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The five best NFL player prop bets to make for the upcoming week.
We’ve identified five Week 1 prop bets that look very promising. We have a bruising running back scoring a touchdown, two veteran players hitting under their projection, and two of the top wide receivers in the league going over their projected numbers.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
A snapshot look at the NFL betting lines and odds for Week 1 sports betting and DFS action.
A good way to start your weekly homework for DFS (daily fantasy sports) play is to analyze the early Vegas odds around Week 1.
These guys have a long history of making money off of setting the right game spread and points scored. So it can be an early indicator of teams to target due to high-scoring potential, and teams to avoid for the opposite reason.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
OFF = No odds currently listed.
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Use our staff’s weekly pick’em against the spread and straight up for the win.
NFL picks are provided for straight up (moneyline) and against the spread (ATS) NFL pick pools.
Each week’s spread picks are graded by the line as of when the person entered their picks. This will create situations in which a movement of the line can result in two participants having the correct pick but with different teams chosen during an individual game.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
DMD – David Dorey, SG – Steve Gallo, HS – Harley Schultz, CC – Cletis Cutts, CJB – Cory Bonini, HCG – HC Green, KH – Kevin Hickey
A snapshot look at the NFL betting lines and odds for Week 1 sports betting and DFS action.
A good way to start your weekly homework for DFS (daily fantasy sports) play is to analyze the early Vegas odds around Week 1.
These guys have a long history of making money off of setting the right game spread and points scored. So it can be an early indicator of teams to target due to high-scoring potential, and teams to avoid for the opposite reason.
Note: Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
OFF = No odds currently listed.
[betwidget_betmgm]
The five best NFL player prop bets to make for the upcoming week.
It’s not just the games that bettors can get a piece of each week of the NFL season. There are more than 1,000 prop bets that can be made each week.
With most teams as healthy as they’re going to be all season, we selected five players to shine the spotlight on. They include one of the league’s best running backs in an in-state rivalry, a pair of quarterbacks with contrasting rushing styles, a quarterback who was most successful mixing in the run a lot, and a wide receiver scoring a touchdown against one of the worst pass defenses in the league.
Note: Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
These bets are among the smartest wagers to make in Week 1.
Our long NFL slumber since the days when winning or losing meant something – on the field or in your online account – is over. This weekend will be the first full-table feast, and we’ve picked out five betting matchups to keep your attention throughout the afternoon – a game to go Over, a game to go Under, a couple of Super Bowl-caliber teams putting their foot on the neck of a lesser team, and a moneyline cash grab.
Your NFL betting guide for all of the top wagers of Week 1.
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After the long wait since February, every team is starting fresh and looking to make a statement in Week 1. For half the teams, panic will set in as they look to avoid starting 0-2 and digging themselves an early hole. But for now, every fan base is looking for brighter days ahead – starting with a statement win in Week 1.
New BetMGM customers can sign up today and get a First Bet Offer up to $1,500 using bonus code USAT. Just download the BetMGM app, deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game. If your first bet loses, you will receive bonus bets in the amount of your bet (up to $1,500). Just make sure you use bonus code USAT when you sign up. Bet Now!
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. CO, DC, IL, IN, KS, LA, MD, MS, NJ, NV, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY. Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA). 21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Visit BetMGM.com for Terms & Conditions. US promotional offers not available in DC, New York or Ontario.
The Lions are the darlings of the prediction crowd and are getting a lot of respect from the gambling crowd, who have made the Chiefs a smaller-than-expected home favorite (4.5 points at -110 for both the Lions and Chiefs). While I agree the Lions are going to likely finish the year as division champs, they’re going to start the season losing to the defending world champs in their yard. Take the Chiefs and lay 4.5 points (-110).
The Panthers went on a fire sale before the trade deadline and a lot has changed since. Both teams made splash picks early in the 2023 draft – Carolina using the first pick on Bryce Young and the Falcons adding All-World running back Bijan Robinson at No. 8. The Over/Under is the second-lowest of the week (39.5 points at -110 Over, -110 Under). It makes sense. Young isn’t going to take chances, and the Falcons are going to run the ball a lot. This game has 20-16 written all over it. Take the Under of 39.5 points (-110).
The only double-digit point spread favorite of the week are the Ravens (10 points at -100 for both teams). There’s a reason for that. The Texans are in a rebuild, and the Ravens are healthy (which they haven’t been able to say often the last couple years). Healthy Ravens are dangerous Ravens, especially at home. Take Baltimore and lay 10 points (-110).
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The Bengals have the requirements to win the Super Bowl, but the Battles of Ohio are often bloody. The Over/Under is significant (47.5 points at -110 for both). While both offenses are capable of lighting up the scoreboard, a division battle like this will be more field position and field goals than 60-yard bombs. Take the Under of 47.5 points (-110).
The Jaguars are looking to show they’re ready for the big time, while the Colts are turning the page to a new era. Jacksonville is a solid road favorite (5 points at -110 for both). Anthony Richardson has all the tools to be a great quarterback, but his debut is likely to be a little rocky, and the Colts won’t have Jonathan Taylor. The Jags will take advantage of that. Take the Jaguars and lay 5 points (-110).
Nobody had the run of luck that Minnesota did last year – winning 11 one-score games. The reason the Vikings couldn’t put away opponents like a 13-4 team should have is that their defense was (and is) brutal. Minnesota is a heavy favorite (6 points at -110 for both). While I believe the Vikings will win, don’t give away that many points. Take the Buccaneers plus 6 points (-110).
Most point-spread betting lines when they’re set look to have the same return. The Saints are the biggest investment as a favorite (3 points at -105 Titans, -115 Saints). It won’t be shocking if it goes to 3.5 points before Sunday, because the Saints are the capable of winning by much more than a field goal. Take the Saints and lay 3 points (-115).
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The 49ers are a legitimate Super Bowl contender but are playing a 1 p.m. ET game (10 a.m. local time) against a defense that doesn’t get pushed around. The 49ers should find a way to win, but this one has the potential to be dominated by the defenses. The Over/Under is low (41 points at -110 for both), but it should have been lower. Take the Under of 41 points (-110).
The Commanders are viewed as the last-place favorite in the NFC East, but they’re a huge favorite in this one (7 points and -110 for both teams). That’s because, until further notice, the current version of the Cardinals will be a touchdown or larger underdog most weeks. Take the Commanders and lay 7 points (-110).
The oddsmakers know the story with this rivalry. It’s been like a hammer and a nail for three decades. The faces have changed, but the Packers dominate this series. The Bears are a tepid home favorite (1 point), and it’s because Green Bay’s defense is what will keep them in playoff contention. The dominance continues. Take the Packers on the moneyline (+100).
The fact of the matter is that Bill Belichick is a .500 coach without Tom Brady. Yet, he still gets the respect his legacy has earned, which explains why the Eagles are such small favorites (4 points at -110 for both). The Eagles are a bad opponent with which to change that downward trend. Take the Eagles and lay 4 points (-110).
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The Sean Payton era begins with the hopes of improving the expectations that were crushed last season. The Jimmy Garoppolo era in Vegas begins in unfriendly confines. The Over/Under isn’t absurd (44 points at -110 for the Over and Under). Russell Wilson is a game manager, at best, at this point. That gives you the feeling, barring a couple of Wilson bombs dropping out of the thin Colorado air, this is too high an O/U. Take the Under of 44 points (-110).
This game has the highest Over/Under of the week (51 points at -110 for both). These are two of the most explosive big-play offenses in the NFL and, even if a team gets behind by 17 points, it doesn’t mean the game is over. It may take until late in the game to hit, but take the Over of 51 points (-110).
The Seahawks are solid favorites and it’s more because the Rams are struggling than Seattle is dominant. The Over/Under is up there (46 points at -110 for both). Without Cooper Kupp, a lot of Rams are going to have to step up. Not enough of them will do their part to score enough points. Take the Under of 46 points (-110).
This rivalry is always a physical battle. The Cowboys are road favorites (3 points at -115 Cowboys, -105 Giants). With everyone healthy to start the season, Dallas has more explosive playmakers on both sides of the ball than the Giants. They will make enough big plays to win the night. Take the Cowboys and lay 3 points (-115).
The hype train is going to be crazy for this one. Buffalo has dominated the division but are a minimal favorite (2.5 points at -110 for both teams). Aaron Rodgers makes his Jets debut and will ride the emotion much like Brett Favre did a decade and a half earlier. Buy into the hype … for this game anyway. Take the Jets on the moneyline (+115).
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Use our staff’s weekly pick’em against the spread and straight up for the win.
NFL picks are provided for straight up (moneyline) and against the spread (ATS) NFL pick pools.
Each week’s spread picks are graded by the line as of when the person entered their picks. This will create situations in which a movement of the line can result in two participants having the correct pick but with different teams chosen during an individual game.
New BetMGM customers can sign up today and get a First Bet Offer up to $1,500 using bonus code USAT. Just download the BetMGM app, deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game. If your first bet loses, you will receive bonus bets in the amount of your bet (up to $1,500). Just make sure you use bonus code USAT when you sign up. Bet Now!
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. CO, DC, IL, IN, KS, LA, MD, MS, NJ, NV, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY. Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA). 21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Visit BetMGM.com for Terms & Conditions. US promotional offers not available in DC, New York or Ontario.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
DMD – David Dorey, SG – Steve Gallo, HS – Harley Schultz, CC – Cletis Cutts, CJB – Cory Bonini, HCG – HC Green, KH – Kevin Hickey
The five smartest player prop wagers of Week 1.
You never really know what you’re going to see making Week 1 prop bets. Teams are as healthy as they’re going to be all season and expectations are high for every fanbase.
It gets easier to make prop bets during the season when injuries create defensive vacuums that are exploited. We will see similar to what Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp did last year – the numbers had to keep getting higher to the point where if you wanted to take the Over. Kupp would need nine catches for 105 yards, and I cashed on him consistently.
For Week 1, we take four players who have never played a down for their current team and one mainstay. Get the popcorn ready.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.
Which NFL player prop bets should you make in Week 1?
The prop bet is the unsung bet for those looking to cash in on specific players instead of whether a team wins or loses. Many times the best bets are taking the Over on an Over/Under with a team you think is going to get hammered. The Over/Under on Justin Herbert as the season went along speaks to how to ride a trend before everyone else notices. For Week 1, we just look at numbers that seem either too high or too low as we wait to see how defenses rise or fall moving forward into the season.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Sept. 10, at 11:00 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.
The problem with betting on rushing yards for Alvin Kamara during his career is that he has always had a sidekick who significantly cut into his time – whether Mark Ingram or Latavius Murray. Now he has neither, yet his opening week rushing line has an OVER/UNDER of 59.5 yards (-114 for both the Over and the Under). Without Drew Brees, Michael Thomas or Murray, I wouldn’t be surprised is Kamara gets 30 touches in some form or another. He doesn’t need a lot of rushing attempts to hit that number. Take the Over.
One of the favorite weekly prop bet players is Tyreek Hill of the Chiefs. He is so over-the-top dominant deep downfield some defensive coordinators will let Travis Kelce catch 10 short passes to prevent one or two bombs to Hill. His Over/Under (82.5 yards at -114 for both the Over and Under) is about where you would expect a Hill line to be. Cleveland is going to try to take the air out of the ball with their run game, but Patrick Mahomes is going to have his deep shots dialed up for Hill, and he may need only two downfield plays to hit this number. Take the Over.
As a rookie, Justin Herbert quietly made those who bet the Over rich because he topped 265 yards 11 of the 15 games he played. His Week 1 Over/Under (260.5 at -114 for both the Over and Under) seems shockingly low. The only reason the “Washington Team to Be Named Eventually” made the playoffs last year was because it quietly had one of the most dominant defenses in the league. Herbert is going to be feeling heat on the snap like he didn’t see as often in his rookie season. He may win the game, but Take the Under.
The Arizona Cardinals are going to be playing in Tennessee on West Coast Body Clock time, which historically isn’t good. The Cards are a trendy pick to be a come-up team this season – all four teams in the NFC West are legitimate playoff contenders – but going into Tennessee at 10 a.m. Arizona time doesn’t sound like a team hitting on all cylinders. DeAndre Hopkins has a legitimate Over/Under (84.5 yards at -114 for both) that will take some doing to meet. But, this is a game that should heavily favor Tennessee to control the tempo and require the Cardinals to throw a lot. If Kyler Murray is going to throw a lot, Hopkins has to be the first look more times than not. Take the Over.
The Pittsburgh Steelers had an embarrassment of riches in the Le’Veon Bell years. He was a three-down back who could hurt you a lot of ways. But, after a bitter divorce a couple of years ago, the Steelers invested a first-round pick – a franchise rarity – to take Najee Harris. The door is wide open for him to be “The Man” from Day 1. He has a modest Over/Under (62.5 yards, -125 Over, -103 Under). On the road at Buffalo is far from a guarantee of ground success, but Harris is going to likely get 15 or more carries, which should easily state his case. Take the Over.
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