Tag: Preview

Behind Enemy Lines: Previewing New Orleans Saints vs. Falcons

The New Orleans Saints need to defeat the Atlanta Falcons on Thanksgiving night to clinch a third consecutive NFC South division title.

[jwplayer jcPYpmHE]

The NFL’s three-game slate for Thanksgiving is headlined by the New Orleans Saints’ road trip to play the Atlanta Falcons; despite Atlanta’s sorry record (the Falcons are 3-8 on the year so far, and a combined 21-24 in the years since they blew a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI) this game has big implications for both teams. A Falcons loss could signal the end for embattled head coach Dan Quinn; it would also allow the Saints to clinch their third straight NFC South title and punch their ticket for the playoffs.

So with so much on the line, we reached out to Matt Urben over at Falcons Wire to get the best-informed perspective. Here’s what he had to say in our Q&A:

1. The Falcons handed out a beat down to the Saints and Panthers in back to back weeks, but Jameis Winston and the Bucs beat them in a boat race last Sunday. Have the Falcons found some winning strategies coming out of the bye or are they simply executing better?

It’s been a little bit of both, honestly. A lot was made of Dan Quinn relinquishing defensive coordinator duties to Jeff Ulbrich and Raheem Morris, but it comes down to the players executing and playing with confidence. The Falcons also moved Ricardo Allen to strong safety during the bye week and the coaching staff has credited him with improving the defensive communication by getting to play more in the box.

2. Julio Jones has missed two days of practice, as has starting tight end Austin Hooper. What’s the plan if neither of Matt Ryan’s top weapons can play Thursday?

Austin Hooper is almost certainly out, but Julio Jones is still a mystery. Missing practice or being limited early in the week has been pretty common for Jones, but he was noticeably in pain while playing through a shoulder injury in Week 12.Calvin Ridley has stepped up with Hooper out and has built great chemistry with Matt Ryan. Also, second-year WR Russell Gage had a career-best eight catches for 76 yards last week.

3. How is the new defensive play calling approach working? It gave the Saints trouble with six sacks against Drew Brees, but are they still getting pressure often?

The Falcons had just seven total sacks entering that Week 10 upset, and combined for 11 over the next two weeks. Desmond Trufant’s return has helped in the secondary, but the team we saw play in Sunday’s loss to the Buccaneers looked a lot like the one fans grew accustomed to seeing during those first eight weeks. Atlanta did not record a sack, but did intercept Jameis Winston twice. It wasn’t a complete drop off in terms of pressure, the team just came up short of making plays when they had the chance to.

4. What is the biggest possible difference Saints fans will pick up on in this rematch of the game they saw just a few weeks ago?

Something that may have been overlooked in that Week 10 game was just how well Atlanta’s offensive line played against a very good Saints defense. The Falcons kept things going with another stellar performance up front in Week 11.The Bucs brought them back to earth on Sunday, however, and they could struggle to protect Ryan after getting exposed last week. I expect Sean Payton to have a better game-plan this time, and to attack some of the same areas he saw Bruce Arians, go after in the Falcons secondary.

5. Alright, who’s winning this thing? What is your final score prediction?

This is one of those games that while my head says the Saints will win, my gut tells me the Falcons may get up for this one the way they did three weeks ago when these teams met. I’ll go with my head, though, and say New Orleans wins, 27-23.

[vertical-gallery id=23127]

No. 16 Notre Dame/Boston College: Keys & Predictions

Notre Dame lost four times alone on their home field in 2016. Since then they’ve lost only six times total and only once one their home field, that coming against eventual national runner-up Georgia in 2017.

No. 16 Notre Dame welcomes Boston College this weekend as Senior Day is upon us. It’s not a perfect formula seeing as plenty from the 2016 recruiting class have a year of eligibility remaining and will be back next season but take this into consideration as many will play their final game at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday:

Notre Dame lost four times alone on their home field in 2016. Since then they’ve lost only six times total and only once one their home field, that coming against eventual national runner-up Georgia in 2017.

I know that ultimate goal of another appearance in the College Football Playoff isn’t attainable but an unbeaten November for a program that has had their issues late in seasons to play hard and play well through the end is worthy of some praise, although not everything.

So how do the Irish avoid coming out flat in their final home game of 2019 and walk out victorious while preferably not hopefully not having things get overly interesting late?

Keys:

Offense:

Jeff:

Things probably aren’t going to come as easy as they did last week but I thought the diversity of the play calling last week from Chip Long was on point. Continue to use the skill sets of these young receivers like Keys and Lenzy and build their confidence. If all else fails, throw it to Claypool 🙂

Nick:

Boston College gets thrown all over all the time. Ian Book has looked very good since the last two drives against Virginia Tech, keep that rolling today and hang a big number.

Defense:

Jeff:

Stop AJ Dillon. Make BC work through the air. It’s really that simple to me. Dillon is one of the toughest players in the country to bring down and there’s no doubt the Irish have struggled against running games that can at least throw the ball a little. I’m looking at you Navy. 

Nick:

Contain the running game. AJ Dillion is great and he’s a threat in their pass game as well but David Bailey is solid too, assuming he ends up playing Saturday. Michigan made you look a fool while you went and just did the same to Navy – now take care of business against BC’s rushing attacking.

Predictions:

Jeff: Notre Dame 38, Boston College 17

Nick: Notre Dame 34, Boston College 20

Pick ‘Em: Staff picks for MSU vs. Rutgers, other college football games

Can MSU get back in the win column this week?

Michigan State football is in need of a victory in the worst way.

The Spartans have lost five straight and need to win out just to make a bowl game. Well, luckily for them, they’ve got two very winnable games left on the schedule, starting with a road trip to lovely Piscataway, NJ to take on Rutgers. Can the Spartans get back to winning or with the Scarlet Knights get their first conference win in more than two years?

Let’s get to the picks.

Wil Hunter (48-18)

Michigan State 27 – Rutgers 14

They’ve got to win this one, right? Right?! I mean it’s Rutgers. They haven’t won a B1G game since November 4, 2017! And they, most of the time, aren’t anywhere close to winning. They’re truly a bad group of five team playing in a power five conference. There’s a reason MSU is favored by 20+ points in this game: Rutgers is epically terrible! Michigan State just can’t lose this game.

If they do it will be the worst loss in the modern era of MSU football.

No. 8 Penn State 17 @ No. 2 Ohio State 38

No. 10 Minnesota 17 @ Northwestern 13

Illinois 20 @ No. 17 Iowa 28

No. 13 Michigan 27 @ Indiana 28

Texas 31 @ No. 14 Baylor 35

UCLA 35 @ No. 23 USC 38

No. 6 Oregon 31 @ Arizona State 24

TCU 28 @ No. 9 Oklahoma 42

Andrew Brewster (48-18)

Michigan State 35 @ Rutgers 7

Rutgers is the worst team in the Big Ten. Michigan State is better than them. Even with all the injuries, and the suspensions, and the losses, and the disappointments, Michigan State is a better football team than Rutgers. With Nailor and Scott back in the fold, I’m expecting this to be a beatdown that starts to restore a slight bit of optimism to what has become a putrid mess of a season.

No. 8 Penn State 14 @ No. 2 Ohio State 35

No. 10 Minnesota 17 @ Northwestern 10

Illinois 13 @ No. 17 Iowa 20

No. 13 Michigan 24 @ Indiana 21

Texas 24 @ No. 14 Baylor 31

UCLA 7 @ No. 23 USC 28

No. 6 Oregon 27 @ Arizona State 20

TCU 21 @ No. 9 Oklahoma 49

Lawson Robinson (35-22)

Michigan State 17 – Rutgers 14

There is no way I can give MSU more than two touchdowns. The offensive has not produced before, why would they produce now? Yes, Rutgers should be an easy game, but, I just cannot trust this offensive lineup nor coaching staff. The Spartans will surely walk away with a victory. It will not be a blowout game.

No. 8 Penn State 21 @ No. 2 Ohio State 28

No. 10 Minnesota 35 @ Northwestern 7

Illinois 7 @ No. 17 Iowa 14

No. 13 Michigan 10 @ Indiana 7

Texas 14 @ No. 14 Baylor 21

UCLA 7 @ No. 23 USC 12

No. 6 Oregon 28 @ Arizona State 14

TCU 14 @ No. 9 Oklahoma 42

[lawrence-auto-related count=3]

5 Matchups to Watch in Cowboys-Patriots include Cooper-Gilmore, Lewis-Edelman

There’s plenty on the line for the Dallas Cowboys in Week 12. We check out the matchups that should make all the difference.

With 22 players on the field for every play, save for the occasional mental lapses that leave 10 men on the field even when the middle linebacker notices it and refuses to call a timeout, a team sport can still be broken down into a series of individual matchups.

The Dallas Cowboys (6-4) will have their hands full when they travel to Foxboro, MA to take on the New England Patriots (9-1). It will be Dallas’ biggest game since their playoff ouster against the Rams last season and will be a true litmus test. The Cowboys have the second-best offense in the league and a suspect defense. The Patriots have the best defense in the league and a suspect offense.

Dallas’ defense has playmakers, the Patriots’ offense has Tom Brady. In other words, even the lesser parts can jump up and bite. There will be glorious matchups up and down the field, but here are a few we think fans should pay special attention to.

Jourdan Lewis vs Julian Edelman

Edelman remains Tom Brady’s best weapon, and as Jeff Cavanaugh of 105.3 The Fan points out, he’s not afraid to skirt the line between gritty and foul.

Lewis had already been starting for Anthony Brown before the latter was lost for the season with a triceps tear that required surgery. The former is the Cowboys’ best playmaker who is always near the action, and he’s a fiesty competitor as witnessed by the last-laugh culmination of a battle with a WR similar in stature and style to Edelman, Detroit’s Danny Amendola.

The two squared off in a couple sequences and things got testy along the way. That will probably be the storyline of this week’s matchup against the Super Bowl hero.

Amari Cooper vs Stephon Gilmore

When the Cowboys have the ball, getting it in the hands of Cooper is the No. 1 priority. He currently has 56 receptions for 886 yards and seven touchdowns and is on pace to break his career highs in each category if he can remain healthy for the remainder of the regular season. His 15.8 yards a reception is also a career high and it’s all based on an insane ability to to get open.

The difficult part is that Gilmore is probably the league’s best corner. Unlike Dallas’ No. 1 in Byron Jones, Gilmore travels all over the field to keep tabs on the opposition’s top target. NFL quarterbacks have just a 43.5 passer rating when throwing to a target covered by Gilmore.

There is hope, though. Marquis Brown only saw two targets against Gilmore in Week 9, but caught both. In Week 8, Odell Beckham, Jr. caught 4 of 6 targets for 49 yards and dropped another. Rookie Terry McLaurin got him for three receptions for 51 yards earlier in the year as well.

Gilmore’s true talent is shown by how QBs choose to go away from him, and that may still be Dak Prescott’s best option considering the high level of play out of both Michael Gallup and Randall Cobb.

The Patriots have the best defense, but they haven’t seen an attack the likes of what Dallas is bringing to the table.

Robert Quinn vs Marshall Newhouse

Quinn now has 8.5 sacks on the season after gathering another QB soul in the win over the Detroit Lions. He has been an absolute monster opposite DeMarcus Lawrence, who continues to be one of the most well-rounded, well-respected edge rushers in the game. Lawrence is the total package, Quinn is the true QB Hunter of the defense, and offenses tend to spend a lot of time focusing their efforts on both.

What you’re looking at above is a plotting of edge defenders. On the vertical you have Pass Rush Win Rate, a novel ESPN metric that measures how often a player wins his matchup within 2.5 seconds of the snap. Yes, that’s Quinn at the very top along with Pittsburgh’s TJ Watt (sigh).

But notice how far to the right Quinn is. The horizontal is about how often a player is being double-teamed. The Cowboys Lawrence is second only to the other Watt brother, JJ. Quinn is around seventh in that respect to.

Now for the other side of this matchup, Newhouse. He’s a turnstile.

Pro Football Focus has him as surrendering 29 pressures on the season, blaming him for six sacks of Brady along the way. Batter up.

Michael Bennett / Maliek Collins vs Shaq Mason/Joe Thuney/Ted Karras

While the edge players will be getting their work in and possibly require the Patriots to leave a tight end and/or a back in to block, the real battle should be in the middle of the line. New England has two very capable, very good guards flanking Karras, who is not very good at center. This means that the Cowboys front, which runs twists and games as much as anyone in the league, will look to get creative to get some singling up and try and collapse the pocket on Brady.

Bill Belichick vs Kellen Moore

The Cowboys are slow starters (Bobby Belt Tweet), and it’s time we recognize them for what their offense truly is, a prize fighter. You notice how when champions enter the ring, they spend time feeling their opponent out, to see what will work and what won’t, what the opponent is susceptible to?

That’s Moore’s offense.

Once Dallas figures out the way a defense has scripted their game plan, they’ve almost always been able to exploit that as the game went on.

It’s been true against every opponent in 2019 save for Dennis Allen’s Saints defense. Well, with all due respect to Allen, Belichick is in an entirely different world. It would behoov Dallas to take the gamble early and attack from the opening whistle to stretch the defense early and get the six-headed attack going in the passing game. Pass, pass, pass and then pass some more, and then when they finally give in, put Elliott and Pollard to work.

The Cowboys have an offensive EPA of 134.3 on the year, second-best in the league to the only team that was able to solve the Patriots defensive riddle, the Ravens. Their quarterback is a dual-threat, and while Prescott can run he doesn’t do it as a primary option very often. We’ll see if Moore borrows that from Baltimore’s plan of attack.

[vertical-gallery id=634451][vertical-gallery id=633628][lawrence-newsletter]