eliminated from playoff contention while Texas has a real shot to clinch their division. Texas has also been dominant (46-31) at home on the year while the Red Sox are 37-39 on the road.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I like the Red Sox to cover here as they are 7-3 in their last 10 vs. Texas, but at +1.5 (-165) the line is not worth the juice. Bet on the moneyline and/or total instead.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8.5 (+100).

The Under is 6-4 in the last 10 Boston-Texas meetings and is 7-3 in Boston’s last 10 overall. The Under is also 2-0 in Bello’s 2 career starts vs. Texas and hit in his last start. The Under also hit in Gray’s last start vs. Boston.

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Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Boston Red Sox (75-76) and the Texas Rangers (82-68) play the middle contest of a 3-game series at Globe Life Field Tuesday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox at Rangers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Red Sox lead 3-1

The Red Sox are mathematically still alive for the postseason, although Boston is 7 1/2 games out of the last AL Wild Card spot with 11 games to play. So yeah, it is likely not going to the playoffs. However, the Red Sox are doing their best to spoil the party for the Rangers, winning 3 of 4 games against Texas this season, including a devastating 4-2 win Monday.

The Rangers have dropped 4 games in a row, all against teams who are all but likely going to miss the postseason. It is Texas’ 2nd 4-game losing streak just since Sept. 4, and it can ill afford any further slip-ups if it wants to stay ahead of the Seattle Mariners and/or the Toronto Blue Jays for one of the final AL Wild Cards. The Rangers are still just 1 1/2 games back of the first-place Houston Astros in the AL West, although they would need to leapfrog the Mariners there as well.

Red Sox at Rangers projected starters

RHP Tanner Houck vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi

Houck (5-9, 4.94 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 93 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 5-0 home win vs. New York Yankees Thursday
  • 2023 road splits: 2-5, 4.75 ERA (41 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 5 HR, .245 opponent batting average (OBA) in 8 starts

Eovaldi (11-4, 2.96 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 130 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 3 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 9-2 road win vs. Blue Jays Thursday
  • 2023 home splits: 5-3, 3.07 ERA (55 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 7 HR, .212 OBA in 10 starts with 1 complete game

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Red Sox at Rangers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:58 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +145 (bet $100 to win $125) | Rangers -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-140) | Rangers -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Red Sox at Rangers picks and predictions

Prediction

Rangers 5, Red Sox 3

Moneyline

The RANGERS (-175) will get a much-needed win in the middle game, snapping a 4-game skid in the process. While Eovaldi hasn’t been going terribly deep into games in the past 3 starts since returning from a 6-week injury absence, he was able to throw 73 pitches last time out and he might have an extra level facing one of his former teams, too.

Run line/Against the spread

The RANGERS -1.5 (+115) are a risky play on the run line, considering they’ve dropped 4 in a row while going just 7-10 in 17 games in September. However, in its 5 wins from Sept. 10-14, Texas won by 3 or more runs. So if you like Texas to win, you should like it to do so by at least 2 runs.

Over/Under

The UNDER 8.5 (+100) cashed in Monday’s series opener, although it’s a little more risky to do so Tuesday, mostly due to Houck’s ineffectiveness.

Still, the Texas offense has struggled lately, totaling just 8 runs in the past 4 games, so it could make Houck look like an All-Star. Boston has cashed the Under in 4 straight while going low in 7 of the past 8 games overall.

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Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Boston Red Sox (74-76) and the Texas Rangers (82-67) start a 3-game series Monday at Globe Life Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Rangers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Boston leads 2-1

Both the Red Sox and Rangers were swept in a 3-game series over the weekend. The losses diminished Boston’s slim playoff chances and dropped Texas to the final AL Wild Card.

Boston is coming off a 3-2 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays Sunday. Blue Jays LF Daulton Varsho connected on a solo home run in the 5th inning to extend the Jays’ lead to 2-0 but the Red Sox scored 1 run in the 7th thanks to a single by 2B Pablo Reyes and 1 in the 9th on a solo shot by 3B Rafael Devers. The clutch comeback performance ended with heartbreak for the 2nd straight game as Toronto 3B Matt Chapman hit a walk-off triple in the bottom of the frame. Boston’s playoff chances are almost nonexistent following the sweep.

The Rangers were toppled 9-2 by the Cleveland Guardians Sunday. Rangers 3B Josh Smith hit an RBI single in the 2nd inning to stake Texas to an early lead, but the Guardians scored 9 runs in the 4th inning to take an insurmountable lead. Rangers C Austin Hedges was the only player on Texas with a multi-hit game as Cleveland RHP Gavin Williams pitched 6 innings with just 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, and 7 K. The Rangers are now 1 1/2 games behind the Houston Astros in the AL West and have slipped to the 3rd AL Wild Card.

Red Sox at Rangers projected starters

RHP Kutter Crawford vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery

Crawford (6-7, 4.26 ERA) makes his 21st start and 29th appearance. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 through 112 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 4-1 home loss vs. New York Yankees Tuesday
  • 2023 road stats: 6-3, 2.69 ERA (60 1/3 IP, 18 ER) in 10 starts and 4 relief appearances
  • Career vs. Rangers : 0-0, 4.50 ERA (6 IP, 3 ER) in 1 start and 1 relief appearance

Montgomery (9-11, 3.47 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 through 168 2/3 IP for the Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 10-0 road win vs. Toronto Blue Jays Wednesday
  • 2023 home stats: 6-5, 4.10 ERA (85 2/3 IP, 39 ER) in 15 starts
  • Career vs. Red Sox: 1-2, 3.95 ERA (70 2/3 IP, 31 ER) in 14 starts

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Red Sox at Rangers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:52 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Rangers  -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-155) | Rangers -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Red Sox at Rangers picks and predictions

Prediction

Rangers 5, Red Sox 4

Moneyline

The Red Sox are reeling after getting swept by Toronto. Boston is just 31-44 after a loss and is just 14-15 vs. the AL West.

Texas is 18-11 versus the AL East and is tied for the league’s 4th-best win percentage at home (45-30, 60%). I see the Rangers breaking out of their slump before the Red Sox can.

However, it’s a bit too chalky at -160 so you should PASS and wait to see if the line improves.

Run line/Against the spread

Texas is 1 of 4 teams with a winning record ATS as a home favorite but it’s barely over .500% (32-30). Boston on the other hand is 45-32 ATS as an underdog and 40-34 on the road; as road ‘dogs the Red Sox are 30-19 ATS.

However, like the moneyline -155 may be too juicy to get any value. You may want to look at the O/U.

LEAN RED SOX +1.5 (-155).

Over/Under

While both teams trend towards the Over, the books think this will be a lower-scoring game than average. However, Texas at home has the highest Over rate in MLB (62.3%) while Boston on the road has the 5th best Over percentage (55.6%).

Crawford has been solid on the road this season, but he logged a season-high 4.73 ERA in August and he’s notched a 6.48 ERA across 2 starts in September.

BET OVER 8.5 (-110).

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Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Boston Red Sox (16-9) begin a four-game series with the Texas Rangers (10-15) Thursday at Globe Life Field. The first pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Rangers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Martin Perez gets his fifth start for the Red Sox. He is 0-1 with a 5.71 ERA (17 1/3 IP, 11 ER), 1.67 WHIP, 4.7 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 this season. He played for the Rangers for his first seven MLB seasons.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 3 2/3 IP with 2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 3 K in Boston’s 6-5 victory over the Seattle Mariners Friday.
  • Career vs. Rangers: 1-0 with a 4.91 ERA (11 IP, 6 ER), 1.64 WHIP and 4.1 K/9 in 2 starts.

RHP Kyle Gibson takes the mound for the Rangers Thursday. He is 2-0 with a 2.30 ERA (27 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 5 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 6 IP with 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 5 K in Texas’ 2-1 loss to the Chicago White Sox Saturday.
  • Career vs. Red Sox: 2-4 with a 3.63 ERA (44 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.08 WHIP and 6.6 K/9 across 7 starts.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Red Sox at Rangers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:40 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Red Sox -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Rangers +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox -1.5 (+125) | Rangers +1.5 (-155)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Rangers 4, Red Sox 2

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the RANGERS (+105) for a half unit only because the Red Sox are 8-1 on the road this season. Texas has the better starter on the rubber and there’s some “reverse line movement”.

After getting tuned up on Opening Day, Gibson has four straight quality starts, including a win over the defending AL champion Tampa Bay Rays.

Also, nearly three-fourths of the money is on the Red Sox’s money line, according to pregame.com; however, bookmakers are making the Boston side cheaper despite the one-sided action.

It’s a red flag when the House makes the more popular side cheaper and it’s generally more profitable to “fade” rather than follow the crowd in sports betting.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Rangers +1.5 (-155) because I like this game to go Under the total since both starting pitchers are off to a solid start and I’d entertain throwing the Texas money line into a parlay with another similarly priced side.

What’s holding me back is that I’m a cheapskate and don’t want to pay the extra vig in betting against a Boston team that has the second-best run line record as a road team since the start of last season.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET UNDER 9 (-115) for 1 unit since I have faith in both starters.

Perez has a better hard-hit rate and exit velocity than your average MLB starter and the Rangers struggle against left-handed pitching.

Texas has four lefty bats in its lineup and is bottom-5 as a team in wRC+, OPS and wOBA against left-handed pitching.

Also, Gibson has been lights out after his first start this season. Statcast grades Gibson in the 79th percentile of hard-hit rate, 72nd percentile in barrel% and 76th percentile of whiff%.

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