Real Madrid welcomes English Premier League-leading Manchester City to Santiago Bernabéu Tuesday for the first leg of a UEFA Champions League semifinal. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Real Madrid vs. Manchester City odds, and make our best Champions League bets, picks and predictions.
This match will have a final-like feel as these teams are among the best in the world. Real, which beat Liverpool 1-0 in the 2022 Champions League final, took down Chelsea a combined 4-0 in its 2 quarterfinal battles. Real also beat Liverpool a combined 6-2 in the Round of 16. Real sits 3rd in La Liga and averages 2.09 goals per game in league play.
Man City recently took over the top spot in the Premier League and averages 2.41 goals per game. City defeated Bayern Munich a combined 4-1 in the quarterfinals and RB Leipzig a combined 8-1 in the Round of 16. Man City is led by F Erling Haaland, who has 35 goals in 32 matches.
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Real Madrid vs. Manchester City odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 9 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Real Madrid +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Manchester City +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Draw +250
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: -145 | U: +105)
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Real Madrid vs. Manchester City picks and predictions
Prediction
Real Madrid 1, Manchester City 1
Moneyline (ML)
SPRINKLE DRAW (+250).
Man City is the best team in the world, but it will be on the road against a team with a good track record against EPL opponents.
Real took down Chelsea 2-0 in both matches in the quarterfinals and defeated Liverpool 1-0 in the final last season. Real also beat City a combined 6-5 in the semifinals a year ago. Real has the talent to win, but it hasn’t been as good this season compared to last, sitting 3rd in league play.
City drew Bayern on the road in its quarterfinal road match and is 10-3-3 on the road in league play. Man City hasn’t lost since Feb. 5 and has won 13 of its last 14 games.
Ultimately, City has been surging, but on the road against a team arguably better than any other in the world against EPL sides, I would take DRAW (+250) for a fraction of a unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET UNDER 2.5 (+105).
Both teams have aggressive offense with high-quality finishers, but Man City is coming off a match in which it had just 2 goals against a likely relegation side in Leeds United.
Man City has gone Under in both its road matches in the knockout rounds, and it had under 2 expected goals in 3 of its 4 knockout stage matches. In EPL play, Man City allowed just 0.91 goals per game (31 in 34 matches).
Madrid had gone Under in 3 of 4 knockout stage games and has an equally as dominant defense, allowing just 0.97 goals per game in La Liga matches (32 goals in 33 games).
Combine it all and I’m confident in BETTING UNDER 2.5 (+105).
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