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The Pittsburgh Pirates (38-41) and Cincinnati Reds (37-42) conclude their 3-game series Wednesday. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is slated for 1:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Pirates lead 3-2
The Pirates bounced back after a tough 11-5 loss Monday to beat the Reds 9-5 Tuesday as +116 underdogs. LF Bryan Reynolds was the star offensively for Pittsburgh, extending the majors’ longest active hitting streak to 22 games after going 2-for-5 with a 2-run blast and 2 runs. 3B Jared Triolo also had a 2-run home run, while 2B Nick Gonzales went 3-for-4.
Reds ace Hunter Greene had his 5-game win streak snapped Tuesday, allowing 6 earned runs on 7 hits and 2 walks in 4 innings. Cincinnati received multi-hit performances from 2B Jonathan India, SS Elly De La Cruz and 1B Spencer Steer in the loss. The Reds are 0-3-1 in their last 4 series, so a win Wednesday would be a nice boost.
Pirates at Reds projected starters
RHP Luis L. Ortiz vs. RHP Graham Ashcraft
Ortiz (3-2, 3.45 ERA) makes his 1st start and 22nd appearance. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 47 innings.
- Last appearance: No-decision, 4 IP in relief, 6 ER, 10 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 10-3 loss at Tampa Bay Ray Friday
- 2024 road splits: 2-1, 2.70 ERA (23 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 7.7 K/9 in 11 relief appearances
- Career vs. Reds: 0-0, 2.89 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 5 H, 5 BB, 10 K in 1 start and 1 relief appearance
Ashcraft (4-3, 5.05 ERA) will make his 13th start, following a 3-week demotion to the minors. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 62 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 3 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 2 K in 12-7 loss at Colorado Rockies June 5
- 2024 home splits: 3-1, 7.71 ERA (21 IP, 18 ER), 1.71 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 in 4 starts
- Career vs. Pirates: 1-0, 2.89 ERA (18 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 in 3 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Pirates at Reds odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:53 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates +106 (bet $100 to win $106) | Reds -124 (bet $124 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates -1.5 (+158) | Reds +1.5 (-192)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -114 | U: -106)
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Pirates at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Pirates 7, Reds 6
Moneyline.
PASS.
However, if you must, the LEAN is with Pittsburgh (+106) mostly because of the plus odds. Both of these teams are playing very mediocre baseball. Neither team really stands out one way or the other. The Pirates are 5-5 in their last 10 games, while the Reds are 3-7.
Pittsburgh is starting a reliever in Ortiz on a getaway day and Cincinnati is putting Ashcraft back in the rotation after he was demoted a few weeks ago. I’m personally STAYING AWAY.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I don’t like the either team’s run line for the same reasons listed above. This one is tough to handicap for so many factors. The Pirates are 2 games under .500 on the road at 19-21; the Reds are 2 games under .500 at home at 20-22. There are just no trends to lean into with this game. AVOID.
Over/Under
BET OVER 9.5 (-114).
I love the total in this game for several reasons. Both starting pitchers struggled big time in their last outings. The first 2 games of this series have easily cashed Over tickets. Plus, the Over is 4-1 in Ashcraft’s last 5 starts.
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