The Denver Nuggets (7-7) visit the Phoenix Suns (8-5) at their self-titled arena for a 10 p.m. ET tip-off Friday. Below, we analyze the Nuggets-Suns NBA odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Denver has been pretty inconsistent over the past two weeks. The Nuggets have alternated wins and losses in their last five games (3-2 ATS), which includes a 119-101 win as 10-point home favorites Tuesday.
If you’re paying attention to the NBA this season, hopefully, you’ve noticed the legitimacy of All-Star Nuggets C Nikola Jokic’s MVP candidacy through the first month. Jokic is averaging a triple-double with 25.1 points, 11.4 rebounds and 10 assists per game (all Denver team highs).
The Suns acquiring future Hall of Fame PG Chris Paul this offseason has taken Phoenix from a probable postseason play-in tournament contender to a team with a chance at hosting a playoff series in the first round.
Paul is fifth in the NBA in assists per game (8.2) and Paul’s floor general capabilities have helped C Deandre Ayton shoot the 13th-highest field-goal percentage (57.8%) in the league, SF Mikal Bridges get the eighth-best offensive rating (132.4) and SG Devin Booker lead the Suns in scoring (22.2 PPG).
Like Denver, the Suns have been inconsistent recently, going 2-3 straight-up (2-3 ATS) in their previous five games. Phoenix’s 106-103 win in Denver New Year’s Day snapped a five-game losing streak (3-2 ATS) to the Nuggets.
Nuggets at Suns: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:58 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Nuggets +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Suns -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Nuggets +1.5 (-110) | Suns -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 219.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Nuggets at Suns: Key Injuries
Nuggets
- SF Michael Porter Jr. (health and safety protocols) questionable
Suns
- None that alters gambling lines.
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Nuggets at Suns: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Nuggets 114, Suns 108
Money line (ML)
GIMME NUGGETS (+105) for 1 unit. Even though the Suns have a better record, the Nuggets rank higher in net rating this season and Phoenix’s defense is a little overrated.
While the Suns rank fifth in opponent’s points per game, that’s more of a result of their 28th-ranked pace of play and slowing the tempo down helps Phoenix set up its half-court defense. The Suns are 18th in opponent’s field-goal shooting, 12th in defensive rating and 24th in opponent’s free throw per field-goal attempt rate.
Also, Phoenix is a net negative in rebounds per game whereas Denver is a net positive. Finally, most of the Nuggets stunk it up in their first game against Phoenix and I anticipate a bounce-back performance from several of Denver’s role players.
Against the spread (ATS)
PASS ON THE SPREAD. Denver isn’t getting enough points to validate buying insurance for the Nuggets money line.
Over/Under (O/U)
Against my better judgment, I’ll follow the money and I lean OVER 219.5 (-110) for a quarter-unit. According to Pregame.com, nearly 80% of the money is on the Over, steaming it up from the 218.5-point opener.
Like I said above, my read is that Phoenix’s defense is a tad overrated and we’ll get a better showing out of Denver than the first Nuggets-Suns game.
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Also see:
- Viewership for NBA national TV games up to begin 2020-21 season (Rookie Wire)
- Hoops Hype Rumors: Nuggets | Suns
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