NFC playoff picture: Rams still in the hunt for No. 1 seed

The Rams can clinch a playoff berth with a win over the Jets on Sunday.

The Los Angeles Rams took care of business to open Week 14, knocking off the New England Patriots on Thursday, 24-3. As a result, they were able to sit back and watch the rest of the NFL duke it out on Sunday afternoon and night, hoping to get some help with a couple of upsets over teams L.A. is jockeying for position with.

They didn’t get much assistance from the rest of the NFC, with the Saints being the only team to fall in truly surprising fashion; they lost to the Eagles in Philadelphia. The Packers, Seahawks, Bucs and Cardinals all won, with Green Bay overtaking the top spot in the conference.

Here’s a look at the current playoff picture in the NFC with all 16 teams having played their Week 14 game already. Each team’s Week 15 opponent is noted.

  1. Packers (10-3): vs. Panthers
  2. Saints (10-3): vs. Chiefs
  3. Rams (9-4): vs. Jets
  4. Washington (6-7): vs. Seahawks
  5. Seahawks (9-4): at Washington
  6. Buccaneers (8-5): at Falcons
  7. Cardinals (7-6): vs. Eagles
  8. Vikings (6-7): vs. Bears
  9. Bears (6-7): at Vikings

If the playoffs started today, the Rams would host the Bucs in the first round of the playoffs. The Packers would get a bye, the Saints would host the Cardinals and Washington would play the Seahawks at home.

Because the Cardinals are 7-6, the Rams haven’t yet clinched a playoff berth. Arizona can technically still overtake L.A. for a playoff spot and keep the Rams out of the playoffs, but that would take a minor miracle to happen.

The Rams have a better chance to secure the No. 1 seed than they do to miss the playoffs. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Rams have a 5% chance to earn a first-round bye with the top seed in the NFC, which is coincidentally the same odds they have to win the Super Bowl.

It’s still unlikely the Rams will earn the No. 1 seed, considering the Packers and Saints are both 10-3. In order for that to happen, the Saints would need to finish 1-2, as would the Packers, and the Rams would have to win out. It’s unlikely, but their 5% chance is better than it was last week (2%).

Here are the Packers’, Saints’ and Rams’ remaining schedules:

  • Packers: vs. Panthers, vs. Titans, at Bears
  • Saints: vs. Chiefs, vs. Vikings, at Panthers
  • Rams: vs. Jets, at Seahawks, vs. Cardinals

The Rams’ playoff chances sit at better than 99% entering Week 15, and their odds to clinch the NFC West are 64% compared to 35% for the Seahawks. The division will likely come down to their Week 16 meeting in Seattle.

Next week against the Jets, the Rams can actually clinch a playoff berth by simply beating the winless New York team. That would move them to 10-4 and out of reach of the Cardinals, regardless of whether they win out due to tiebreakers.

If the Rams beat the Jets and Seattle beats Washington in Week 15, the Rams can still win the NFC West. However, in that scenario, they wouldn’t be able to secure the division title until Week 17.

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Rams Week 14 rooting guide: 5 games that could impact playoff picture

The Rams already won on Thursday night, but fans should have a close eye on some key games Sunday.

The Los Angeles Rams can sit back and relax on Sunday afternoon as the rest of the NFL takes the field in Week 14. Having already won on Thursday night, the Rams are in a great spot at 9-4, holding the No. 3 seed in the NFC right now.

There are several games still remaining this week that could impact playoff seeding, depending on the results of those matchups. The Rams can’t move down in the seeding no matter what happens on Sunday, but they can improve their standing with some help.

Here are five teams the Rams should be rooting for this weekend as the regular season winds down.

PFF lays out best- and worst-case scenarios for Rams in 2020

If 6-10 is the Rams’ floor, what is their ceiling?

Heading into last season, and even the 2018 campaign, it was hard to imagine the Rams finishing well below .500. They had Super Bowl aspirations both years, and while they nearly capitalized on that belief in 2018, they fell way short of expectations last season with a 9-7 record.

Heading into the upcoming season, there isn’t nearly as much hype surrounding the Rams – not like last year after their Super Bowl appearance. They currently have just the 16th-best odds to win it all this season, tied with the Cardinals, Browns and Titans.

Given the losses they suffered this offseason and their daunting schedule in the NFC West, it’s easy to imagine the Rams finishing right at or below .500. However, they still have a promising quarterback in Jared Goff, one of the best wide receiver tandems in the league (Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods), two of the most dominant defensive players in football (Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey) and a head coach who reached the Super Bowl in just his second season.

For that reason, the Rams could conceivably win the division and make a deep playoff run if the pieces come together just right. Pro Football Focus sees both sides as being possible, laying out the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Rams in 2020.

Using simulations of the upcoming season, PFF predicted the 10th-percentile and 90th-percentile outcomes for each team. The Rams’ worst-case scenario is a 6-10 finish, with PFF citing persistent issues on the offensive line and an unproven linebacker group getting “tested early and often.”

As for the Rams’ best-case scenario, it’s an encouraging 11-5 record. Here’s PFF’s explanation for that possible outcome.

How they get there: The offensive line getting healthy and improvements from guys such as Rob Havenstein creates a more stable offensive environment for Goff. As we saw in 2018, particularly early that year, Goff can look like one of the better quarterbacks in the league when he has clean pockets to work from.

Even with the loss of Brandin Cooks, there are still guys he can get the ball to. Robert Woods is one of the more underappreciated wide receivers in the NFL, and Cooper Kupp has been one of the league’s most effective slot receivers over the past several years. That step forward on offense, along with a defense that’s highlighted by the star power of Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, is enough to get the Rams back to the playoffs.

It’s a testament to how far the Rams have come that a 9-7 record last season was considered a huge disappointment, whereas that would’ve been a colossal success during Jeff Fisher and Steve Spagnuolo’s tenures. Not to mention, they were inches from a win over the Seahawks last season as Greg Zuerlein’s game-winning field goal try sailed just wide of the upright.

If they can stay healthy and the offensive line improves even marginally, we should see a better Rams team in 2020. They did suffer some key losses on offense and defense, but their additions in the draft will help offset them. Don’t be surprised to see the Rams once again in contention this season.