The Purdue Boilermakers (5-4, 3-3 Big Ten) and No. 20 Illinois Fighting Illini (7-2, 4-2) meet for a key Big Ten West battle Saturday in Champaign. Kickoff at Memorial Stadium is slated for noon ET (ESPN2). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Purdue vs. Illinois odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Purdue sits a game behind Illinois, along with 3 other Big Ten West teams (Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin) heading into this mid-November tussle. And the Boilermakers have lost to 2 of those squads (Iowa, Wisconsin) in their last 2 games. Purdue, a 3.5-point favorite at home, was trounced 24-3 by Iowa last Saturday.
Illinois, which is No. 21 in the College Football Playoff rankings, had a 6-game winning streak snapped by Michigan State last week. The Illini lost at home as 16.5-point favorites 23-15 despite outgaining the Spartans 441 yards to 294.
Rankings courtesy of the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
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Purdue at Illinois odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 7:20 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Purdue +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Illinois -270 (bet $270 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Purdue +6.5 (-107) | Illinois -6.5 (-113)
- Over/Under (O/U): 44.5 (O: -109 | U: -111)
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Purdue at Illinois picks and predictions
Prediction
Illinois 27, Purdue 17
Moneyline
Illinois had been really good in Memorial Stadium games until running into a Michigan State team that came up big on the defensive end of power-running situations. UI still outgained MSU by a hefty chunk and has outgained every visitor by at least 94 total yards in games at home.
Purdue is also solid against the run, but look for Illinois to have more in the toolbox for this week.
Peg the prices here as bracketing a -250 profit point for Illinois. PASS.
Against the spread
Illinois did not cover last week, and it did not cover in a weird 9-6 softball game against Iowa — which plays an outlier style — on Oct. 8. Aside from those 2 games, Illinois is 5-0 ATS since Sept. 10. And all 5 wins were by margins of 9 points or more.
Purdue wants to throw the ball (297 passing yards per game, 16th FBS). The Illini defense (152.6 passing yards allowed per game, 2nd FBS) and the weather (30s, breezy, chance of precipitation) stand in the Boilermakers’ way.
Look for more quality drives out of Illinois and a key red-zone stop or 2 for the UI defense. BACK THE ILLINI -6.5 (-113).
Over/Under
The Under is a slight lean, even after some drop in the number from earlier in the week. But the lean is not actionable. PASS.
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