Pitt at SMU odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Pitt at SMU odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The 17th-ranked Pitt Panthers (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten) and 20th-ranked SMU Mustangs (7-1, 4-0) meet Saturday at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (ACC Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Pitt vs. SMU odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.

Pitt has won all 7 games, including road wins against North Carolina and Cincinnati. It is also 6-1 against the spread (ATS), while scoring 28 or more points in 6 of its 7 outings. The defense has limited the opposition to 17 or fewer points in 3 of the past 4 games, with the Under cashing in 3 straight.

SMU turned the ball over 6 times last week at Duke, posting a minus-6 differential, but it still picked up a 28-27 OT win. However, it failed to cover as an 11-point favorite, halting a 4-0 ATS run. The Over has hit in 4 of the past 5 games for the Mustangs, too.

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Pitt at SMU odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated at 11 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Pitt +240 (bet $100 to win $240) | SMU -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
  • Against the spread: Pitt +7.5 (-120) | SMU -7.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 56.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Pitt at SMU picks and predictions

Prediction

SMU 29, Pitt 24

Moneyline

SMU (-300) will cost you 3 times your potential return, which is way too much risk for not enough reward, especially against a Pitt (+240) team which is unbeaten to date.

AVOID, and let’s look to the spread instead.

Against the spread

Play PITT +7.5 (-120), which is quite a lot of points for an unbeaten team to catch. The hook might be very important, too.

SMU -7.5 (+100) just turned it over 6 times last week at Duke, but found a way to win. If the Mustangs are that mistake-prone against the unbeaten Panthers, Pitt will leave the Metroplex with a convincing victory.

As it stands, the Panthers are a strong play, as they’re 6-1 ATS this season, including 2-0 ATS in both previous road contests.

On the flip side, the only loss for the Mustangs came at home Sept. 6 against BYU, 18-15, as 12.5-point favorites.

Over/Under

UNDER 56.5 (-105) is a decent play in this huge ACC clash with conference championship game implications.

The Over has hit in 4 of the past 5 games for SMU, so be careful. However, the SMU defense has allowed 18 or fewer points in 4 of the past 7 outings.

For Pitt, the Under is on a 3-0 roll, with the defense allowing just 14.0 points per game in the previous 2 contests. Don’t be surprised if this one is a lot more defensive than many expect.

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First look: Pitt at SMU odds and lines

Looking at Saturday’s Pitt at SMU college football odds, lines and trends. Here’s what you need to know.

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The 17th-ranked Pitt Panthers (7-0, 3-0 ACC) and the 20th-ranked SMU Mustangs (7-1, 4-0) meet Saturday at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (ACC Network). Below, we look at Pitt vs. SMU from BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds before making our expert college football picks and predictions later in the week.

The Panthers earned a 41-13 win over Syracuse last Thursday, easily covering as 5-point home favorites. Pitt’s defense scored 3 pick-sixes against Orange QB Kyle McCord. The Panthers are 6-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, with the Under cashing in each of the previous 3 outings.

The Mustangs survived 28-27 in OT at Duke despite committing 6 turnovers. SMU, which didn’t cover as an 11-point favorite, lost 3 fumbles and 3 interceptions, while Duke didn’t turn the ball over once. The Mustangs outgained the Blue Devils 469 yards to 393, finishing with 211 rushing yards with 258 passing yards. SMU has won 5 in a row since an 18-15 loss to current No. 12 BYU Sept. 6, while going 4-1 ATS. The Over is 4-1 in that span, too.

RankingsUS LBM Coaches Poll: Conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports

Stream select live college football games and full replays: Get ESPN+

Pitt at SMU odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Tuesday at 6:35 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Pitt +240 (bet $100 to win $240) | SMU -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
  • Against the spread: Pitt +7.5 (-110) | SMU -7 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 59.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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2024 betting stats

  • ML: Pitt 7-0 | SMU 7-1
  • ATS: Pitt 6-1 | SMU 5-3
  • O/U: Pitt 3-4 | SMU 5-3

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Pitt vs. SMU head-to-head

SMU leads all-time series 3-2-1.

This is the first time these teams will meet as conference rivals.

The last time they met was in the BBVA Compass Bowl in Birmingham with SMU prevailing 28-6 on Jan. 7, 2012, winning outright as a 3.5-point underdog.

Prior to that, the teams met in the Cotton Bowl on New Year’s Day 1983, with the Mustangs winning 7-3. SMU’s last regular-season win was Sept. 25, 1948 in Pittsburgh, and Pitt’s most recent victory was Oct. 3, 1942 in the Steel City.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

College sports coverage from USA TODAY Sports Media Group:
Alabama / Arkansas / Auburn / Clemson / Colorado / DukeFlorida / Florida StateGeorgia / Iowa / KentuckyLSU / Michigan / Michigan State / Nebraska / North Carolina / Notre Dame / Ohio State / Oklahoma / Oregon / Penn State / Rutgers / Tennessee / Texas / Texas A&M / UCLA / USC / WashingtonWisconsin / Recruiting / Transfer portal / College Football Playoffs / College Sports Wire / High School

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