The Philadelphia Phillies (52-53) start a four-game series with the Washington Nationals (49-56) Monday. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Ranger Suarez is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. Suarez is 5-3 with a 1.12 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, and 3.1 BB/9 in 40 1/3 IP. All 27 of his appearances have come in relief.
- Is expected to be a starter for the balance of the season after the team’s acquisition of RHP Ian Kennedy to serve as closer. Has logged six appearances of more than 2 innings but none since July 11.
- His ERA is buoyed by a .188 batting average on balls in play and an 85.8% left-on-base rate.
RHP Josiah Gray is the projected starter for the Nationals. Gray is a rookie who came over from the Dodgers in the RHP Max Scherzer trade. He made his first Major League start on July 25.
- Gray has coughed up 4 home runs and 6 ER in 8 IP through one start and one relief appearance. He walked 5 and struck out 13 across the two games.
- Is a converted shortstop who has only been pitching full-time for a few years. Called up last month after clocking just 198 Minor League innings from 2018-21.
Phillies at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:54 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Nationals +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+120) | Nationals +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -135 | U: -105)
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Prediction
Nationals 5, Phillies 4
Money line (ML)
Washington is tough on left-handed pitching, recording a league-leading .811 OPS, and righties swing the Phillies around to the lesser side of their platoon splits with a .704 OPS.
Statcast quality-of-contact numbers peg Philly as being rather lucky in their run-scoring so far; the numbers for the Nationals swing the other way.
Philadelphia is just 5-8 since July 20 and is 1-4 in road games over that stretch. The Nats are 4-2 with an .862 OPS over their last six games.
BACK THE NATIONALS (+100).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS on the added juice in the run line prop.
Over/Under (O/U)
Washington puts up solid offensive numbers at home and is on a nice roll with the bats. Neither bullpen should scare off an Over bettor, and both could have used a day off and figure to be tired heading into this series.
BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-135).
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