Tag: Rangers Diamondbacks odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

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The Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks play Game 4 of the 2023 World Series on Tuesday. First pitch from Chase Field in Phoenix is scheduled for 8:03 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Rangers vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

World Series: Rangers lead 2-1

The Rangers scored 3 runs in the top of the 3rd inning, and the big blow was a 2-run homer by SS Corey Seager. He is well on his way to earning World Series MVP honors if the Rangers end up bringing home the trophy. LHP Jon Gray came on for the relief win after RHP Max Scherzer exited in the 4th inning with a tight back.

The Diamondbacks were able to cobble together just 3 singles and 3 doubles, although Arizona did outhit Texas 6-5.

Texas remained perfect on the road in the postseason (9-0), while it is just 2-4 at home. The Under cashed in Game 3, snapping a 7-0-1 run to the Over for the Rangers.

Arizona slipped to 3-2 at home in the postseason, dropping the past 2 outings. The Under cashed, and it is 4-2 in the past 6 games overall. At home, the Under is 4-1 in 5 outings in the playoffs to date.

Rangers at Diamondbacks projected starters

LHP Andrew Heaney vs. LHP Joe Mantiply

Heaney was 10-6 with a 4.15 ERA in 28 regular-season starts and 6 relief appearances. He had a 1.38 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 147 1/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 0 K in 10-3 loss vs. the Houston Astros in Game 4 of the ALCS
• 2023 road splits: 3-3, 4.29 ERA (63 IP, 30 ER), 13 HR in 12 starts and 3 relief appearances
• Making 3rd career postseason start and 6th overall appearance

Mantiply made 4 starts in the regular season and 32 relief appearances, going 2-2 with a 4.62 ERA. He had a 1.13 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 in 39 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 1 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 1 K in 6-5 win vs. the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 4 of the NLCS
• 2023 home splits: 1-0, 3.44 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 0 HR in 1 regular-season start and 15 relief appearances
• Making 2nd career postseason start and 9th overall appearance

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Rangers at Diamondbacks odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:17 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Rangers -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Diamondbacks -106 (bet $106 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rangers -1.5 (+142) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-172)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Rangers at Diamondbacks picks and predictions

Prediction

Rangers 5, Diamondbacks 3

Moneyline

The RANGERS (-110) are worth playing in Game 4, as Texas hasn’t lost on the road in these playoffs. Until such time, you just have to keep rolling with Texas.

In addition, the Diamondbacks (-106) are doing the opener and bullpen game. While Arizona has done it before in these playoffs, using Mantiply for an inning against Philadelphia, it’s a tall order against the red-hot Rangers.

Run line/Against the spread

The RANGERS -1.5 (+142) are worth playing lightly in Game 4. Texas has won by 2 or more runs in 3 of the past 4 victories dating back to Game 6 of the ALCS.

The Diamondbacks +1.5 (-172) are 4-2 on the run line in the past 6 games as an underdog, winning outright in 3 of those contests.

Over/Under

The UNDER 9.5 (-115) is the lean in Game 4.

The Over cashed in the 1st 2 games in Arlington, but the Under was the right side in Game 1 until Seager provided the late-inning heroics.

The Over is 7-1-1 in the past 9 games for the Diamondbacks, so you’ll be going against the grain. The public is crushing the Under at a nearly 4-to-1 clip after Game 3, and that makes me nervous siding with them. However, as the intensity ratchets up, and get closer to crowning a champ, runs will be at more of a premium.

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The Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks meet in Monday’s Game 3 of the World Series. First pitch at Chase Bank Field in Phoenix is slated for 8:03 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Rangers vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Ted 1-1

Texas earned a 6-5, extra-inning comeback win in Game 1 Friday. Then, toting an .828 postseason OPS in Saturday, the Rangers were limited to just 4 hits in a 9-1 setback in Game 2.

The Diamondbacks, which took 3 of 4 from the Rangers in the regular season, filed crooked numbers in 4 innings Saturday, including the 7th, 8th and 9th, en route to their Game 2 rout. But aside from walking 10 batters in  Game 1, its been Arizona pitching lifting the Snakes to key wins of late. Over the club’s last 4 postseason games, Arizona has registered a 2.41 ERA.

Rangers at Diamondbacks projected starters

RHP Max Scherzer vs. RHP Brandon Pfaadt

Scherzer was 13-6 with a 3.77 ERA in 27 regular-season starts with the Mets and Rangers. He had a 1.12 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 152 2/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 2 2/3 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 2 K in 11-4 road ALCS Game 3 win vs. Houston Astros Oct. 23
• 2023 road stats (regular season): 8-4, 4.31 ERA in 85 2/3 IP across 15 starts
•  ESPN’s match-up stats reveal that current Arizona hitters own an aggregate .566 OPS against him.
• Postseason: 7-8, 3.86 ERA in 140 IP (6 2/3 IP this season, allowing 7 R)

Pfaadt went 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA across 18 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.41 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 96 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 4 BB, 7 K in 4-2 NLCS Game 7 win vs. Philadelphia Phillies Tuesday
• 2023 home stats (regular season): 2-5, 6.46 ERA in 46 IP across 10 starts
• Faced the Rangers once during the regular season: allowed 7 R (including 4 HR) on 9 H in 4 2/3 at Texas May 3 in his Major League debut
• Postseason: 2.70 ERA in 16 2/3 IP (all this October)

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Rangers at Diamondbacks odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 6:49 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Rangers -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Diamondbacks -110 (bet $100 to win $110)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rangers -1.5 (+150) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-185)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Rangers at Diamondbacks picks and predictions

Prediction

Diamondbacks 6, Rangers 5

Moneyline

Scherzer was left off the roster for the ALDS, as he was still recovering from ar./shoulder strain. He pitched in Games 3 and 7 of the ALCS, allowing a combined 7 R on 6 2/3 IP. In those games, he was tagged with a lot of hard contact. Even assessing his 3.77 regular-season ERA, a .265 batting average on balls in play makes him a fade candidate here.

Other series match-up indicators — looking at performance vs. expected performance and seeking value margins — lean toward the Rangers. But with Arizona being 3-1 at home this October and 9-4 across its last 13 games in Phoenix, DIAMONDBACKS (-110) is worth some partial-unit action.

Run line/Against the spread

Juice added here, and that bloats the Arizona price too much. PASS.

Over/Under

Including the 1st 2 games of this series, the Over has cashed in 6 of the last 7 Arizona-Texas games. Texas results have hit the Over in 32 of the club’s last 51 games (+14.35 units, 25% ROI).

That’s the lean for Monday, with the hitting on display so far mixed with the Scherzer fade and two bullpens who figure as being too far over their skis with postseason ERAs of 3.04 (Arizona) and 3.90 (Texas).

But again the Scherzer lack of work, and even Pfaadt’s to an extent, add some gray area that regular-season betting isn’t usually clouded by. Go in with a half-measure or so on the OVER 9 (-110).

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The Texas Rangers (72-53) and Arizona Diamondbacks (65-61) play the finale of a 2-game set at Chase Field Tuesday. First pitch is at 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Rangers vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Diamondbacks lead 2-1

The Rangers have lost 5 in a row after the 4-3 defeat in 11 innings Monday in the series opener. They still hold a 1 1/2-game lead over the Houston Astros in the AL West. Texas is 30-29 on the road as opposed to 42-24 at home this season.

The Diamondbacks have won 6 of 7 games and are 8-2 over their last 10. However, they are still just 11-19 over their last 30 games. Arizona is just a half-game out of the final NL Wild Card spot.

Rangers at Diamondbacks projected starters

RHP Jon Gray vs. RHP Zac Gallen

Gray (8-6, 3.52 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 127 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K Wednesday against the Los Angeles Angels
• Last 5 starts vs. Diamondbacks: 0-1, 7.43 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 28 K in 26 2/3 IP

Gallen (13-5, 3.17 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 162 IP.

• Last start: Win, 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 3 K Thursday at San Diego Padres
• 2 career starts vs. Rangers: 0-1, 4.63 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 14 K in 11 2/3 IP

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Rangers at Diamondbacks odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:41 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Rangers +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Diamondbacks -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rangers +1.5 (-190) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+155)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Rangers at Diamondbacks picks and predictions

Prediction

Diamondbacks 4, Rangers 3

Moneyline

The Rangers are struggling to score runs. They plated 14 runs in the last 5 games, and 8 of those came in 1 game. Gallen has been great, allowing 3 ER in 19 1/3 IP over his last 3 starts. He’s also a massive home-road split pitcher. He’s 10-1 with a 1.82 ERA in the desert and 3-4 with a 4.46 ERA on the road.

Take the DIAMONDBACKS (-125).

Run line/Against the spread

The Diamondbacks are 30-32 on the RL at home this season, and Texas is 32-27 on the road. I like the Texas +1.5 (-190) side here, but we’re not paying nearly double the return.

PASS.

Over/Under

As mentioned, Gallen is great at home and has been great in his last 3 starts. Gray has also allowed just 1 ER in 14 IP over his last 2 starts. Texas is 4-6 O/U over the last 10, and Arizona is 4-5-1. The Over is 6-4 over the last 10 meetings between the teams, but with these 2 hurlers going today, I’ll LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-115).

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