Wisconsin-Minnesota preview: game management plays a key role

Some thoughts on how PJ Fleck of the Minnesota Golden Gophers and Paul Chryst of the Wisconsin Badgers must handle Saturday’s game.

In November, the Minnesota Golden Gophers – who are preparing to face the Wisconsin Badgers on Saturday — have played two very big games: one against the Penn State Nittany Lions, the other against the Iowa Hawkeyes. Both games were hugely affected by game-management decisions. In one, Minnesota’s opponent made the game-management mistakes. In the other, P.J. Fleck made the game-management mistakes. The Gophers beat Penn State and lost to Iowa.

As Minnesota prepares to face Wisconsin in a battle for the Big Ten West Division championship, it is worth noting the large role game management has played in Minnesota’s month of November. If Saturday’s showdown is close in the final minutes, both Fleck and Paul Chryst will need to make sound and responsible chess moves. Fleck in particular has to bounce back from a brutal showing against Iowa two weeks ago.

Here was the situation: Minnesota was trailing Iowa 23-13 late in the game and had first and goal near the Iowa goal line. The play clock, however, was running down, and Fleck called one of his remaining timeouts. On third or fourth down near the goal line, one can make the argument that saving five yards is crucial in the attempt to score the touchdown, thereby necessitating the use of a timeout. That is not an ideal move to make, but it is reasonable and defensible. Calling that same timeout on first or second down is not. There are too many chances to score from the 6- or 7-yard line to justify using a timeout, especially when it is clear that a team will need to get the ball back late in the game (barring the recovery of an onside kick).

Fleck’s use of a timeout – Minnesota did score a touchdown and then failed on the conversion after the touchdown to remain down by four points, 23-19 – cost the Gophers 45 seconds they otherwise would have been able to retain on Iowa’s subsequent possession. Minnesota got the ball back after an Iowa punt, but with 45 fewer seconds than it otherwise would have had. The Gophers lost, 23-19, in part because Fleck did not properly value a timeout.

A few weeks earlier, Fleck’s opponent made the game-management blunders, influencing the shape of the battle in the second half. Penn State’s James Franklin went for two in the third quarter of a game his team trailed, 24-19. There were many plot twists left in this game, but Franklin chased a point well before the fourth quarter. When Penn State failed and Minnesota then scored a touchdown for a 31-19 lead, that point loomed large. Minnesota led by 12, not 11, which meant that when PSU was down 12, a field goal did absolutely nothing for the Nittany Lions.

Sure enough, Penn State got into a red-zone situation where – had it trailed by 11 points – a field goal would have trimmed its deficit to eight, a one-score game. Down 12, Penn State had to go for it. The Nittany Lions failed. Penn State did scramble back to score a touchdown and create a 31-26 game. PSU drove deep into Minnesota territory in the final minute, but got intercepted on a dangerous, risky throw. Had Franklin not chased the point at 24-19 in the third quarter – which meant he would have kicked a field goal later – Penn State might have had 30 points, and would have had at least 29, in that final minute. There would not have been a need to make dangerous throws in range for a winning field goal. Having to score a touchdown, though, necessitated a more aggressive approach. It blew up in Franklin’s face.

Game management – not just making individual decisions in certain moments, but understanding how decisions need to be stacked together in a big-picture view of how a team gains a path to victory – helped Minnesota beat Penn State. Game management helped Minnesota lose to Iowa. When P.J. Fleck and Paul Chryst match wits on Saturday, they will both need to be on their game… in the realm of game management.

Wisconsin’s 2017 Cotton Bowl put PJ Fleck, Paul Chryst center stage

Recalling the 2017 Cotton Bowl (January, not December) between Paul Chryst’s Wisconsin Badgers and P.J. Fleck’s Western Michigan Broncos.

The Cotton Bowl had two games in 2017: One was played in late December, when Ohio State defeated USC. The other one was played on January 2 of that year, when the Wisconsin Badgers defeated the Western Michigan Broncos, 24-16. Western Michigan was the Mid-American Conference champion, the first (and still only, to date) MAC champion to win the Group of Five championship and play in a New Year’s Six bowl. The coaching quality of PJ Fleck emerged that season, when WMU went unbeaten in the regular season and earned its big date with Paul Chryst and Wisconsin in Arlington, Texas.

This was the first really big game between Fleck and Chryst. Their second really big encounter is this Saturday, as the Minnesota Golden Gophers try to win the Big Ten West for the first time and deny the Wisconsin Badgers a rematch with the Ohio State Buckeyes in Indianapolis in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Last year’s Fleck-versus-Chryst game didn’t sizzle. I say that not because Wisconsin was on the short end, but because Wisconsin didn’t have a very good team. Minnesota was also trying to find its bearings under Fleck and gain an identity as a program. This 2019 meeting, on the other hand, is a clash of quality teams and a battle for a division championship, maybe even a ticket to the Rose Bowl (with Penn State being in the mix for that latter prize as well). It is worth looking back on the first especially significant encounter between Fleck and Chryst on a national stage.

One key note to make about that (January) 2017 Cotton Bowl was that Chryst went into battle against Fleck and offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca (who accompanied Fleck in moving from Western Michigan to Minnesota) with Justin Wilcox as his defensive coordinator. The Western Michigan-Wisconsin Cotton Bowl is therefore not a renewal of the assistant coach battle (and Broyles Award semifinalist showdown) between Ciarrocca and current UW defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard.

Yet, even though so many faces were different — Wisconsin had T.J. Watt and Vince Biegel on defense, Corey Clement and Troy Fumagalli on offense — a few details of this game are certainly worth noting in connection to what we will see this upcoming Saturday in Minneapolis.

Jan 2, 2017; Arlington, TX, USA; Wisconsin Badgers running back Corey Clement (6) and head coach Paul Chryst and tight end Troy Fumagalli (81) celebrate the win over the Western Michigan Broncos in the 2017 Cotton Bowl game at AT&T Stadium. The Badgers defeat the Broncos 24-16. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The third-down conversion rates for both teams were impressive. Western Michigan was 5 of 11, Wisconsin 7 of 11. The Badgers won this battle, and it certainly mattered in propelling them to victory. However, Western Michigan’s ability to convert a reasonable percentage of third downs enabled the Broncos to stay close. Time of possession in this game was a virtual tie: 30:05 for Wisconsin, 29:55 for Western Michigan. The Broncos kept the ball from the Badgers long enough to keep the game close. Western Michigan did cover the 8.5-point Wisconsin betting line. However, Western Michigan — with receiver Corey Davis on its roster — needed to hit the home-run pass to beat Wisconsin, and that did not happen against Wisconsin and Wilcox’s defense.

Davis had six catches for only 73 yards — 12 per catch — and was outgained by Wisconsin’s best offensive player that day. Fumagalli made sensational grabs in that contest, accumulating 83 receiving yards and powering the Badgers’ offense on a day when Clement was held to 71 yards by Western Michigan’s resolute defense.

I don’t need to tell anyone that Minnesota is more physical and skilled than that 2016 Western Michigan team. The Gophers are a much more formidable version of Fleck’s first great team in his coaching career. Nevertheless, the game flow Wisconsin established that day against Western Michigan is something Chryst and his staff will certainly want to replicate against Minnesota. If you offered Chryst a deal in which his team would get a 14-0 first-quarter lead, and get an 11-of-12 passing line for 159 yards — as Bart Houston delivered on that day — from Jack Coan, he will take it. He would sign on the dotted line. Sure, he wouldn’t like the part of the deal in which his lead running back gains only 71 yards, but the 7 of 11 number on third downs would likely lead him to accept this larger package of circumstances.

Strong third-down conversion rates, supremely efficient situational passing, and a two-touchdown first-quarter lead — with the opposing offense, coached by Fleck and Ciarrocca, not hitting a long downfield pass play — give Wisconsin and Paul Chryst a roadmap for how to play this game Saturday. The biggest concern and question mark: Can Jim Leonhard get a Fleck-busting defensive performance which was every bit as impressive as Justin Wilcox in the 2017 Cotton Bowl? More precisely, can Wisconsin’s back seven defend the RPOs and other delights the Fleck-Ciarrocca brain trust has in store for the Badgers in Minneapolis?

We will get to find out soon enough.