Previewing Friday’s Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals matchup, with MLB betting predictions, picks and best bets.
The Pittsburgh Pirates travel to take on the division rival St. Louis Cardinals Friday at Busch Stadium for an 8:15 p.m. ET first pitch. We analyze the Pirates-Cardinals MLB betting odds and lines, with betting advice and tips around the matchup.
Pirates at Cardinals: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Joe Musgrove vs. RHP Jack Flaherty
Musgrove ended up 11-12 with a 4.44 ERA and 157 strikeouts with a 1.22 WHIP across 31 starts and one relief appearance in 2019.
- Musgrove was bombed against the Cardinals last season, going 0-4 with a 10.00 ERA, 24 hits allowed and 12 walks yielded in 18 innings over four starts, while St. Louis hit a combined .324 against him.
- The righty was actually better on the road last season, going 6-6 with a 3.73 ERA across 82 innings, while posting a 5-6 mark and a 5.09 ERA in 88 1/3 innings at home.
Flaherty was good for an 11-8 record, a 2.75 ERA, a fantastic 0.98 WHIP and 231 strikeouts in 33 starts in 2019.
- Flaherty was hard on the Bucs last season, going 1-0 with a 0.60 ERA and .163 opponent batting average (OBA) across 15 innings.
- The California right-hander was dominant at Busch in ’19, going 7-4 with a sparkling 2.37 ERA and .168 OBA over 98 2/3 innings.
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Pirates at Cardinals: Key injuries
(List of injuries around the league)
Pirates
- OF Gregory Polanco tested positive for COVID-19 and his return date is uncertain at this point.
Cardinals
- RP Jordan Hicks is on the 45-day injured list and will miss the 2020 season after having a setback in his rehab from reconstructive elbow surgery.
Pirates at Cardinals: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated Wednesday at 7:55 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Cardinals 7, Pirates 2
The Pirates (+170) lost their last six road games in 2019, and things do not appear any brighter to kick off the new season. The Cardinals (-189) are heavy favorites at home, but laying this kind of chalk early is dangerous. AVOID.
New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Cardinals (-189) to win straight up nets a return of just $5.29 if they prevail.
The CARDINALS (-1.5, +110) are a much better value in their home park on the run line, especially against Musgrove, who couldn’t do anything right against the Redbirds in 2019. Overall the Bucs are 7-20 in their past 27 tries against the Cards, and a dismal 20-45 in their past 65 at Busch.
Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 8 (-110) is a risky play based on Flaherty’s numbers from a year ago, and how tough he was on the Buccos. However, Musgrove was awful against the Cardinals, and the St. Louis batters could be doing an early conga line on the base paths against the shaky righty. It won’t be a beer-league softball score, but the Cards should scratch out enough offensively to make up for the lack of runs by the Pirates batters.
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