Tag: Ranking

Where Wisconsin’s class of 2025 ranks nationally after landing DT Drayden Pavey

Where Wisconsin’s class of 2025 ranks nationally after landing DT Drayden Pavey

Wisconsin landed a commitment from class of 2025 defensive tackle Drayden Pavey on Tuesday.

The news follows Pavey backing out of his original commitment to Purdue this weekend. Just days later, he now flips to the Badgers — who were among his initial finalists back in July.

Related: Wisconsin updated class of 2025 commits after flipping DT Drayden Pavey from Purdue

Pavey is commitment No. 24 for the Badgers in a class. His addition keeps the group as 247Sports’ No. 28-ranked overall class and No. 10-ranked in the new Big Ten Conference.

Big Ten recruiting classes ranked ahead of the Badgers include Ohio State (No. 1 in the nation), Oregon (No. 9), USC (No. 10), Michigan (No. 14), Penn State (No. 15), Washington (No. 18), Nebraska (No. 23), Maryland (No. 24) and Rutgers (No. 26).

Despite its ranking within the Big Ten, Wisconsin’s class is a strong follow-up output for Luke Fickell after he finished the 2024 cycle with a program-best group. The biggest difference between the two classes are their blue-chip ratios. 2025 is at 21% (5/24) while 2024 reached 50% (11/22). Otherwise, national rankings of No. 28 and No. 24, respectively, aren’t far apart.

Wisconsin will look to bring momentum from its strong play onto the field into the rest of the 2025 recruiting cycle and beyond. A win over Penn State on Saturday at Camp Randall Stadium could provide a launching point for the Fickell era with the program.

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Wisconsin’s defense is in the midst of a historic run

Stats that show Wisconsin’s current dominance

Wisconsin’s defense has been a driving force behind the team’s three-game win streak and significant improvement.

Every number and figure should back up that fact. The Badgers have allowed just one touchdown and 16 total points over the last three weeks — six to Purdue, seven to Rutgers and now three to Northwestern.

Related: ESPN FPI updates Wisconsin football win chances for remaining 2024 schedule after win over Northwestern

To put that run into context: Wisconsin’s 16 points allowed over the last three weeks is its fewest allowed over a three-game stretch in Big Ten play since 1998 — that stat via WOZN’s Zach Heilprin.

That 1998 team finished 11-1 and won the Rose Bowl. It had a mid-season run of allowing three points to Illinois, zero to Iowa and seven to Minnesota — 10 total points in the three weeks.

That is terrific company for a 2024 Wisconsin defense that started the season somewhat slow, with pedestrian outings against Western Michigan, South Dakota, Alabama and USC. The group is now up to the No. 11-ranked defense in ESPN SP+, No. 14 total defense (295.7 yards per game), No. 7 pass defense (155.9 yards per game) and No. 18 scoring defense (17.57 points allowed per game). It has become statistically one of the best units in the country.

Part of those improved totals is obviously due to playing the struggling offenses of Purdue, Rutgers and Northwestern. But a big part is also clear improvement from the unit as it continues year two under Luke Fickell and Mike Tressel — especially from the front seven and pass-rush.

While Wisconsin’s air raid offense will capture most of the national headlines moving into the team’s closing stretch, the defense has been the primary force behind the team’s resurgence.

The Badgers are back on the field on Saturday night against No. 3 Penn State. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET, 6:30 p.m. CT on NBC and Peacock.

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Wisconsin vaults up latest ESPN SP+ power rankings after win over Northwestern

Wisconsin vaults up latest ESPN SP+ power rankings after win over Northwestern

Wisconsin took another significant jump in ESPN SP+ after its 23-3 win over Northwestern on Saturday.

The victory improved the Badgers to 5-2 on the season and 3-1 in Big Ten play. It also pushed the team up from No. 32 (No. 64 on offense, No. 16 on defense) in ESPN SP+ to No. 20 (12.0 overall rating — No. 63 on offense, No. 11 on defense).

Related: ESPN FPI updates Wisconsin football win chances for remaining 2024 schedule after win over Northwestern

The Badgers are now the metric’s 5th-highest-ranked Big Ten team, behind only Ohio State at No. 1 (29.1), Oregon at No. 5 (24.6), Penn State at No. 6 (24.4) and Indiana at No. 12 (18.8). SP+’s latest update sees the Badgers inch toward the tier of the elite teams of the conference.

Wisconsin moves forward to a primetime matchup with Penn State, a game that may define each team’s season. For the Badgers, it is a chance for a program-defining upset at home in front of a national audience. The Luke Fickell era would benefit greatly from a statement performance and a true announcement of arrival.

For Penn State, it’s close to a must-win with a showdown against Ohio State on the horizon.

The Badgers remaining games after Penn State are against SP+’s No. 23 team Iowa (11.4), No. 5 Oregon (24.6), No. 32 Nebraska (9.6) and No. 42 Minnesota (7.3).

Wisconsin’s combined margin of 117-16 over its three-game win streak over Purdue, Rutgers and Northwestern signals clear improvement from Fickell’s team and program. Its improved SP+ ranking reflects that.

The Badgers now have a chance to take an even further step with wins over Penn State or Oregon. They could factor into what will be a down-to-the-wire Big Ten race.

For what it’s worth, ESPN’s Bill Connelly listed the Badgers among the teams significantly overachieving compared to SP+ projects as of late. One of those signature upset victories could make the team one of the surprises of the college football season.

The Badgers and Nittany Lions will kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET, 6:30 p.m. CT at Camp Randall Stadium. The game will be broadcast on NBC — streaming on Peacock.

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Florida climbs back into Football Power Index top 25 after Week 8 win

According to ESPN’s FPI rankings, the Florida Gators are a top-25 college football team after whipping the Wildcats at home.

Florida football scored a crucial win on its homecoming weekend this Saturday, opening up the offense while displaying some tenacious defense to uncork a 48-20 rout of the visiting Kentucky Wildcats.

The victory puts the Gators back over the .500 mark with a 4-3 overall record and an even 2-2 mark in Southeastern Conference play. Things will get much harder after next week’s bye, but for now, there is plenty to rejoice.

While the ‘Cats have not been particularly sharp this fall, [autotag]Billy Napier[/autotag]’s squad showed continued improvements on the field and did not skip a beat after losing QB1 [autotag]Graham Mertz[/autotag] for the season. Freshman [autotag]DJ Lagway[/autotag] led the charge, not just on the scoreboard but also up the postgame rankings as well.

Florida football’s FPI ranking, rating

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, Florida moved up five spots from No. 27 to No. 22, putting the Orange and Blue back in the top 25 while its overall FPI rating improved by 2.6 points from 8.7 to 11.3 following the victory. That puts the Gators between the No. 21 Boise State Broncos and No. 23 South Carolina Gamecocks.

Florida is now given a 55.8% chance of winning six games this fall — up from 33.8% last week — along with a 0.2% chance of winning out, as well as a 0% chance of winning the conference, a microscopic 0.4% chance of making the College Football Playoffs, a 0.1% chance of making the championship game and a 0% chance of winning the national title. The FPI’s final record predicts currently sits at 5.7-6.3.

SEC teams in FPI

The top five programs in the rankings got a bit of a shakeup, with the Texas Longhorns (27.2 rating) falling to No. 2 overall after getting beat by the still-No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs (22.9) on Saturday. The Alabama Crimson Tide (23.2) are wedged between the two despite taking their second loss of the season, remaining at No. 3 while the Ole Miss Rebels (22.1) also stood pat at No. 5.

The Tennessee Volunteers (21.0), who beat ‘Bama in Knoxville, moved up a spot to No. 6 to wrap up the SEC teams in the top 10. The rest of the top 25 is represented by LSU Tigers (12th, 16.9), Texas A&M Aggies (14th, 15.7), Missouri Tigers (20th, 12.2), Florida and South Carolina (11.1).

The remainder of the conference schools in the FPI are the Oklahoma Sooners (29th, 8.7), Arkansas Razorbacks (31st, 7.7), Auburn Tigers (32nd, 7.4), Kentucky Wildcats (41st, 5.7), Vanderbilt Commodores (42nd, 5.4) and Mississippi State Bulldogs (60th, 2.0).

About ESPN’s FPI

“The Football Power Index is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season,” according to ESPN.

“FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

Coming up for Florida

The Gators are off next week due to their bye week. The next matchup for Florida will be against the Georgia Bulldogs on Nov. 2 in Jacksonville. That game will kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET and can be seen on ABC.

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Wisconsin climbs ESPN FPI after Week 8 win over Northwestern

Wisconsin climbs ESPN FPI after Week 8 win over Northwestern

Wisconsin continues to trend positively in ESPN FPI after a third consecutive victory, this one a 23-3 win over Northwestern.

The Badgers rose three spots in the metric from No. 28 to No. 25 after the performance. They are up nearly 30 spots over the last few weeks after entering Week 7’s game at Rutgers ranked No. 54. FPI is paying attention to Wisconsin’s apparent resurgence — its three straight wins by a combined point margin of 117-16.

Related: ESPN FPI updates Wisconsin football win chances for remaining 2024 schedule after win over Northwestern

Movement across the Big Ten now sees Wisconsin ranked as the No. 6-best team in the conference, behind only Ohio State (No. 1), Oregon (No. 8), Penn State (No. 9), Indiana (No. 11) and USC (No. 15).

It moves forward to a tough finishing stretch with games against Penn State (No. 9), Iowa (No. 26), Oregon (No. 8), Nebraska (No. 58) and Minnesota (No. 45). FPI’s rest-of-season forecast for Wisconsin against that schedule includes a projected final record of 7.4 — 4.6, a 96.1% chance to reach bowl eligibility, a 0.9% chance to win the Big Ten and a 1.7% chance to make the College Football Playoff.

Wisconsin (5-2, 3-1 Big Ten) can take a big step toward Playoff contention with a home win over Penn State (6-0, 3-0 Big Ten) on Saturday. The game is quickly becoming one of the biggest of the Luke Fickell era to date.

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Wisconsin reenters Josh Pate’s ‘JP Poll’ top 25 entering Week 8

Wisconsin reenters Josh Pate’s ‘JP Poll’ top 25 ranking entering Week 8

The Wisconsin Badgers have returned to the top 25 of national college football analyst Josh Pate’s weekly rankings.

The Badgers rocketed up to No. 19 overall after their second consecutive blowout victory — the latest a 42-7 win over Rutgers. Wisconsin leaped an entire 20-25 group of SMU, Louisville, Arkansas, Utah, Florida and Boise State.

Related: Badgers Wire staff predictions for Wisconsin Badgers at Northwestern football

Pate lists Wisconsin as his seventh-best Big Ten team, behind Ohio State (No. 1), Oregon (No. 4), Penn State (No. 9), USC (No. 15), Iowa (No. 17) and Indiana (No. 18).

He also emphasis that the list is a power rating as opposed to a power ranking — much like ESPN SP+. It works to evaluate a team solely based on its quality and not on its resume. That explains Ohio State’s place at No. 1 despite losing at Oregon on Saturday.

Here is Pate’s full top 25:

https://twitter.com/JoshPateCFB/status/1846359028231729543

All metric systems have significantly upgraded the Badgers after their back-to-back blowout wins. Wisconsin fans feel as if the team has turned the corner, and most rating systems agree with that sentiment.

Next up for the Badgers is a road trip to Evanston, Illinois on Saturday to face the Northwestern Wildcats. A third consecutive decisive win would push the Badgers to 5-2 on the season and 3-1 in Big Ten play, and could see the team enter the AP Top 25 for the first time this season.

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Wisconsin (might) control own destiny to make 2024 Big Ten title game

Wisconsin (might) control its own destiny to make 2024 Big Ten title game

Wisconsin improved to 4-2 on the 2024 season and 2-1 in Big Ten play with a dominant 42-7 win over Rutgers on Saturday.

The Badgers now ride a two-game winning streak with wins by a combined margin of 94-13. That hot streak has greatly improved the team’s standing after it started the season 2-2 and 0-1 in Big Ten play. The resurgence also has the group on a steady climb in ESPN’s FPI and SP+ metrics — creating a rest-of-season outlook that looks brighter by the week.

Related: ESPN FPI updates Wisconsin football win chances for remaining 2024 schedule after Week 7 win over Rutgers

This win streak is no fluke. The Badgers appear to have significantly improved in several key areas. One big driving factor: Luke Fickell’s group has finally built a clear identity. That includes dominating up front on offense, running the ball with Tawee Walker, connecting on explosive plays to WRs Vinny Anthony and Trech Kekahuna, and playing strong, sound, penalty-free defense.

Wisconsin’s on-field improvement has bowl eligibility now looking like a near certainty — an important status as Fickell works to build the program in his second year in charge. Notably, the improvement has also opened the possibility of a program-defining upset win over Penn State or Oregon when they visit Madison, Wisconsin later this fall.

Thanks to Oregon’s win over Ohio State on Saturday, that pair of potential upsets make it so Wisconsin controls its own destiny to make the Big Ten title game.*

*(Note: the tiebreakers become extremely confusing with half of the conference at either 3-0 or 2-1. This is the extent to how far into the different scenarios I’ve gotten. The declarative statement is that the Badgers ‘might’ control their own destiny to make the conference title game)

Current Big Ten Standings:

  • Indiana (3-0), Oregon (3-0), Penn State (3-0)
  • Illinois (2-1), Ohio State (2-1), Nebraska (2-1), Iowa (2-1), Michigan (2-1), Wisconsin (2-1)
  • Minnesota (2-2), Washington (2-2)

Here’s why Wisconsin would (probably) make the title game if it wins out:

  • Wisconsin would close with wins over Northwestern, Penn State, Iowa, Oregon, Nebraska and Minnesota. That’s a 10-2 (8-1 Big Ten) record with the only conference loss coming to USC
  • The Badgers would have the head-to-head tiebreaker over both Oregon and Penn State — that is again if they win both games
  • Illinois lost to Penn State and Ohio State lost to Oregon, so Wisconsin would edge both teams in tiebreaker No. 2: record against common opponents (neither Illinois nor Ohio State plays USC)
  • Wisconsin would have head-to-head wins over both Nebraska and Iowa, eliminating them from contention
  • Michigan could win out and edge Wisconsin with a better record against common opponents (it beat USC earlier this year). That is where things get extremely complicated, as Wisconsin, Michigan and Indiana could all be tied at 8-1

These things will work themselves out. Michigan is extremely unlikely to run the table with remaining games against No. 22 Illinois, No. 2 Oregon, No. 16 Indiana and No. 4 Ohio State. But the chance of it winning all of those games would make the tiebreakers extreme to follow.

Obviously, this is a glass-3/4-full outlook on the rest of Wisconsin’s season. But the weekly look at the Big Ten West race used to see the Badgers alive until the closing weeks of the season. Football fandom is a lot more fun when it’s possible to map out possible paths to the championship game.

The Badgers are back on the field on Saturday at Northwestern as they look for their third-straight victory, and to continue to (possibly) control their destiny to win the Big Ten.

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Wisconsin continues rise in ESPN SP+ after big win over Rutgers

Wisconsin continues rise in ESPN SP+ after big win over Rutgers

Wisconsin continued to rise in ESPN SP+ after its big 42-7 win over Rutgers on Saturday.

The win improved the Badgers to 4-2 on the season and 2-1 in Big Ten play. It jumped Luke Fickell’s group from SP+’s No. 39 overall team (No. 80 on offense, No. 19 on defense) to No. 32 overall (No. 64 on offense, No. 16 on defense).

Related: ESPN FPI updates Wisconsin football win chances for remaining 2024 schedule after Week 7 win over Rutgers

The Badgers are now the metric’s 10th-highest-ranked Big Ten team, behind Ohio State at No. 2, Penn State at No. 6, Oregon at No. 7, Indiana at No. 15, Iowa at No. 19, Michigan at No. 21, Nebraska at No. 22, USC at No. 27 and Washington at No. 28.

They now proceed with games against Northwestern (No. 71 in SP+), Penn State (No. 6), Iowa (No. 19), Oregon (No. 7), Nebraska (No. 22) and Minnesota (No. 41) to close the season.

Bowl eligibility looks likely for the Badgers after the back-to-back blowout wins over Purdue and Rutgers. The team could still accomplish much more, however, if those big-time home matchups against Penn State and Oregon turn into wins.

https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1845492367429701703

Wisconsin’s combined 94-13 margin over Purdue and Rutgers signals a possible ‘turning of the corner’ for Fickell’s group, and possibly the program as a whole. SP+ agrees, as Wisconsin has risen from No. 66 in the nation to No. 32 after the two wins.

A strong showing on Saturday at Rutgers would continue that forward momentum and enter the Badgers into the national conversation.

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Wisconsin rockets up ESPN FPI power rankings after big win over Rutgers

Wisconsin rockets up ESPN FPI rankings after big win over Rutgers

The Wisconsin Badgers (4-2, 2-1 Big Ten) are trending in the right direction after a second consecutive dominant win, this a 42-7 road victory over Rutgers.

The team’s two recent wins over Purdue and Rutgers have been by a combined margin of 94-13. That level of dominance had not been seen during the Luke Fickell era — signaling substantial growth in his second year in charge.

Related: ESPN FPI updates Wisconsin football win chances for remaining 2024 schedule after Week 7 win over Rutgers

One accurate barometer of the team’s current trajectory is its ESPN FPI.

Wisconsin entered the week 54th in the metric, 10 spots behind Rutgers. After the win, Wisconsin is up 26 spots, to 28th, in the nation. That rise includes a new projected final record of 6.9 — 5.1, an 86.2% chance to reach a bowl game and a rising 1.8% chance to make the College Football Playoff.

The Badgers are the seventh highest-rated team in the Big Ten behind Ohio State (No. 2), Oregon (No. 8), Penn State (No. 9), USC (No. 13), Indiana (No. 15) and Iowa (No. 23).

Wisconsin’s rest-of-season outlook has changed dramatically over the last few weeks. The remaining schedule has games against Oregon, Penn State, Nebraska and Iowa. But the Badgers are on a steep ascent and are quickly becoming a team nobody in the conference wants to face.

Fickell’s team is back on the field next Saturday at Northwestern (3-3, 1-2 Big Ten). Another strong showing would only continue what has become a potential program resurgence.

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Wisconsin starting tackle PFF’s highest-graded Big Ten lineman from Week 6

Wisconsin starting tackle PFF’s highest-graded Big Ten lineman from Week 6

Wisconsin left tackle Jack Nelson was ProFootballFocus’ highest-graded Big Ten offensive lineman from Week 6.

He earned an overall grade of 90.1 in the Badgers’ big 52-6 win over the Purdue Boilermakers.

Related: Wisconsin updated depth chart for Rutgers game sees true freshman running back enter two-deep

Nelson is a significant part of an offensive line that has been arguably Wisconsin’s biggest strength through its first five games of the 2024 season. The unit was solid in tough losses to Alabama and USC, then had an all-around dominant showing against Purdue.

Last Saturday saw the line lead the Badgers offense to 589 total yards (361 passing, 228 rushing), 28 first downs and seven touchdowns, all without allowing a sack.

PFF’s grades only confirm Nelson’s strong play leading the group. The redshirt senior is one of several on the line who have improved their performance in the second year under coordinator Phil Longo.

Nelson’s current form is great news for his chances at being selected in the upcoming NFL draft. The four-year starter has had ups and downs — with the rest of the Wisconsin offensive line. His trajectory on the blindside of a line that appears to be improving by the week could see him rise to an early day two selection.

First, he’ll need to continue his strong performance against a challenging remaining schedule. The Badgers first face a good Rutgers defense in Week 7, then have remaining games against top teams including Penn State (No. 6 in ESPN SP+), Iowa (No. 29), Oregon (No. 7) and Nebraska (No. 26).

Key No. 1 to Wisconsin succeeding against that schedule and extending its record bowl streak is continued strong play from Nelson and the offensive line.

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