Tag: probability

Ranking all 32 NFL teams (including the Saints) by playoff probability

Ranking all 32 NFL teams (including the long-shot New Orleans Saints) by playoff probability going into Week 17:

Derek Carr and Dennis Allen haven’t exactly guided the New Orleans Saints to the playoffs. They’re facing elimination from the postseason altogether on Sunday; a loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would put the NFC South out of reach, and a couple of other games’ results could put the final nails in their coffin.

ESPN’s NFL Football Power Index gives the Saints a 10.9% chance of reaching the playoffs going into Week 17. If New Orleans can’t win the NFC South, they’ll need both the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks to lose out in the final two weeks so they can get that seventh wild-card spot. It isn’t very likely.

Here’s where the Saints rank among the rest of the league per ESPN’s playoff percentages:

Pro Football Focus gives Saints solid probability to win Super Bowl LIV

Pro Football Focus analysis gave the New Orleans Saints solid probability of winning Super Bowl LIV but they need to win the NFC South first

The New Orleans Saints can clinch their third straight division title during Week 13 of the NFL regular season, but they have a bigger goal in mind: winning Super Bowl LIV. But they’re not alone — other contenders are beginning to stand out from the crowd, including the NFC-rival San Francisco 49ers and two would-be AFC champions (the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens).

According to win probability numbers put together by the analysts at Pro Football Focus, the Saints are in great position to go all the way.

Unlike a season ago, when it was the consensus that the Saints were the frontrunner in the NFC, the attention right now is fixated not on New Orleans but San Francisco, despite the Saints’ 9-2 record and the league’s second most valuable receiver, Michael Thomas, having compiled 104 catches through 11 games and two starting quarterbacks. The Saints have a 36% chance to get home-field throughout the NFC playoffs for the second time in as many years, and they have a 73% chance to earn a bye. Should they get home-field, their odds of winning the Super Bowl increase to over 21%.

On top of those odds, the PFF team gives New Orleans a 16.7% chance of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy when it’s all said and done; that number trails the Patriots (26.5%) by a sizable distance, but it’s better than what the 49ers and Ravens received.

It’s due to the schedules each team is set to face going into the postseason, as well as their past success when playing on the road versus at home. Obviously it benefits the Saints to control homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, but it’s fascinating to see that made quantifiable. Here’s hoping they can take the first step towards accomplishing that with a win over the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday night.

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