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Boston Red Sox at Washington Nationals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Boston Red Sox at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

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The Boston Red Sox (63-57) and Washington Nationals (54-67) meet Thursday at 4:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network) to close out a 3-game series at Nationals Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

Boston had just 4 hits in Wednesday’s 6-2 loss, and the Red Sox own a mere .545 OPS in this series. The Crimson Hose have struggled in games against the Senior Circuit as they are 19-23 against the NL.

Since July 8, Washington is 13-3 at home. Over those 16 games, the Nationals have banged out an .817 OPS.

Red Sox at Nationals projected starters

LHP Chris Sale vs. LHP Patrick Corbin

Sale (5-2, 4.52 ERA) is tabbed for his 13th start. He has logged a 1.12 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 in 63 2/3 inning.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 7 K in a 5-2 home win over the Detroit Tigers Friday
  • 2023 road stats: 4-2, 5.34 ERA in 32 IP in 6 starts
  • Has faced the Nationals once in his career (2 1/3 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 3 BB on Oct. 3, 2021)
  • Making his 2nd start off the IL (left scapula)

Corbin (7-11, 4.85 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.50 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 through 137 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 H, 1 R (0 ER), 7 BB, 2 K in 6-2 loss at Philadelphia Phillies Aug. 10
  • 2023 home stats: 3-7, 4.78 ERA in 69 2/3 IP in 12 starts
  • Has faced Boston twice in his career: 0-2, 8.22 ERA in 7 2/23 IP (2013-16)

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Red Sox at Nationals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:35 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Red Sox -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Nationals +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox -1.5 (-115) | Nationals +1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Red Sox at Nationals picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 6, Nationals 5

Moneyline

At 4.36 runs per game and 5.07 RPG allowed, the Nats are a bit too far over their skis with their overall record. Both runs scoring figures aren’t fully supported by analytics either, so Washington is certainly a fade candidate in a vacuum.

But a 2nd start off an IL visit is usually a turn from which to steer clear. And Boston owns a whiff-heavy .644 OPS vs. lefty pitching since the break.

AVOID.

Run line/Against the spread

Same as above. This isn’t a great game for betting sides. PASS.

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Over/Under

The Nationals have banged the ball around at home of late. Sale starting for Boston swings the Nats around to their best platoon side (.772 OPS vs. left-handers).

With pitching being the negative here and with both sides being bottom-third units defensively, BACK THE OVER 9.5 (-110) on a warm night with an outward breeze in the forecast.

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Boston Red Sox at Washington Nationals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Boston Red Sox at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Boston Red Sox (62-56) and Washington Nationals (53-66) meet Tuesday at 7:05 p.m. ET to open a 3-game series at Nationals Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting since Boston swept 3 games in 2021

Boston hits the road after a 5-5 home stand. The Red Sox are 1-game under-.500 (27-28) on the road this season. They are 4 games under .500 (18-22) against NL teams.

The Nationals have struggled at home this season, but not of late. Since July 8, Washington is 12-2 in D.C. Over those 14 games, the Nats have banged out an .824 OPS.

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Red Sox at Nationals projected starters

RHP Nick Pivetta vs. RHP Josiah Gray

Pivetta (8-6, 4.16 ERA) is tabbed for his 11th start. He has logged a 1.17 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 in 97 1/3 innings across 28 games (10 starts).

  • Last start: Win, 5 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 8 K in a 4-3 win over the Kansas City Royals Wednesday
  • 2023 road stats: 2-2, 3.61 ERA in 42 1/3 IP in 12 games (4 starts)
  • Last 5 starts vs. Nationals: 0-5, 11.25 ERA in 20 IP (2018-19)
  • Has authored a 2.54 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 39:7 K:BB across 28.1 IP since the All-Star break

Gray (7-9, 3.69 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.44 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 126 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 5 K in 5-4 win at Philadelphia Phillies Tuesday
  • 2023 home stats: 3-5, 5.17 ERA in 47 IP over 9 starts
  • Has faced Boston once as a starter: allowed 1 R on 3 H in 6 IP Oct. 2, 2021
  • Owns a 5.87 ERA, 1.48 WHIP at home since 2021
  • Owns an 80.4% left-on-base rate; has allowed a .250 batting average on balls in play in high-leverage situations

Red Sox at Nationals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:24 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Red Sox -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Nationals +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox -1.5 (-105) | Nationals +1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Red Sox at Nationals picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 6, Nationals 4

Moneyline

Gray is enough of a fade candidate to make Boston a lean. At 4.34 runs per game and 5.09 RPG allowed, the Nats are also a tad overcooked as a ball club.

Catch a better Sox price on the run line. PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

The Washington offense has gotten a big, somewhat lucky, boost from a .321 BABIP in high-leverage situations at the plate. Gray has needed 173 pitches to go just 8 1/3 innings over his last 2 starts. He’s allowed 15 baserunners and 9 runs over those 2 turns.

There is some risk here with the way the Nats have played at home lately. But Boston has some value here. FanDuel Sportsbook has the better price on this one: RED SOX -1.5 (+100). Consider going with a partial-unit play as the lean is moderate at best.

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Over/Under

The Nationals have posted a .776 OPS over their last 10 games and an .824 mark over their last 14 games at Nationals Park.

Gray is suspect here and so is the Boston bullpen to a small extent. Both sides rate as bottom-third defensively.

Again, FanDuel’s price offers more leverage here. On a warm evening in D.C., BACK THE OVER 9 (-110).

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Boston Red Sox at Washington Nationals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Boston Red Sox at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with expert MLB picks and predictions.

The Boston Red Sox (90-70) and Washington Nationals (65-95) continue a three-game series Saturday with a 4:05 p.m. ET first pitch at Nationals Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Red Sox vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Tanner Houck is the projected starting pitcher for Boston. He is 1-5 with a 3.80 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 11.1 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 through 64 IP over 17 games (12 starts).

  • Returns to the rotation after three straight appearances as a reliever.
  • Owns a 4.50 ERA through 26 IP on the road but has given up 9 earned runs over 10 IP in his last three outings as a visitor.

RHP Josiah Gray is the projected starter for the Nationals. Through 13 games (12 starts), he is 2-2 with a 5.85 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, and 4.3 BB/9 across 64 2/3 IP.

  • Looks to be coming out of a shaky stretch that saw him allow 16 runs over 13 1/3 IP from Sept. 5-Sept. 17. Allowed 5 runs across 11 1/3 IP in two starts since.
  • Is a fly-ball pitcher who has been hurt by home runs but the rookie righty didn’t yield any homers in his last two starts.

Red Sox at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:50 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Red Sox -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Nationals +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox -1.5 (+100) | Nationals +1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Prediction

Red Sox 6, Nationals 3

Money line (ML)

Boston won Friday’s opener 4-2 and the Red Sox continue to fight for their playoff lives. They enter Saturday’s action one game behind the New York Yankees and one ahead of the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners in a four-way tussle for two AL Wild Card spots.

The Nationals haven’t been playing for anything and have had an abysmal second half. They’re just 16-39 since Aug. 2. Offense has not been the problem for Washington (.762 OPS over those last 55 games), but its pitching staff owns a 5.61 ERA since the All-Star break.

Houck is underrated by his surface line. With a bit of humidity and an outward breeze in the weather forecast, conditions are not favorable for a fly-baller like Gray facing a slugging team like the Red Sox. BACK THE RED SOX (-160).

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Figure on Boston having the edge on the mound throughout, from the starter innings to the bullpen and the playoff energy is significant here.

BACK THE RED SOX -1.5 (+100).

Over/Under (O/U)

Too many cross signals in trying to sneak some analytics under the radar and find value. PASS.

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Boston Red Sox at Washington Nationals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Boston Red Sox at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with expert MLB picks and predictions.

The Boston Red Sox (89-70) and Washington Nationals (65-94) open a three-game series Friday with a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch at Nationals Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Red Sox vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Eduardo Rodriguez is the projected starting pitcher for Boston. Rodriguez is 11-8 with a 4.93 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, and 2.6 BB/9 over 151 2/3 IP through 30 starts.

  • Owns a 2.93 ERA over his last three starts.
  • Has pitched through the traffic of a .365 batting average on balls in play.

LHP Josh Rogers is the projected starter for the Nationals. He is 2-1 with a 2.73 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 5.8 K/9, and 3.3 BB/9 across 29 2/3 IP over five starts.

  • Has been hit fairly hard but has benefited from a .230 BABIP and a 93.5% left-on-base rate.
  • Allowed 4 walks and 2 home runs over 4 2/3 IP at the Cincinnati Reds in his last start.

Red Sox at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:45 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Red Sox -205 (bet $205 to win $100) | Nationals +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Road -1.5 (-120) | Home +1.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Prediction

Red Sox 6, Nationals 4

Money line (ML)

Boston has endured a nightmare since winning seven straight games from Sept. 14-22 and taking firm control of the race for the top AL Wildcard slot. The Red Sox were swept by the New York Yankees last weekend at Fenway Park and then dropped 2-of-3 at the Baltimore Orioles earlier this week.

Now the BoSox head into the season’s final weekend trailing the Yankees by two games for the Wildcard home game and fighting for their lives just to make the postseason at all.

The Nationals haven’t been playing for anything and have had an abysmal second half. The Nats are just 16-38 since Aug. 2. That bats haven’t been the problem for Washington (.761 OPS over those last 54 games), but its pitching staff owns a 5.63 ERA since the All-Star break.

The Sox are the lean in Friday’s opener, but figure the true odds being bracketed by these prices: PASS ON THE MONEY LINE.

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Rodriguez has certainly been BABIP-undone in a lot of starts. Expected ERA metrics have the Sox lefty in the low-to-mid-3s, and his recent starts fit with that. Figure on Boston having the edge on the mound throughout, from the starter innings to the bullpen relief.

BACK THE RED SOX -1.5 (-120).

Over/Under (O/U)

The Nats are at their best against left-handers. The Red Sox will be in pour-it-on mode with an eye on the out-of-town scoreboard. Consider holding out for a better price, but TAKE THE OVER 9.5 (+100).

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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