Phoenix Suns betting odds line spread pick predictions best bets – Page 12

Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns Game 5 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns Game 5 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (2-2) host the No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks (2-2) Tuesday for Game 5 of their Western Conference semifinals playoff series. Tip-off at Footprint Center is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Suns Game 5 odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Dallas evened the series with a 111-101 Game 4 victory Sunday despite Phoenix shooting better from the field, grabbing more rebounds and throwing more assists. Three-point shooting was the difference in Game 4 as the Mavs outshot the Suns 45.5-36.0% from behind the arc and sunk 11 more threes.

Phoenix All-Star PG Chris Paul struggled while the series was in Dallas, averaging just 8.5 points with 5.5 assists and 4.5 turnovers and he fouled out of Game 4. Mavs All-Star PG Luka Doncic has been the best player in this series, scoring 33.0 points with 9.3 rebounds and 8.8 assists.

Mavericks at Suns odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:07 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Mavericks +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Suns -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
Against the spread: Mavericks +6.5 (-112) | Suns -6.5 (-108)
Over/Under: 213.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Mavericks at Suns key injuries

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Mavericks at Suns picks and predictions

Prediction

Suns 110, Mavericks 106

Money line

PASS with a lean to the Mavericks (+220) because I like Dallas’s spread and typically will sprinkle on an underdog’s ML when betting them to cover.

However, the Suns averaged 125.0 points in the first 2 games of this series while in Phoenix and they are outperforming the Mavs in three of the “four factors” for the series.

Phoenix’s adjusted series price is -250 even though this series is tied 2-2 and the Suns’ most likely path to a series victory is to win both of their remaining home games (Game 5 and 7).

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Against the spread

BET the MAVERICKS +6.5 (-112) because they have the best player in this series and Dallas is shooting 40.5% on 3-pointers and is making 16.5 threes per game through the first 4 games. I don’t trust the Suns to win by margin with the Mavs shooting this well from behind the arc.

The Mavs also have committed 18 fewer turnovers in the series and have a better assist-to-turnover ratio than the Suns. By winning the turnover battle, Luka and Dallas can control the tempo, which is the best way to beat a CP3-led team.

More than 80% of the cash is on Phoenix, according to Tipico Sportsbook, and it’s generally profitable to fade such lopsided betting markets in major sporting events.

BET the MAVERICKS +6.5 (-112).

Over/Under

PASS because both teams like to play half-court basketball but each team is shooting better than 40.0% from 3-point land and the combined offensive efficiency in this series is through the roof.

Plus this Mavericks-Suns series is playing nearly 3 possessions per 48 minutes slower (92.9) than the playoff average (95.8).

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Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks Game 4 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks Game 4 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks (1-2) host the No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (2-1) for Game 4 of their Western Conference semifinals playoff series. Sunday’s tip-off at the American Airlines Center is set for 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Suns vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Dallas got back into this series with a 103-94 win Friday in Game 3, despite being outperformed in 3 of the “4 factors”. Phoenix continuously shot itself in the foot and Dallas attempted 14 more field goals in the game.

The Suns had a 17.1% offensive turnover rate (TOV%) and allowed 22 second-chance points in Game 3, well off their regular-season marks of 12.9% offensive TOV% (4th) and 14.8 second-chance points per game allowed (4th).

Dallas combo guard Jalen Brunson had a bounce-back effort at home, scoring 28 points on 47.6% shooting (7 of 7 from the foul line) with 4 rebounds, 5 assists and no turnovers.

The Mavs’ Game 3 victory was their first vs. Phoenix since the Suns acquired future Hall-of-Fame PG Chris Paul prior to last season. Dallas is 1-8 straight up (SU) and 3-5 against the spread (ATS) vs. Phoenix in the last 2 seasons.

Mavericks at Suns odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:28 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Suns -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Mavericks +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
Against the spread: Suns -2.5 (-110) | Mavericks +2.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 214.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Mavericks at Suns key injuries

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Mavericks

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[tipico]

Mavericks at Suns picks and predictions

Prediction

Suns 109, Mavericks 103

Money line

BET the SUNS (-140) because they won’t repeat the mistakes that cost them Game 3. Phoenix outshot Dallas from everywhere on the floor and had a plus-9 rebound differential, but just kept giving the ball back to the Mavs.

Also, the Suns perform much better than the Mavs in close games. Phoenix is 6-2 SU in games decided by 3 points or less and 5-1 ATS as 1-to-2.5-point favorites. Dallas is 7-5 SU in games within a 3-point margin and 7-5 ATS as 1-to-2.5-point underdogs.

Phoenix had the best regular-season clutch record (33-9 SU) and net rating (plus-33.9) whereas Dallas was 25th in clutch net rating this season (minus-9.1). “Clutch” is defined by games within a 5-point margin inside of 5 minutes to play.

Suns coach Monty Williams should make the necessary adjustments and Phoenix’s All-Star backcourt of CP3 and Devin Booker will perform better Sunday after no-shows Friday.

BET the SUNS (-140).

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Against the spread

Slight LEAN to the SUNS -2.5 (-110) because they should win Game 4 by margin, but I’m confident enough to spend a little extra for Phoenix’s ML.

Also, we’d be getting the worst of the number since the Suns opened as 1.5-point favorites but market steam has made Phoenix more expensive.

Over/Under

LEAN to the UNDER 214.5 (-110) since there’s a line freeze in the betting market for the total, Dallas is 3-9 O/U as home underdogs with a minus-7.1 total margin and played at the slowest pace during the regular season.

According to VegasInsider.com, nearly three-fourths of the cash wagered is on the Over, but the total hasn’t budged off the opener and has even been lowered at some sportsbooks.

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Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks Game 3 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks Game 3 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (2-0) head to the American Airlines Center for Game 3 of their Western Conference semifinals series against the No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks (0-2). Tip-off is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Suns vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Phoenix rallied from a first-half deficit to crush Dallas 129-109 in Game 2 even though the Mavs won 3 of the “4 factors” because the Suns shot an insane 73.0% effective field goal rate (eFG%), which breaks down to 64.5% from the field and 52.0% from 3-point land.

Suns All-Star guards Chris Paul and Devin Booker are scorching the Mavs. They are scoring a combined 50 points per game (PPG) on 62.1% shooting (45.0% from behind the arc) with 24 rebounds and 23 assists in the series.

Dallas All-Star Luka Doncic has pulled his weight in this series, averaging 40.0 PPG on 66.3% true shooting (.538/.429/.789) with 8.5 rebounds and 7.5 assists. But Mavs’ first-round breakout star, PG Jalen Brunson, is adding just 11.0 PPG on 32.1% shooting (25.0% from 3) with a minus-50 net rating.

The Suns are 8-0 overall and 6-2 against the spread (ATS) vs. the Mavs since acquiring CP3 and the total is 4-4 Over/Under (O/U) in those meetings.

Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA conference semifinals Game 3 betting previews

Mavericks at Suns odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:58 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Suns -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Mavericks -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
Against the spread: Suns -1.5 (-102) | Mavericks +1.5 (-122)
Over/Under: 219.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Mavericks at Suns key injuries

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Mavericks

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[tipico]

Mavericks at Suns picks and predictions

Prediction

Suns 116, Mavericks 110

Money line

BET the SUNS (-115) because their backcourt is lighting up the Mavericks’ (-105) backcourt and because they are hurting Luka on defense in the second halves of these games.

Phoenix being able to exploit Luka puts Dallas in a tough spot because it needs Doncic on the floor for his offensive brilliance but has nowhere to hide him on defense.

On top of that, the Suns’ frontcourt is far superior to the Mavs’, which is the main reason Phoenix has nearly a 10% higher rebounding rate than Dallas in this series.

We saw the New Orleans Pelicans make up for an outmatched offense vs. Phoenix in the first round by crashing the offensive glass. But the Mavs were just 24th in offensive rebounding rate during the regular season.

Obviously, Dallas’s 3-point shooters can get hot Friday, or Luka and the Mavs can get some home-cooking from the referees in Game 3.

But the Suns (-115) have an implied win probability of 53.5% and Phoenix has beaten Dallas in 100% of their meetings since the Suns picked up CP3.

BET 1 UNIT on the SUNS (-115).

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Against the spread

PASS because Phoenix’s ML is only 13 cents on the dollar more expensive than the Suns -1.5 (-102) so there’s no reason to sweat a Phoenix cover here. I’d absolutely take the points instead of the ML if the Suns became an underdog but I’ll stick with Phoenix winning outright.

Over/Under

LEAN to the OVER 219.5 (-107) because Dallas has no answer for a Phoenix offense that is scoring 125.0 PPG in this series and because the Suns have 5 players who are shooting at least 40.0% from behind the arc.

Also, the Mavs role players should perform a little better now that the series is in Dallas and if the Mavs get down early in Game 3, they might speed up the pace in desperation mode.

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns Game 2 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns Game 2 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (1-0) host the No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks (0-1) Wednesday for Game 2 in the Western Conference semifinals at Footprint Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Suns odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Phoenix held off a late Dallas surge to win 121-114 in Game 1 and cover as 6-point home favorites. The Suns bodied the Mavs on the glass, grabbing 15 more rebounds (51-36), and had 11 more assists (27-16).

Mavs All-Star Luka Doncic dropped 45 points on 50.0% shooting (15 of 30) with 12 rebounds and 8 assists. Suns All-Star SG Devin Booker nearly notched a triple-double with a 23-9-8 stats line while Suns big Deandre Ayton had a team-high 25 points on 60.0% shooting (12 of 20).

The Suns have beaten the Mavs in 7 straight meetings dating back to the beginning of last season, including the playoffs, and are 5-2 against the spread (ATS) in those games.

Mavericks at Suns odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:41 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Mavericks +205 (bet $100 to win $205) | Suns -260 (bet $260 to win $100)
Against the spread: Mavericks +6.5 (-120) | Suns -6.5 (-105)
Over/Under: 215.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Mavericks at Suns key injuries

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Mavericks at Suns picks and predictions

Prediction

Suns 110, Mavericks 101

Money line

PASS although I like the Suns (-260) to take a 2-0 series lead over the Mavericks (+205) before heading to Dallas.

On paper, Game 1 looked a lot closer than it was but almost all of the fourth quarter was garbage time and the Suns completely took their foot off the gas.

More importantly, Phoenix’s pick-and-roll (PnR) action is a nightmare matchup for Dallas. The Suns have the highest PnR efficiency through ball handlers in these playoffs while the Mavs have the fourth-worst PnR defensive efficiency against ball handlers.

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Against the spread

BET the SUNS -6.5 (-105) because they created so many easy looks in Game 1 and their defense is way too good for Dallas’s predictable offense.

The Suns would’ve beaten the Mavericks +6.5 (-120) by at least 15 points if it weren’t for Dallas PF Maxi Kleber coming off the bench to sink 5 of 8 on 3-point attempts.

Phoenix’s defensive strategy in Game 1 was to allow Luka to play iso-ball while limiting Dallas role players. Luka had a 42.8% usage rate but a minus-6 net rating and Mavs PG Jalen Brunson struggled versus Phoenix’s elite perimeter defense.

Also, Dallas’s defense has no answer for Suns big Deandre Ayton on defense and cannot play Ayton off the floor as the Mavs did with Utah Jazz C Rudy Gobert in the first round. Phoenix’s perimeter defense isn’t Swiss cheese so Dallas won’t get the same quality of shots it did versus the Jazz last round.

TAKE THE SUNS -6.5 (-105).

Over/Under

BET UNDER 215.5 (-110) because both teams have a below-average pace and free-throw attempt rate in these playoffs and neither turn the ball over much so there shouldn’t be easy points off of turnovers.

On top of that, there’s reverse line movement headed South of the total since the Mavericks-Suns opened with a 216.5-point total and has been lowered even though nearly 90% of the money is on the Over, per Tipico Sportsbook.

Lastly, if the Suns run away with Game 2 as they did with the series opener, which I think they will, then Phoenix will kill the tempo in the fourth quarter and there will be fewer possessions.

For the record, the UNDER 215.5 (-110) is my favorite wager in Game 2 because it feels like the least popular bet in this game and, typically, the road less traveled is where you find profit betting sports.

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns Game 1 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns Game 1 odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 1-seed Phoenix Suns open their 2nd-round Western Conference playoff series Monday at home against the No. 4-seed Dallas Mavericks. Tip-off from Footprint Center is set for 10 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Suns Game 1 odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

The Mavericks eliminated the Utah Jazz in the first round of the playoffs in 6 games. G Luka Doncic missed the first 3 games of that series but averaged 29.0 points in games 4-6. G Jalen Brunson averaged 27.8 points per game in the series.

The Suns also came out of the first round of the playoffs in six games, eliminating the New Orleans Pelicans. They overcame a hamstring injury to G Devin Booker, who missed three games before returning to play in the series clincher. G Chris Paul shot a perfect 14-of-14 from the field and 4-for-4 from the free-throw line for 33 points in the final game.

Mavericks at Suns odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:53 a.m. ET.

Money line: Mavericks +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Suns -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Mavericks +5.5 (-107) | Suns -5.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 214.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Mavericks at Suns key injuries

Mavericks

G Tim Hardaway Jr. (foot) out

Suns

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Mavericks at Suns picks and predictions

Prediction

Suns 110, Mavericks 103

Money line

PASS on the money line.

The Suns are healthy and had the league’s best home record during the regular season. They did lose 1 game at home in the first round against the Pelicans, but the Pelicans were able to battle with size and rebounding.

The Suns have won their last 9 matchups against the Mavericks.

The Mavericks were only 23-18 on the road this season.

I like the Suns (-240) to win but the odds aren’t suitable for a single wager. PASS.

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Against the spread

The Mavericks are 51-36-1 ATS including the playoffs and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games.

The Suns are 48-40 ATS and 21-23 ATS at home. They are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games.

Each team went 2-2 ATS against each other this season, but Dallas covered the spread in the 2 games in Phoenix.

The Suns are 7-3 ATS against the Mavericks in their last 10 matchups.

Take SUNS -5.5 (-115).

Over/Under

Two of the games between the Mavericks and Suns this season had totals of more than 214 points, but the Under hit in 3 of the 4 meetings.

Only 1 of the Mavericks’ 6 games in the last series had a total higher than 214 points.

Four of the Suns’ 6 games in the first round had more than 214 points.

I LEAN UNDER 214.5 (-107).

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Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans Game 6 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans Game 6 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 8 seed New Orleans Pelicans (2-3) try to stave off elimination Thursday when they host the No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (3-2) for Game 6 of the Western Conference first-round series. Tip-off at the Smoothie King Center is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Pelicans vs. Suns odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Phoenix took control of this series with a 112-97 Game 5 win Tuesday thanks to incredible performances from SF Mikal Bridges and All-Star PG Chris Paul. Bridges scored a game-high 31 points on 70.6% shooting (4-for-4 from 3) and CP3 had 22 points and a game-high 11 assists with just 1 turnover.

Suns at Pelicans odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:32 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Suns -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Pelicans +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
Against the spread: Suns -2.5 (-108) | Pelicans +2.5 (-112)
Over/Under: 213.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Suns at Pelicans key injuries

Suns

SG Devin Booker (hamstring) out

Pelicans

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Suns at Pelicans picks and predictions

Prediction

Pelicans 106, Suns 101

Money line

LEAN PELICANS (+115) because I’m on them to win, but prefer the spread since I’ll take whatever points I can get with NOLA.

The Pelicans are significantly better in two of the four factors in this series (rebounding and free-throw attempt rates) and NOLA’s role players should step up with Game 6 at home.

Furthermore, Tipico Sportsbook’s betting splits indicate the professionals are backing the Pelicans while the public is taking the Suns. Roughly 90% of the bets placed are on Phoenix but whereas nearly 60% of the cash is on NOLA.

Since professionals wager put up more dough than your average Joe, the cash column of the betting splits is generally considered the sharp side of the market.

Again, it’s only a LEAN to the PELICANS (+115) because NOLA’s spread is a sharper play.

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Against the spread

Definitely BET the PELICANS +2.5 (-112) instead of or heavier than their ML based on the previous analysis and there’s reverse line movement headed towards NOLA in the betting market.

According to Pregame.com, more than 80% of the money is on the Suns -2.5 (-108) but the Pelicans are the pricier side and NOLA is even down to +2 at some sportsbooks.

I give the Pelicans the edge in this matchup the longer this series goes. NOLA is healthier and much more aggressive at crashing the glass and attacking the paint.

Phoenix relies too much on mid-range jumpers and CP3 brilliance. If the Suns’ shooters go cold or if Paul is less than amazing then the Pelicans should cruise past the Suns as they did in Game 4.

For the record, the PELICANS +2.5 (-112) is my favorite bet in this game.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 213.5 (-110) because the defense will be ratcheted up in this elimination game and this is the third-slowest-paced series in the first round.

That said, it’s only a “lean” because 3 of the first 5 games of this series went Over the total and Suns-Pelicans has the second-worst combined defensive rating of any first-round series.

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns Game 5 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns Game 5 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 8 seed New Orleans Pelicans (2-2) heads back to Footprint Center Tuesday to play the No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (2-2) at 10 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Pelicans vs. Suns odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

NOLA evened the series Sunday by beating Phoenix 118-103 in Game 4. The Pelicans outscored the Suns in three of the four quarters, outperformed them in three of the “four factors” and NOLA wing Brandon Ingram scored a game-high 30 points.

Pelicans big Jonas Valančiūnas got revenge for Suns big Deandre Ayton wearing him out in Game 3. Valančiūnas outscored Ayton 26-23, outrebounded him 15-8 and attempted 9 more free throws.

However, the major takeaway from Game 4 was NOLA’s defense on Suns PG Chris Paul who had a minus-43 net rating and had almost as many turnovers (3) as points (4).

Pelicans at Suns odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:55 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Pelicans +225 (bet $100 to win $225) | Suns -290 (bet $290 to win $100)
Against the spread: Pelicans +6.5 (-108) | Suns -6.5 (-112)
Over/Under: 214.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Pelicans at Suns key injuries

Pelicans

PF Zion Williamson (foot) out

Suns

SG Devin Booker (hamstring) out

[tipico]

Pelicans at Suns picks and predictions

Prediction

Pelicans 107, Suns 102

Money line

SPRINKLE on the PELICANS (+225) to win this game and I’m hitting both NOLA’s spread and adjusted series price of +240 harder.

The Pelicans have a personnel edge with Booker sidelined and an overwhelming edge in rebounding and free-throw attempt rates.

NOLA’s offensive rebounding rate is 16.5% higher than Phoenix’s in this series and the Pelicans have attempted 39 more free throws than the Suns because they are aggressively attacking the basket.

Without CP3 brilliance (which frankly is inconsistent come the postseason) the Suns are not a good bet to win this series if they are going to get beaten this badly in two of the “four factors”.

Ingram has become the best player in this series once Booker went down. BI is scoring a series-high 29.8 points on 62.9% true shooting (.513/.500/.879) with 6.8 rebounds, 5.3 assists and a plus-9 net rating.

However, NOLA plus the points is a much sharper wager so I’d only SPRINKLE on the PELICANS (+225), if at all.

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Against the spread

Definitely BET the PELICANS +6.5 (-108) heavier than or instead of their ML based on the prior analysis and NOLA is outscoring Phoenix by 3.3 points per 100 possessions in this series.

More importantly, the Suns are a lot less scary without Booker who is their only dude that can consistently create his own looks in half-court sets. The Pelican have Ingram and SG C.J. McCollum who is quietly averaging 24.0 points per game in this series.

The PELICANS PLUS THE POINTS is my favorite bet in this game.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 214.5 (-107) because this is a Pros vs. Joe’s scenario in the betting market for the total and Pelicans-Suns is the third-slowest-paced series in the playoffs.

More cash is on the Under whereas more bets have been placed on the Over according to pregame.com and the oddsmakers are reacting to the money in the market by lowering the total down from the 217-point opener.

In sports betting it’s typically profitable to follow the money when it’s counter to the public because professional bettors put up more dough than your average Joe.

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

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Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans Game 4 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans Game 4 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (2-1) play the No. 8 seed New Orleans Pelicans (1-2) Sunday in the Smoothie King Center at 9:30 p.m. ET for Game 4 of their Western Conference first-round playoff series. Below, we look at the Suns vs. Pelicans odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Friday’s Game 3 saw a vintage Chris Paul performance where the future Hall of Famer put up 28 points on 55.6% shooting with 14 assists in Phoenix’s 114-111.

Suns big Deandre Ayton outscored Pelicans big Jonas Valančiūnas 28-6, outshooting him 65.0% to -20.0% and outrebounding him 17-7.

NOLA’s two leading scorers in this series — SG C.J. McCollum and SF Brandon Ingram — held up their ends of the bargain in Game 3 by combining for 64 points on 52.4% shooting (7-for-17 from behind the arc).

Suns at Pelicans odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:47 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Suns -135 (bet $140 to win $100) | Pelicans +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
Against the spread: Suns -2.5 (-110) | Pelicans +2.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 214.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Suns at Pelicans key injuries

Suns

SG Devin Booker (hamstring) out

Pelicans

None

[tipico]

Suns at Pelicans picks and predictions

Prediction

Pelicans 107, Suns 103

Money line

LEAN PELICANS (+115) because I’d prefer to take any points I can get with NOLA, because if the Pelicans can do a little better versus the Suns’ pick-and-roll this series will be even heading back to Phoenix for Game 5.

NOLA is nearly doubling Phoenix’s rebounding rate for this series and the Suns won a seesaw Game 3 despite shooting just 15.4% from 3-point land. It’s hard winning in today’s NBA shooting that poorly from behind the arc.

If CP3 or Ayton’s production tails off a smidge, Game 4 will be very winnable for the Pelicans especially since role players shoot better at home and a loss Sunday would put NOLA’s season on the brink.

However, CP3 has a knack for rising to the occasion in clutch moments so the Suns could certainly eke this game out hence the LEAN PELICANS (+115).

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Against the spread

BET the PELICANS +2.5 (-110) since they are the home team and need Game 4 like blood. Also, we are seeing reverse line movement (RLM) headed towards NOLA in the betting market.

According to VegasInsider.com and Pregame.com, a vast majority of the money and action is on the Suns -2.5 (-110), but they opened as 3-point favorites. RLM is a red flag because you have to ask yourself why are the sportsbooks making the more popular team cheaper? Hmmm.

Furthermore, I’ll take any basketball team getting points if they are going to own the glass like the Pelicans have in this series. Basketball is about accumulating possessions to get more shots up and NOLA is almost guaranteed to win the battle of possessions with its edge on the glass.

The PELICANS PLUS THE POINTS is my favorite wager in this game.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 214.5 (-108) only because we are getting to the party late on the total but the presumed sharp side of the market is projected a higher-scoring Suns-Pelicans Game 4.

Most of the bets placed are on the Over 214.5 (-112), but roughly 90% of the money is on the Under (per Pregame and Vegas Insider). It can be profitable to follow the money when it’s counter to the public since the wiseguys put up a lot more dough than your average Joe.

But I only LEAN to the UNDER 214.5 (-108) because oddsmakers have reacted by lowering this total from the 217-point opener down to the current price so we’d be getting the worst of the number.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans Game 3 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans Game 3 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (1-1) visit the Smoothie King Center Friday for Game 3 of their Western Conference first-round playoff series with the No. 8 seed New Orleans Pelicans (1-1). Tip-off is set for 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Suns vs. Pelicans odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

New Orleans evened the series by upsetting Phoenix 125-114 in Game 2 Tuesday. Pelicans SF Brandon Ingram lit the Suns up for 37 points on 61.9% shooting, including 3-for-3 from behind the arc. He was also 8-for-8 from the foul line with 11 rebounds and 9 assists.

The major storyline from Game 2 was the injury to Suns All-Star SG Devin Booker, who exited in the third quarter with a hamstring issue after a 31-point first-half. Booker is expected to be sidelined for the rest of this series.

Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA April 22 playoff breakdown

Suns at Pelicans odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:37 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Suns -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Pelicans +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
Against the spread: Suns -2.5 (-110) | Pelicans +2.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 216.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Suns at Pelicans key injuries

Suns

SG Devin Booker (hamstring) out

Pelicans

PF Zion Williamson (foot) out

[tipico]

Suns at Pelicans picks and predictions

Prediction

Pelicans 112, Suns 107

Money line

LEAN PELICANS (+115) because New Orleans plus the points is a “sharper” play.

I also prefer to take the PELICANS TO WIN THE SERIES (+220) because the Suns (-319) are in real trouble without Booker.

Phoenix is a heck of a lot easier to defend without its best offensive player on the floor and NOLA’s length and defensive versatility will make it tough on the Suns and PG Chris Paul to execute their half-court offense. Also, CP3 is just 21-41 overall in his career on the road in the postseason.

More importantly, the Pelicans are outrebounding the Suns by 15 rebounds per game through the first 2 games and you cannot win a playoff series getting crushed on the glass this badly. In fact, New Orleans’ rebounding rate is more than double Phoenix’s in this series.

The Pelicans were 4th in offensive-rebounding rate during the regular season and 3rd in second-chance points per game (PPG) while the Suns were 21st in second-chance PPG allowed.

The Pelicans had the best fast-break defensive efficiency during the regular season, so I don’t see Phoenix having success in transition.

Finally, we are seeing the emergence of an elite wing scorer in Ingram and, now that Booker is out with an injury, Ingram is now the best player in this series.

It’s only a LEAN to the PELICANS (+115) because I’m fearful of a vintage CP3 performance in Phoenix’s first game without Booker and I prefer New Orleans’ spread.

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Against the spread

BET PELICANS +2.5 (-110).

I could see CP3 putting the Suns on his back for a clutch victory and New Orleans plus the points might come in handy.

This is my favorite wager in this game. Most of the wagered money is on the Suns, so I’d wait until closer to tip-off in hopes of getting a better price for New Orleans’ spread.

Over/Under

PASS since the total has been lowered from the 222-point look-ahead total, so we’d be getting the worst of the number with the Under.

I don’t like the Over since the Suns may slow down their tempo with Booker out and the Pelicans played at the 21st-fastest pace during the regular season.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns Game 2 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns Game 2 and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (1-0) host the No. 8 seed New Orleans Pelicans (0-1) Tuesday for Game 2 of their Western Conference first-round playoff series. Tip-off at the Footprint Center is set for 10 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Pelicans vs. Suns odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Phoenix handled business in a 110-99 win versus NOLA Sunday in Game 1, but barely covered as 10-point closing favorites. Suns’ future Hall of Fame PG Chris Paul went nuclear in the fourth quarter, scoring 19 of his 30 points in the final frame on 7-of-8 shooting (3-for-4 from behind the arc).

The Suns are 6-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) versus the Pelicans since acquiring CP3 in 2020. One of Phoenix’s SU and ATS losses to NOLA was earlier this year when Paul was out with an injury.

Pelicans at Suns odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:50 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Pelicans +420 (bet $100 to win $420) | Suns -600 (bet $600 to win $100)
Against the spread: Pelicans +9.5 (-110) | Suns -9.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 221.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Pelicans at Suns key injuries

Pelicans

None

Suns

None

[tipico]

Pelicans at Suns picks and predictions

Prediction

Suns 112, Pelicans 106

Money line

PASS with a “lean” toward the Pelicans (+420) because the payout is so fat and I like NOLA to cover the spread.

After getting stomped in the first half of Game 1, the Pelicans rallied back to within 6 points of the Suns and shot 54.3% from the field in the second half.

Furthermore, I don’t think the Pelicans get swept because their edge in the rebounding battle is big enough for NOLA to steal at least one game. The Pelicans have a plus-3.4 rebound-per-game margin and were plus-20 in rebounds versus the Suns for Game 1.

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Against the spread

BET the PELICANS +9.5 (-110) because of their aforementioned edge on the glass and there’s reverse line movement (RLM) headed toward NOLA in the betting market.

According to Pregame.com, more than 85% of the action is on the Suns -9.5 (-110), but Phoenix has been lowered from a 10-point opening favorite. It’s sketchy when the sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.

The RLM is more suspect in this matchup considering Phoenix was in control of Game 1 from the opening tip and was up as many as 23 points.

Also, I like NOLA’s chances at winning two of the “four factors” such as rebounding and free-throw attempt margins.

If NOLA can be more aggressive at attacking the basket and convert more on second-chance opportunities then the PELICANS +9.5 (-110) should cash.

Over/Under

PASS with a “lean” toward the Under 221.5 (-115) since the Pelicans are 9-24 O/U as road underdogs and the Suns are 0-6 O/U in their last 6 games.

Also, there’s more money on the Under but more bets have been placed on the Over, according to Pregame.com. This suggests the professional bettors are on the Under since sharps wager more money than your average Joe.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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