Tag: Phoenix Suns vs. New Orleans Pelicans predictions pick betting line spread

Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans Game 6 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans Game 6 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 8 seed New Orleans Pelicans (2-3) try to stave off elimination Thursday when they host the No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (3-2) for Game 6 of the Western Conference first-round series. Tip-off at the Smoothie King Center is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Pelicans vs. Suns odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Phoenix took control of this series with a 112-97 Game 5 win Tuesday thanks to incredible performances from SF Mikal Bridges and All-Star PG Chris Paul. Bridges scored a game-high 31 points on 70.6% shooting (4-for-4 from 3) and CP3 had 22 points and a game-high 11 assists with just 1 turnover.

Suns at Pelicans odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:32 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Suns -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Pelicans +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Against the spread: Suns -2.5 (-108) | Pelicans +2.5 (-112)
  • Over/Under: 213.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Suns at Pelicans key injuries

Suns

  • SG Devin Booker (hamstring) out

Pelicans

  • None

[tipico]

Suns at Pelicans picks and predictions

Prediction

Pelicans 106, Suns 101

Money line

LEAN PELICANS (+115) because I’m on them to win, but prefer the spread since I’ll take whatever points I can get with NOLA.

The Pelicans are significantly better in two of the four factors in this series (rebounding and free-throw attempt rates) and NOLA’s role players should step up with Game 6 at home.

Furthermore, Tipico Sportsbook’s betting splits indicate the professionals are backing the Pelicans while the public is taking the Suns. Roughly 90% of the bets placed are on Phoenix but whereas nearly 60% of the cash is on NOLA.

Since professionals wager put up more dough than your average Joe, the cash column of the betting splits is generally considered the sharp side of the market.

Again, it’s only a LEAN to the PELICANS (+115) because NOLA’s spread is a sharper play.

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Against the spread

Definitely BET the PELICANS +2.5 (-112) instead of or heavier than their ML based on the previous analysis and there’s reverse line movement headed towards NOLA in the betting market.

According to Pregame.com, more than 80% of the money is on the Suns -2.5 (-108) but the Pelicans are the pricier side and NOLA is even down to +2 at some sportsbooks.

I give the Pelicans the edge in this matchup the longer this series goes. NOLA is healthier and much more aggressive at crashing the glass and attacking the paint.

Phoenix relies too much on mid-range jumpers and CP3 brilliance. If the Suns’ shooters go cold or if Paul is less than amazing then the Pelicans should cruise past the Suns as they did in Game 4.

For the record, the PELICANS +2.5 (-112) is my favorite bet in this game.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 213.5 (-110) because the defense will be ratcheted up in this elimination game and this is the third-slowest-paced series in the first round.

That said, it’s only a “lean” because 3 of the first 5 games of this series went Over the total and Suns-Pelicans has the second-worst combined defensive rating of any first-round series.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns Game 5 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns Game 5 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 8 seed New Orleans Pelicans (2-2) heads back to Footprint Center Tuesday to play the No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (2-2) at 10 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Pelicans vs. Suns odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

NOLA evened the series Sunday by beating Phoenix 118-103 in Game 4. The Pelicans outscored the Suns in three of the four quarters, outperformed them in three of the “four factors” and NOLA wing Brandon Ingram scored a game-high 30 points.

Pelicans big Jonas Valančiūnas got revenge for Suns big Deandre Ayton wearing him out in Game 3. Valančiūnas outscored Ayton 26-23, outrebounded him 15-8 and attempted 9 more free throws.

However, the major takeaway from Game 4 was NOLA’s defense on Suns PG Chris Paul who had a minus-43 net rating and had almost as many turnovers (3) as points (4).

Pelicans at Suns odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:55 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Pelicans +225 (bet $100 to win $225) | Suns -290 (bet $290 to win $100)
  • Against the spread: Pelicans +6.5 (-108) | Suns -6.5 (-112)
  • Over/Under: 214.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Pelicans at Suns key injuries

Pelicans

  • PF Zion Williamson (foot) out

Suns

  • SG Devin Booker (hamstring) out

[tipico]

Pelicans at Suns picks and predictions

Prediction

Pelicans 107, Suns 102

Money line

SPRINKLE on the PELICANS (+225) to win this game and I’m hitting both NOLA’s spread and adjusted series price of +240 harder.

The Pelicans have a personnel edge with Booker sidelined and an overwhelming edge in rebounding and free-throw attempt rates.

NOLA’s offensive rebounding rate is 16.5% higher than Phoenix’s in this series and the Pelicans have attempted 39 more free throws than the Suns because they are aggressively attacking the basket.

Without CP3 brilliance (which frankly is inconsistent come the postseason) the Suns are not a good bet to win this series if they are going to get beaten this badly in two of the “four factors”.

Ingram has become the best player in this series once Booker went down. BI is scoring a series-high 29.8 points on 62.9% true shooting (.513/.500/.879) with 6.8 rebounds, 5.3 assists and a plus-9 net rating.

However, NOLA plus the points is a much sharper wager so I’d only SPRINKLE on the PELICANS (+225), if at all.

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Against the spread

Definitely BET the PELICANS +6.5 (-108) heavier than or instead of their ML based on the prior analysis and NOLA is outscoring Phoenix by 3.3 points per 100 possessions in this series.

More importantly, the Suns are a lot less scary without Booker who is their only dude that can consistently create his own looks in half-court sets. The Pelican have Ingram and SG C.J. McCollum who is quietly averaging 24.0 points per game in this series.

The PELICANS PLUS THE POINTS is my favorite bet in this game.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 214.5 (-107) because this is a Pros vs. Joe’s scenario in the betting market for the total and Pelicans-Suns is the third-slowest-paced series in the playoffs.

More cash is on the Under whereas more bets have been placed on the Over according to pregame.com and the oddsmakers are reacting to the money in the market by lowering the total down from the 217-point opener.

In sports betting it’s typically profitable to follow the money when it’s counter to the public because professional bettors put up more dough than your average Joe.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional NBA sports coverage:
HoopsHype | Celtics Wire | LeBron Wire | Lonzo Wire | Nets Wire | Rockets Wire | Sixers Wire | Thunder Wire | Warriors Wire | Rookie Wire | List Wire

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans Game 4 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans Game 4 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (2-1) play the No. 8 seed New Orleans Pelicans (1-2) Sunday in the Smoothie King Center at 9:30 p.m. ET for Game 4 of their Western Conference first-round playoff series. Below, we look at the Suns vs. Pelicans odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Friday’s Game 3 saw a vintage Chris Paul performance where the future Hall of Famer put up 28 points on 55.6% shooting with 14 assists in Phoenix’s 114-111.

Suns big Deandre Ayton outscored Pelicans big Jonas Valančiūnas 28-6, outshooting him 65.0% to -20.0% and outrebounding him 17-7.

NOLA’s two leading scorers in this series — SG C.J. McCollum and SF Brandon Ingram — held up their ends of the bargain in Game 3 by combining for 64 points on 52.4% shooting (7-for-17 from behind the arc).

Suns at Pelicans odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:47 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Suns -135 (bet $140 to win $100) | Pelicans +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Against the spread: Suns -2.5 (-110) | Pelicans +2.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 214.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Suns at Pelicans key injuries

Suns

  • SG Devin Booker (hamstring) out

Pelicans

  • None

[tipico]

Suns at Pelicans picks and predictions

Prediction

Pelicans 107, Suns 103

Money line

LEAN PELICANS (+115) because I’d prefer to take any points I can get with NOLA, because if the Pelicans can do a little better versus the Suns’ pick-and-roll this series will be even heading back to Phoenix for Game 5.

NOLA is nearly doubling Phoenix’s rebounding rate for this series and the Suns won a seesaw Game 3 despite shooting just 15.4% from 3-point land. It’s hard winning in today’s NBA shooting that poorly from behind the arc.

If CP3 or Ayton’s production tails off a smidge, Game 4 will be very winnable for the Pelicans especially since role players shoot better at home and a loss Sunday would put NOLA’s season on the brink.

However, CP3 has a knack for rising to the occasion in clutch moments so the Suns could certainly eke this game out hence the LEAN PELICANS (+115).

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Against the spread

BET the PELICANS +2.5 (-110) since they are the home team and need Game 4 like blood. Also, we are seeing reverse line movement (RLM) headed towards NOLA in the betting market.

According to VegasInsider.com and Pregame.com, a vast majority of the money and action is on the Suns -2.5 (-110), but they opened as 3-point favorites. RLM is a red flag because you have to ask yourself why are the sportsbooks making the more popular team cheaper? Hmmm.

Furthermore, I’ll take any basketball team getting points if they are going to own the glass like the Pelicans have in this series. Basketball is about accumulating possessions to get more shots up and NOLA is almost guaranteed to win the battle of possessions with its edge on the glass.

The PELICANS PLUS THE POINTS is my favorite wager in this game.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 214.5 (-108) only because we are getting to the party late on the total but the presumed sharp side of the market is projected a higher-scoring Suns-Pelicans Game 4.

Most of the bets placed are on the Over 214.5 (-112), but roughly 90% of the money is on the Under (per Pregame and Vegas Insider). It can be profitable to follow the money when it’s counter to the public since the wiseguys put up a lot more dough than your average Joe.

But I only LEAN to the UNDER 214.5 (-108) because oddsmakers have reacted by lowering this total from the 217-point opener down to the current price so we’d be getting the worst of the number.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional NBA sports coverage:
HoopsHype | Celtics Wire | LeBron Wire | Lonzo Wire | Nets Wire | Rockets Wire | Sixers Wire | Thunder Wire | Warriors Wire | Rookie Wire | List Wire

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans Game 3 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans Game 3 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (1-1) visit the Smoothie King Center Friday for Game 3 of their Western Conference first-round playoff series with the No. 8 seed New Orleans Pelicans (1-1). Tip-off is set for 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Suns vs. Pelicans odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

New Orleans evened the series by upsetting Phoenix 125-114 in Game 2 Tuesday. Pelicans SF Brandon Ingram lit the Suns up for 37 points on 61.9% shooting, including 3-for-3 from behind the arc. He was also 8-for-8 from the foul line with 11 rebounds and 9 assists.

The major storyline from Game 2 was the injury to Suns All-Star SG Devin Booker, who exited in the third quarter with a hamstring issue after a 31-point first-half. Booker is expected to be sidelined for the rest of this series.

Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA April 22 playoff breakdown

Suns at Pelicans odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:37 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Suns -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Pelicans +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Against the spread: Suns -2.5 (-110) | Pelicans +2.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 216.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Suns at Pelicans key injuries

Suns

  • SG Devin Booker (hamstring) out

Pelicans

  • PF Zion Williamson (foot) out

[tipico]

Suns at Pelicans picks and predictions

Prediction

Pelicans 112, Suns 107

Money line

LEAN PELICANS (+115) because New Orleans plus the points is a “sharper” play.

I also prefer to take the PELICANS TO WIN THE SERIES (+220) because the Suns (-319) are in real trouble without Booker.

Phoenix is a heck of a lot easier to defend without its best offensive player on the floor and NOLA’s length and defensive versatility will make it tough on the Suns and PG Chris Paul to execute their half-court offense. Also, CP3 is just 21-41 overall in his career on the road in the postseason.

More importantly, the Pelicans are outrebounding the Suns by 15 rebounds per game through the first 2 games and you cannot win a playoff series getting crushed on the glass this badly. In fact, New Orleans’ rebounding rate is more than double Phoenix’s in this series.

The Pelicans were 4th in offensive-rebounding rate during the regular season and 3rd in second-chance points per game (PPG) while the Suns were 21st in second-chance PPG allowed.

The Pelicans had the best fast-break defensive efficiency during the regular season, so I don’t see Phoenix having success in transition.

Finally, we are seeing the emergence of an elite wing scorer in Ingram and, now that Booker is out with an injury, Ingram is now the best player in this series.

It’s only a LEAN to the PELICANS (+115) because I’m fearful of a vintage CP3 performance in Phoenix’s first game without Booker and I prefer New Orleans’ spread.

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Against the spread

BET PELICANS +2.5 (-110).

I could see CP3 putting the Suns on his back for a clutch victory and New Orleans plus the points might come in handy.

This is my favorite wager in this game. Most of the wagered money is on the Suns, so I’d wait until closer to tip-off in hopes of getting a better price for New Orleans’ spread.

Over/Under

PASS since the total has been lowered from the 222-point look-ahead total, so we’d be getting the worst of the number with the Under.

I don’t like the Over since the Suns may slow down their tempo with Booker out and the Pelicans played at the 21st-fastest pace during the regular season.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional NBA sports coverage:
HoopsHype | Celtics Wire | LeBron Wire | Lonzo Wire | Nets Wire | Rockets Wire | Sixers Wire | Thunder Wire | Warriors Wire | Rookie Wire | List Wire

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The New Orleans Pelicans (28-40) host the Phoenix Suns (54-14) Tuesday at the Smoothie King Center for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Suns vs. Pelicans odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Phoenix has won 3 of its last 4 games, which includes a 140-111 beatdown of the Los Angeles Lakers at home Sunday. The Suns are 5-2 straight up (SU) but just 3-4 against the spread (ATS) since March 2.

New Orleans snapped a 4-game losing skid (0-4 ATS) Sunday by crushing the Houston Rockets 130-105 at home. The Pelicans have regressed due to the injury of SF Brandon Ingram and SG C.J. McCollum being in health and safety protocols.

The Pelicans blasted the Suns 117-102 in Phoenix Feb. 25 as 6-point underdogs. However, Ingram and McCollum combined for 60 points on 20-for–35 shooting, but Ingram will miss Tuesday’s game.

Suns at Pelicans odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:50 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Suns -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Pelicans +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
  • Against the spread: Suns -4.5 (-110) | Pelicans +4.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 230.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Suns at Pelicans key injuries

Suns

  • SF Cameron Johnson (quad) out
  • PG Chris Paul (hand) out

Pelicans

  • SF Brandon Ingram (hamstring) out
  • SG C.J. McCollum (health and safety protocols) available

[tipico]

Suns at Pelicans odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Suns 118, Pelicans 104

Money line

LEAN to the SUNS (-190).

Their implied win probability is 65.5% and Phoenix wins this game more than two-thirds of the time. The Suns are 20-3 SU as road favorites and the Pelicans are 8-16 SU as home underdogs.

More importantly, the Pelicans score 12.1 fewer points per 100 possessions with Ingram out, which grades in the 96th percentile of wings, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Ingram (22.8 points per game) is New Orleans’ second-leading scorer behind McCollum (27.1 PPG), who has only played 12 games for the Pelicans. McCollum actually has a minus-2.3 adjusted on/off net rating, per CTG.

I only LEAN SUNS (-190) because I’m confident enough in Phoenix to lay the points at a cheaper price.

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Against the spread

BET SUNS -4.5 (-110) for 1 unit because Phoenix is 14-9 ATS as road favorites with a plus-4.8 ATS margin.

Also, the Suns should get retribution from the beatdown the Pelicans gave them in Phoenix in their second game after the All-Star break. NOLA outscored Phoenix in three of the four quarters and outperformed in three of the “four factors.”

But Phoenix head coach Monty Williams should have his guys better prepared to stop a New Orleans offense without its most versatile scorer.

The SUNS LAYING 4.5 POINTS (-110) is my favorite wager in this game.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 230.5 (-108) because everyone is betting the Over so the total has been increased 5 points from the opener and I think Phoenix’s defense locks up NOLA’s offense.

The Suns are 10-14 O/U as road favorites with a minus-4.0 total margin, which tells me Phoenix’s defense takes care of business on the road.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional NBA sports coverage:
HoopsHype | Celtics Wire | LeBron Wire | Lonzo Wire | Nets Wire | Rockets Wire | Sixers Wire | Thunder Wire | Warriors Wire | Rookie Wire | List Wire

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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