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The NASCAR Cup Series Phoenix Raceway Sunday for the 2024 Shriner’s Children 500. The green flag is scheduled to drop approximately at 3:30 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the 2024 Shriner’s Children 500 odds, and make our expert NASCAR picks and predictions.
2024 Shriner’s Children 500: What you need to know
- Penske Racing’s Joey Logano topped the charts in Friday’s practice session with a best speed of 131.167 mph and qualified 23rd
- Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin grabbed the pole position with a qualifying time of 132.655 and was 2nd in practice with a best speed of 131.081 mph, just ahead of 23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick at 131.066 mph
- Hamlin leads all active drivers with a 10.8 Average-Finish Position (AFP) in 37 career Cup starts at Phoenix, posting 2 wins, 16 top-5 finishes, 22 top-10 finishes and 868 laps led
- JGR’s Ty Gibbs struggled in his first 2 Phoenix Cup starts, turning in finishes of 21st and 28th. He’ll start 2nd after a qualifying time of 132.227 mph
- Richard Childress Racing’s Kyle Busch has 3 wins, 12 top-5 finishes, 26 top-10 runs and a circuit-best 1,190 laps led at Phoenix in his 37 career Cup starts, posting a solid 10.9 AFP
- Trackhouse Racing’s Ross Chastain won the most recent stop at Phoenix in November, starting from the 8th position
- The past 7 winners, and 12 of the previous 13, have started 10th or higher
- Penske’s Austin Cindric has struggled in Phoenix, posting a dismal 23.8 AFP in 4 Cup starts
- Hendrick’s Alex Bowman has just 2 top-10 finishes in 17 career Cup starts at Phoenix, while posting a dismal 22.5 AFP with 3 DNFs
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2024 Shriner’s Children 500 – Expert pick
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:20 a.m. ET.
JOEY LOGANO (+1100) has been doing well in practice and in qualifying so far this season, but something has gone wrong on race day. He was a respectable 9th last week at Las Vegas, but he was 32nd at the Daytona 500 and 28th in Atlanta. He has been running too good to stay out of Victory Lane for much longer.
Logano is tied with Kyle Busch with the most active wins (3) at Phoenix, and he had 8 top-5 finishes and 16 top-10 runs with 908 laps led in his 30 career Cup starts with a 12.8 AFP.
2024 Shriner’s Children 500 – Contender
KYLE BUSCH (+3000) has super long odds despite tremendous success at this track. Again, he is tied with Logano for the most wins at Phoenix among active drivers. Perhaps the books are a little bearish on Busch after he qualified 31st.
Look at the bigger picture, however, and take Busch based on his previous history at the track, not just one poor handful of laps.
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2024 Shriner’s Children 500 prop picks
KYLE BUSCH TOP-10 FINISH (+100)
At even-money, Busch is still a very good value. He has 37 career Cup starts at Phoenix Raceway, with 26 of those runs resulting in top-10 finishes. That’s a success rate of 70.3%. At +100, it’s too tempting to pass up.
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