The Pittsburgh Pirates (1-2) and Cincinnati Reds (2-1) meet Monday evening at 6:40 p.m. ET to open a three-game NL Central set at Great American Ball Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Pirates vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP JT Brubaker draws this start for the Pirates. In 2020, he went 1-3 with a 4.94 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, and 3.2 BB/9 in 47 1/3 IP over 11 appearances. He was dinged up by hard contact in Grapefruit League action.
RHP Jose De Leon is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He went 0-0 with an 18.00 ERA, 2.83 WHIP, 15.0 K/9, and 16.5 BB/9 in 6 IP over five relief appearances in 2020. The 28-year-old is in the Reds’ rotation due to an injury to RHP Sonny Gray (back). He has a history of wildness, and registered a bout with gopher-itis in the spring (5 home runs allowed).
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Pirates at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:35 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Pirates +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Reds -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Pirates +1.5 (-155) | Reds -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Reds 6, Pirates 4
Money line (ML)
Going by preseason win totals, you would have to be really down on De Leon not to like the Reds at this price. Preseason win totals had Cincinnati at 81.5 and Pittsburgh at 59.5. Last season, the Reds bludgeoned the Pirates, 46 runs to 27, in 10 meetings and won the season series 7-3.
In batting splits, Pittsburgh scuffled against right-handers last season (a low-contact .612 OPS). The Reds were at their best against righties with .733 OPS.
The Pirates bullpen bolsters that last nugget; when Brubaker exits, it’s a heavily right-leaning corps of relievers behind him. Bullpen availability at the top end favors Cincinnati coming into this series.
Peg this one as a strong-signal play (at least for an early-season tilt) on the REDS (-145).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Cincinnati dominated Pittsburgh in the runs department last year but this starting pitching matchup brings too much gray area into the equation.
This run-line play brings in extra juice for the house and a PASS is recommended.
Over/Under (O/U)
Walks, home runs, wind out, warmed-up Midwest, Pittsburgh ‘pen playing to Cincy strengths.
Again — gray area on the starters chips away at the strength of the play, but consider some partial-unit action on the OVER 9 (-120).
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