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The Tampa Bay Rays (22-22) take on the Boston Red Sox (22-21) Thursday in the finale of a 4-game set at Fenway Park at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Rays vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Rays lead 2-1
We’ve had 3 close games in the series, and the Rays have snuck away with 2 W’s – the last of which was a 4-3 victory Wednesday. 1B Yandy Diaz hit a 2-run single to break a 2-2 tie in the 6th and put the Rays in the driver’s seat. Diaz’s numbers are down across the board with a .253/.314./.327 slash line. He has just 3 homers but has driven in 21 primarily from the leadoff spot.
The Red Sox have shocked baseball with their MLB-leading 2.74 ERA. They are just 20th with an 8.5 K/9 but are finding ways to put up zeroes. 3B Rafael Devers leads the offensive charge with a .281 BA, 5 HR and 15 RBIs. OF Tyler O’Neill has provided the power with 10 homers on the season.
Rays at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Zack Littell vs. RHP Cooper Criswell
Littell (2-2, 3.02 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 44 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 3 K Saturday against New York Yankees
- 1 career appearance vs. Red Sox: 2 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 2 K
Criswell (2-1, 2.10 ERA) makes his 6th start and 7th appearance. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 25 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 9 K Saturday against Washington Nationals
- Has never faced Rays
- Tops out at 89 mph w/ a sinker, changeup, sweeper and cutter
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Rays at Red Sox odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:46 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Rays -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Red Sox -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays -1.5 (+155) | Red Sox +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Rays at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 5, Rays 3
Moneyline
Criswell is coming off a career-high 9 K’s against the Nats last time out. He used a changeup to go down-and-in on righties. It looks like a fastball but has a little wrinkle at the end to miss bats. The Red Sox have not lost a game he has started this season.
That trend continues. Take RED SOX -110 at home in the pick ’em.
Run line/Against the spread
I love COOPER CRISWELL OVER 3.5 STRIKEOUTS (-150). He has 4+ K’s in his last 3 starts and in 4 of 5 GS this year. The only concern for me would be that he’s topping out at 83 pitches per outing. Tampa is the 8th-easiest team to K, which makes this a slam dunk – especially since it’s -172 at some books.
Over/Under
All 3 games in this series have gone Under. It’s expected to be a chilly 56 degrees with a 10-mph gust coming straight in. That would deter me, but this is the smallest total we’ve had thus far in the series. Also, neither pitcher throws very hard. The wind won’t stop righties from blistering the Green Monster with line drives.
Take the OVER 7.5 (-115).
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