The Denver Nuggets (9-5) host the Philadelphia 76ers (8-7) Wednesday at Ball Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the 76ers vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Philly has lost five straight since big Joel Embiid went onto the NBA’s COVID-list (0-5 ATS). The Sixers have the second-worst team rating, defensive efficiency and rebounding rate over that span. Philly is 7-8 ATS and 6-8-1 O/U with the 10th-best net rating (plus-2.0).
Denver had its five-game win streak snapped Tuesday after losing 101-91 to the Dallas Mavericks as a 5.5-point road underdog. The Nuggets have a myriad of injury issues but are 7-7 ATS and 4-10 O/U with the seventh-best net rating (plus-4.4).
The Nuggets beat the Sixers in both regular-season meetings last year but Philly was without Embiid in each contest and covered in one of those losses.
76ers at Nuggets odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:02 p.m. ET.
- Money line: 76ers +250 (bet $100 to win $250) | Nuggets -320 (bet $320 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): 76ers +7.5 (-110) | Nuggets -7.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 208.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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76ers at Nuggets key injuries
76ers
- C Joel Embiid (health and safety protocols) out
- SF Matisse Thybulle (health and safety protocols) out
- SG Danny Green (hamstring) out
Nuggets
- SG Will Barton (back) doubtful
- SF Michael Porter Jr. (back) out
76ers at Nuggets odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Nuggets 109, 76ers 96
Money line
These teams should be priced much more evenly but the absence of Embiid makes the Nuggets (-320) too expensive.
Also, you could argue Denver big Nikola Jokic is playing even better to start this year than his MVP turn last season. However, it’s hard getting behind the Sixers (+250) to pull off an upset without Embiid in the lineup.
PASS.
Against the spread
“LEAN” to the NUGGETS -7.5 (-110) because I’m assuming a vast majority of the market will instinctively bet Denver considering Philly is without several contributors. However, betting on sports isn’t as easy as just wagering against teams missing their best players.
The Dallas Mavericks were able to cover as 8-point underdogs at the Phoenix Suns Wednesday without G Luka Doncic. Roughly 85% of the money at the time of publishing is on the Nuggets according to pregame.com.
That said, as long as Denver doesn’t get reckless with the ball and funnel its offense through Jokic, it’s NUGGETS -7.5 (-110) or pass in this spot. The Sixers have given up the most paint points and fastbreak points and second-most second-chance points per game since Embiid has been sidelined.
Over/Under
BET the UNDER 208.5 (-107) even though it’s a pretty obvious wager as well. However, Denver is 1-5 O/U with a minus-20.4 margin vs. the total as a home favorite this year.
The Nuggets also rank third in defensive efficiency and Denver plays at the third-slowest pace in the Association while Philly plays the slowest pace.
There’s been a “sharp line move” towards the Under in this game. 76ers-Nuggets opened with a 210-point total and early action steamed it down to the current price.
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