Tag: prototype

Saints make an unconventional pick in this 2024 NFL mock draft

The Saints made an odd pick in this 2024 mock draft. Alabama’s Dallas Turner is a talented pass rusher, but he needs to get his weight up get on their radar:

It’s no secret that the New Orleans Saints pass rush needs to step up. They’re going into Week 10 tied for the fourth-fewest sacks around the league (17) and ranking tenth-worst in pressure rate (19.7% at Pro Football Reference). Carl Granderson is a productive rusher, but Cameron Jordan is past his prime, and the Saints haven’t gotten much out of backups Tanoh Kpassagnon and Isaiah Foskey with Payton Turner on the mend.

So it’s no surprise that the latest 2024 mock draft has the Saints picking a dynamic young pass rusher. Pro Football Focus analyst Trevor Sikkema has the Saints going with Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner at No. 19 overall, who would add a lot of juice for New Orleans up front:

“It feels like it’s going to be a trench pick for the Saints this offseason, whether that’s the offensive or defensive line. With a lot of the top offensive tackles already off the board, Turner is a good value pick here for New Orleans. He is more of an outside linebacker type of edge player and is having a career year as a pass-rusher for the Crimson Tide, sporting a 17.3% pass-rush win percentage. Turner has always displayed good explosiveness, but he is flashing added strength this season, too.”

Turner’s talents aren’t in question. It’s whether his playmaking ability could convince the Saints to break from their established prototypes at defensive end. Turner weighed in at 6-foot-4 and 242 pounds for spring camp this year, up a couple of pounds from his playing weight last season. And that doesn’t compare favorably to the players Allen has picked in his stops with the Saints, Raiders, and Broncos.

That’s almost ten pounds lighter than Khalil Mack (6-foot-2.5, 251) was coming out of college; Von Miller was a little heavier (6-foot-2.5, 246), too. That was a decade ago and these days Allen has a preference for heavier players out on the edge. Barring a sudden change, he’ll continue to stick to it. Look at the listed weights on the Saints’ website roster:

  • Tanoh Kpassagnon: 6-foot-7, 289 pounds
  • Cameron Jordan: 6-foot-4, 287 pounds
  • Kyle Phillips: 6-foot-4, 277 pounds
  • Payton Turner: 6-foot-6, 270 pounds
  • Jordan Willis: 6-foot-4, 270 pounds
  • Niko Lalos: 6-foot-5, 269 pounds
  • Isaiah Foskey: 6-foot-5, 265 pounds
  • Carl Granderson: 6-foot-5, 261 pounds

These listed weights aren’t all accurate (Granderson, for example, bulked up to 285 pounds for training camp last year) but the point is that Turner would need to put on at least 20 pounds to even get on the field for the Saints — at least in the role he’s best at, rushing against left tackles off the edge.

If the Saints did draft Turner he’d likely be stuck in the same role as Zack Baun. Another accomplished pass rusher coming out of college, the Saints converted the 6-foot-3, 225-pound Baun to an off-ball linebacker role where he’s dropping into coverage on 55.2% of his snaps on passing downs. For comparison, Turner is playing in coverage on just 25.7% of passing plays this season, an uptick from the 22.2% he experienced earlier in his career. Maybe his college coaches are preparing him for the kind of assignments he would see from NFL coaches like Allen.

Still, it’s frustrating to see a skilled pass rusher coming up from the college ranks and projected to go off the board when the Saints are expected to be on the clock while knowing they wouldn’t play him to his strengths — if they’d even consider drafting him. Turner’s proven production as a pass rusher and high-end athleticism will likely put him on their radar, but if the team is still running Allen’s defensive scheme, it’s tough to see Turner fitting into it.

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Setting the New Orleans Saints’ athletic prototype at defensive tackle

The Saints don’t have a more pressing team need than defensive tackle. We’re setting their athletic prototype at the position with five years of data:

The New Orleans Saints don’t have a more pressing team need than defensive tackle, so it’s good to see the 2023 NFL draft on the horizon. This year’s rookie class should bring them plenty of options at getting better along the defensive line, especially the interior; but the Saints are notoriously strict in their athletic prototypes, so it’s worth looking into the list of prospects and finding who meets their standards and who comes up short of the mark.

To find out what the Saints value, we looked into the scouting report of every defensive tackle to play for them since the 2018 season, which gave us averages and minimums for a variety of measurements and athletic testing results. Here are the minimums the Saints have used in each category at defensive tackle since at least 2018, with averages in parentheses:

  • Height: 6-foot-1 (6-foot-2)
  • Weight: 280 pounds (301 pounds)
  • Arm length: 32 inches (32.9 inches)
  • 40-yard dash: 5.1 seconds (5.02 seconds)
  • 10-yard split: 1.8 seconds (1.74 seconds)
  • 3-cone drill: 7.8 seconds (7.52 seconds)
  • Short shuttle: 5 seconds (4.62 seconds)
  • Vertical jump: 28 inches (30.1 inches)
  • Broad jump: 8-foot-5 (9-foot-1)

They aren’t nearly as demanding with the athleticism of interior linemen as edge players, but the Saints do still have standards they try and maintain. Both of their lightest defensive tackles since 2018, Margus Hunt and Kentavius Street, entered the NFL at around 280 pounds but played for New Orleans at 287 or higher. As Dennis Allen is fond of saying, they believe it’s a big man’s game in the trenches.

With that in mind, here are some draft prospects who fall short of the minimums in two or more categories (including athletic testing results, which you can find here). In many cases it isn’t the height or weight or length that’s an issue, but the movement skills:

  • Jerrod Clark, Coastal Carolina
  • Keondre Coburn, Texas
  • DJ Dale, Alabama
  • Siaki Ika, Baylor
  • Tyler Lacy, Oklahoma State
  • Calijah Kancey, Pittsburgh
  • PJ Mustipher, Penn State
  • Jaquelin Roy, LSU

Notably, the list of players who hit every benchmark (at least in the drills they completed) includes Mazi Smith (Michigan), Byron Young (Alabama), Keeanu Benton (Wisconsin), Moro Ojomo (Texas), Zacch Pickens (South Carolina), Adetomiwa Adebawore (Northwestern), and Bryan Bresee (Clemson). And of that smaller pool, only Bresee, Pickens, and Adebawore came close to meeting the positional averages, but they’re each under 300 pounds. Benton came close but his 40 time was off by 0.06 seconds.

So don’t expect the Saints to split hairs to such an obsessive degree. They aren’t going to pass on good players because of a hundredth of a second or a couple eighths of an inch. The full evaluation weighs those shortcomings against other traits and positive marks on the scouting report. Some prospects may have too many areas of concern to ignore, but many of them will be considered anyway. The Saints are too thin at defensive tackle right now to be too picky.

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Setting the New Orleans Saints’ athletic prototype at defensive end

2023 NFL draft: Setting the New Orleans Saints’ athletic prototype at defensive end and considering which prospects they may be ruling out

Everyone knows the New Orleans Saints favor size and length at defensive end — head coach Dennis Allen said as much at NFL owners meetings last week, identifying those physical attributes as a big factor in setting the position’s athletic prototype.

We can argue over how flexible the Saints should be when it comes to evaluating prospects, but with the 2023 NFL draft rapidly approaching, it’s worth looking into the factors they’ve shown us they value. To that end, we tracked the height, weight, arm length, and athletic testing results for all 14 defensive ends to have joined the Saints since 2018 and found average results as well as minimum standards that they all met.

Sure, there were some outliers here or there. But for the most part those were players who only signed with the practice squad or who were picked up in free agency after proving they could overcome some athletic limitations on another roster. Here are the minimums the Saints look for in each category at defensive end, with averages in parentheses:

  • Height: 6-foot-2 (6-foot-4)
  • Weight: 252 pounds (268 pounds)
  • Arm length: 32 inches (33.5 inches)
  • 40-yard dash: 4.91 seconds (4.78 seconds)
  • 10-yard split: 1.76 seconds (1.67 seconds)
  • 3-cone drill: 7.63 seconds (7.31 seconds)
  • Short shuttle: 4.67 seconds (4.45 seconds)
  • Vertical jump: 29 inches (32.1 inches)
  • Broad jump: 9-foot-1 (9-foot-8)

Again, we’ve seen the Saints overlook a prospect’s height, short arms, or poor 40-yard dash time or whatever in the past, but they have standards they do try and maintain. The lightest defensive ends they’ve fielded over the last five years, Al-Quadin Muhammad (253 pounds) and Carl Granderson (254 pounds), were both asked to bulk up before they saw heavy minutes. And in both cases those players brought the height and length New Orleans was looking for.

So what can we do with this information? For one thing, we can attempt to whittle down the list of prospects the Saints may be scouting in this year’s draft. The following players project to play defensive end for New Orleans, but fail to qualify for two or more of the athletic minimums we listed above:

  • Byron Cox, Tennessee: 6-foot-2, 250 pounds, 32.5-inch arms
  • Nick Hampton, Appalachian State: 6-foot-2, 238 pounds, 33.5-inch arms
  • Isaiah Land, Florida A&M: 6-foot-3, 236 pounds, 32.5-inch arms
  • Nolan Smith, Georgia: 6-foot-2, 238 pounds, 32.5-inch arms
  • Jose Ramirez, Eastern Michigan: 6-foot-2, 242 pounds, 32.7-inch arms

There are other defensive end prospects who might struggle to sway the Saints from sticking to their standards, like Iowa State pass rusher Will McDonald IV (who weighs in at 239 pounds) and USC’s inside-out lineman Tuli Tuipulotu (whose 32.2-inch arms are just barely fitting over the minimum). Michigan’s Mike Morris didn’t hit the threshold in either the 40-yard dash (4.95 seconds) or the vertical jump (28.5 inches). That’s going to hurt his grade from where New Orleans is standing.

But quality game tape and convincing interviews can overcome it. It’s happened before. The Saints are always evaluating these benchmarks and tweaking them to make sure they aren’t cutting off good players for arbitrary reasons. They’re more stern than most when it comes to evaluating college talent, but there’s still some wriggle-room for good players to make their case. Stay tuned to see how it shakes out on draft day.

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