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2023 Travelers Championship odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the golf odds to win the 2023 Travelers Championship, with PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

There will be no break for the game’s top players after the year’s toughest test. Following the U.S. Open, the PGA Tour is heading to Cromwell, Conn., for the 2023 Travelers Championship – a designated event with a loaded field, led by world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and U.S. Open champion  Wyndham Clark.

Below, we look at the 2023 Travelers Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Scheffler (+650) leads a star-studded field that also features Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay and Viktor Hovland. Schauffele won this tournament last year by 2 shots over J.T. Poston. The Travelers Championship has often drawn some of the biggest names but there’s never been a field as strong as this one at TPC River Highlands.

The course isn’t a very long one. It’s a par 70 and plays at 6,841 yards and was designed by Pete Dye, featuring some iconic finishing holes – including the driveable par-4 15th and the par-4 17th hole that bends around a pond. The course reopened in 2016 after a renovation, including reworked bunkers, tees and greens around the venue, which is cut between homes and condos.

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Travelers Championship – Expert picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 9:35 a.m. ET.

Collin Morikawa (+2500)

This is a good course for Morikawa. It’s a 2nd-shot track that requires players to be in the right position off the tee and to be accurate into relatively small greens protected by bunkers. He missed the cut here in 2020, but he tied for 36th in 2019. He’s fresh off a T-14 at the U.S. Open and has put to rest concerns about his back spasms.

Xander Schauffele (+1400)

Schauffele won this tournament last year and tied for 20th in 2020, skipping the event in between in 2021. Though he disappointed on the weekend at Los Angeles Country Club, he fired a tournament-record 62 on Thursday and gained strokes in every category except around the greens (-0.17). He’s a strong candidate to win this event in back-to-back years.

Tommy Fleetwood (+3300)

Fleetwood ranks 72nd on tour in driving distance but you don’t have to be terribly long to win on this course. Fleetwood can flight the ball high and low, which helps with some of the elevation change throughout this course. He fired a 63 on Sunday at LACC and could carry that momentum into this week’s designated event.

Travelers Championship picks – Contenders

Tom Kim (+5000)

Kim showed a lot of poise and skill at the U.S. Open, finishing T-8 after shooting 3-over 73 in the 1st round. He ranked 4th in SG: approach, according to Data Golf, and now heading into an event where strong iron play is essential, he makes a lot of sense to contend at TPC River Highlands. I’m not worried about this being his tournament debut. That hasn’t bothered him in the past and it won’t this week.

Sahith Theegala (+5500)

Theegala had a very good chance to win the Travelers last year, but a drive into the fairway bunker on 18, followed by a thin shot into the lip, doomed his chances. He finished T-2 after doubling the last hole, losing by 2 shots to Schauffele. He hasn’t missed a cut since last October and finished T-27 at the U.S. Open, and this type of event suits him much better as he leads the tour in birdies this season (332).

Russell Henley (+4000)

Henley is the most accurate driver on tour, ranking 1st in fairway percentage (72.68%). On a course that emphasizes accuracy more than length off the tee, Henley is a great fit, especially with how well he hits his irons. He tied for 19th here in 2021, which is the last time he played this event. He’s quietly finished in the top 20 in his last 3 starts, including a T-14 at the U.S. Open.

Travelers Championship picks – Long shots

Brian Harman (+8000)

Harman is an absolute horse for this course. He has 4 top-10s in his last 5 starts here, including a T-8 last year. It’s a venue that seems to fit lefties well, with Bubba Watson winning here 3 times and Phil Mickelson winning twice. Harman is a long shot but his odds shouldn’t be as long as they are, especially after he played relatively well at the U.S. Open.

Harris English (+6600)

English won here in 2021 and enters in good form after tying for 8th at the U.S. Open, finding himself in contention on Saturday and early on Sunday. His odds certainly shortened after his U.S. Open performance, but he’s still worth betting given his course history.

Ludvig Aberg (+12500)

The rookie made his debut as a pro a couple of weeks ago at the RBC Canadian Open and looked more than comfortable en route to a T-25 finish. Now that he’s got the first-start jitters out of the way, he can play more freely and fly under the radar a little more in Cromwell. He has a complete game from tee to green.

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2023 U.S. Open prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2023 U.S. Open with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

Los Angeles Country Club is hosting a major championship for the 1st time  this week, bringing the best players in the world together for the 2023 U.S. Open. Matt Fitzpatrick’s title defense begins on Thursday morning with Round 1 from Beverly Hills.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 U.S. Open odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler continue to battle for the title of World No. 1, with Scheffler entering the week atop the Official World Golf Ranking. Rahm, however, is the top golfer in the latest Golfweek/Sagarin rankings, followed by Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay and Rory McIlroy. Fitzpatrick, who won the U.S. Open last year, is ranked 25th.

Players will be taking on the North Course at Los Angeles Country Club this week, a par 70 playing 7,423 yards. Two of the par 3s will be at least 280 yards, making them 2 of the longest in tournament history. The course opened in 1928 and was restored in 2010 by Gil Hanse, Jim Wagner and Geoff Shackelford. The fairways will be wider than most U.S. Open courses,  but several greens are narrow and will be protected by unmanicured bunkers.

2023 U.S. Open Championship

Follow the 2023 U.S. Open Championship leaderboard, scores, news, groupings, course details and more from Golfweek and USA TODAY. Catch the tournament June 15-18.

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U.S. Open – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 3:35 p.m. ET.

Brooks Koepka (+250)

After winning the PGA Championship, Koepka now has 14 top-5 finishes in 36 major championships, including 2 this year. At +250, he’s still a very good value to come in the top 5, especially considering both Scheffler (+150) and Rahm (+225) have shorter odds.

Viktor Hovland (+350)

Hovland tied for 7th at the Masters and 2nd at the PGA Championship, which are 2 of his 7 top-10 finishes already this season. It’s by far the best year of his career and I fully expect him to continue with another high finish at LACC this week, a course that demands top-level ball striking.

Cameron Smith (+500)

Smith continued his impressive major track record this year with a T-34 at the Masters and T-9 at the PGA Championship. LACC sets up well for him with his recovery skills around the greens and putting ability on these tricky, undulating surfaces. He already has 5 top-5 finishes in majors in his career.

Other T5 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Tony Finau (+650)
  • Xander Schauffele (+350)

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U.S. Open – Top-10 picks

Xander Schauffele (+175)

When it comes to the majors, and specifically the U.S. Open, bet Schauffele for a top-10 finish. He has 10 of them in his major championship career, with 5 of those coming in his 6 U.S. Open starts. His only finish outside the top 10 in the U.S. Open was in 2022 when he tied for 14th.

Max Homa (+240)

Homa has not played well in the majors. That’s well-documented. But this is a U.S. Open in his home state and at a venue where his 61 is the course record, set in college for Cal at the Pac-12 Championship. He has 8 top-10s in 16 starts this season; he just needs to break through and do it in a major.

Tyrrell Hatton (+275)

The fiery and often frustrated Hatton doesn’t seem like a good match for a difficult U.S. Open, but he’s one of the hottest players on the planet right now – and I’m not talking about his temper. He hasn’t finished worse than T-19 in his last 6 starts, a stretch that includes 3 top-5s. His U.S. Open record isn’t great but he’s never played this well in his career.

Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Justin Thomas (+350)
  • Dustin Johnson (+350)

U.S. Open – Top-20 picks

Rickie Fowler (+140)

Fowler has been a top-20 machine this season, notching 11 such finishes in 17 starts. He has 4 top-20 finishes in his U.S. Open career, so he’s played well in this challenging championship before, but this week is an excellent shot for him to claim his 1st major title in his home state.

Tommy Fleetwood (+150)

Fleetwood has been trending up for a little while now, peaking with a runner-up finish on Sunday at the RBC Canadian Open, losing to Nick Taylor in a playoff. He tied for 18th at the PGA last month, a similarly difficult test to the U.S. Open. He finished 4th and 2nd in the U.S. Open in 2017 and 2018, too.

Eric Cole (+450)

One of my long shots this week is Cole, whose only real weakness is driving the ball. In most U.S. Opens, fairways are narrow and penalizing when you miss them. But LACC features wider fairways than usual, which helps Cole, who has 5 top-25s in his last 7 starts. He tied for 15th at the PGA and 27th at the Players, 2 of the biggest tournaments he played this year.

Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Min Woo Lee (+350)
  • Justin Rose (+140)

U.S. Open – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Dustin Johnson (-120) vs. Bryson DeChambeau (-105)

This isn’t a bomb-and-gouge golf course or one that necessarily sets up for big hitters. Obviously, both DJ and Bryson are long off the tee, but Johnson typically has better control over his driver. As well as DeChambeau played in the PGA Championship, I favor Johnson’s game this week.

Min Woo Lee (-105) vs. Joaquin Niemann (-120)

Lee missed the cut at the Masters, but he was in contention at the Players (T-6) and finished T-18 at the PGA Championship. Niemann missed the cut at the PGA Championship and may not be in the type of form that Lee is.

Rickie Fowler (-135) vs. Cameron Young (+110)

Young’s sophomore slump has been shocking and disappointing after a fantastic rookie season. He hasn’t finished better than T-51 since the Masters and only has 6 top-25s in 15 starts. Fowler, on the other hand, has been as steady and consistent as anyone.

U.S. Open – Top Scandinavian

Viktor Hovland (-225)

Yes, the odds are very short for this bet. However, Alex Noren (+500) and Vincent Norman (+550) are the only other Scandinavian players with odds shorter than +1200 to win this bet. As long as Hovland makes the cut, this bet should cash because neither Noren nor Norman are legitimate threats to win at LACC.

U.S. Open – Top debutant

Cam Davis (+600)

It’s somewhat surprising that Davis has never played a U.S. Open before, but after seeing the way he played at Oak Hill in last month’s PGA Championship, I have no doubt he can succeed on this course in these conditions. Taylor Moore (+750) and Adam Svensson (+1000) are among the others vying to be the top debutant.

U.S. Open – First-round leader

Viktor Hovland (+2800)

Hovland had a share of the lead at the Masters after Round 1 after shooting 65. At the PGA Championship, he was 2 off the lead with a 1st-round 68. Why not go back to him in the U.S. Open after he just won his last start at the Memorial Tournament?

Max Homa (+4000)

Can the hometown kid come out and fire a low number at LACC where he has more experience than just about anyone in the field? Homa ranks 6th in 1st-round scoring average this season, too, so he’s played well on Thursdays all year.

More expert prop bet predictions

Group D winner: Tommy Fleetwood (+333)

This is a strong group with DeChambeau, Rose, Thomas and Johnson, all of whom are legitimate contenders to win this week, along with Fleetwood. Fleetwood comes in with arguably the best form after his runner-up finish last week and he deservingly has the 2nd-best odds in this group.

Fitzpatrick, Morikawa and Fleetwood to make the cut (+138)

Fitzpatrick got back on track after missing the cut at the PGA Championship, Morikawa is a pure ball striker who should excel on this course and I’ve already detailed my backing of Fleetwood this week. All three are good bets to make the cut.

Will there be a hole in one? No (+125)

Call me the no-fun guy, but I like the odds for there to be no aces this week. Even with 5 par-3s, these are no bargain. Two of them are 280-plus, another is 228 and the fourth is 171 yards. The most gettable one is a short 124-yard shot on the 15th, which could play as short as under 100 yards.

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2023 U.S. Open odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the golf odds to win the 2023 U.S. Open, with PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

The 3rd major of the year will be held in Southern California this week as the world’s best players take on Los Angeles Country Club in the 2023 U.S. Open. It’s the toughest test in golf and LACC is fully expected to uphold that tradition in its debut as a U.S. Open course. The 1st round will begin on Thursday from Beverly Hills.

Below, we look at the 2023 U.S. Open odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Scottie Scheffler, the No. 1 player in the world, is once again the betting favorite this week (+700) as he seeks to win his 1st U.S. Open title and 2nd career major. Jon Rahm has the 2nd-best odds to win (+1000), followed by reigning PGA Championship winner Brooks Koepka (+1100) in the 3rd spot. Defending U.S. Open champion Matt Fitzpatrick is +3300 to keep the trophy this week.

Los Angeles Country Club is going to test every aspect of a player’s game, featuring wider-than-usual fairways for a U.S. Open, but also the iconic deep rough around the greens and lengthy layout. This week, it’ll play as a par 70 at 7,421 yards, with just 3 par 5s and 5 par 3s. The par 3s will be a real brute, with 2 of them playing upwards of 280 yards, making them some of the longest in U.S. Open history. There’s also a par 3, the 15th hole, set to play under 100 yards.

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U.S. Open – Expert picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 10:50 a.m. ET.

Brooks Koepka (+1100)

Koepka is healthy and still fully motivated to win every major he can, already taking home the Wanamaker Trophy at the PGA Championship last month – after finishing T-2 at the Masters in April. It’s reasonable to consider him the favorite this week in a tournament he’s already won twice, absolutely excelling on courses that are challenging and require players to grind.

Xander Schauffele (+2000)

There probably isn’t a player in the world with a better track record in the U.S. Open without a win than Schauffele. He has 5 top-7 finishes in 6 starts in this tournament, with the only exception being a T-14 last year. He’s due for a major title and with his tee-to-green play, this could be the week he gets it done.

Max Homa (+2800)

You’ll hear it a million times this week: Homa knows this place well and holds the course record after shooting a 9-under 61 at the Pac-12 Championship in 2013 when he was at Cal. His major championship track record is nothing to be enamored by – nothing better than a T-40 in his career – but this is the perfect time for him to break through with a strong week in his home state.

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U.S. Open picks – Contenders

Rickie Fowler (+6600)

Fowler has 6 top-10 finishes and a whopping 12 top-25s in 17 starts this season, putting together one of the best years of his career despite not having a victory. In his last 11 stroke play events, he has 9 top-20s, has made the cut 10 times and has finished no worse than a T-31 when he has played the weekend. His last 2 starts were T-6 and T-9 so he comes in in great form, too.

Justin Rose (+4000)

Rose knows what it takes to win this tournament, having done so in 2013. He, too, comes in playing some excellent golf, finishing T-9, T-12 and 8th in his last 3 starts, with the T-9 coming in the PGA Championship after tying for 16th at the Masters. He’s been abysmal off the tee (104th in strokes gained) this season, but with wider fairways, his poor accuracy with the driver will be mitigated.

Tommy Fleetwood (+4000)

There are few players I like more than Fleetwood this week. While you could’ve gotten his odds much longer a few months ago, he’s still worth the price at +4000 with the way he’s playing. He lost to Nick Taylor in a playoff at the RBC Canadian Open on Sunday, which was his 4th top-10 of the season and 7th top-25. Only 9 players rank higher than him in SG: tee-to-green and he’s 6th on tour in total strokes gained. He’s the complete package right now.

U.S. Open picks – Long shots

Min Woo Lee (+12500)

In his last 6 major starts, these are Lee’s results: T-14, MC, T-27, T-21, MC and T-18. Add in a T-6 in his Players Championship debut this year and it’s clear he has the game for marquee events. The young Australian finished T-27 in his U.S. Open debut last year and could follow that up with another high finish this week. He’s worth a long-shot bet.

Eric Cole (+20000)

Cole didn’t play the Masters this year but he tied for 15th at the PGA Championship and tied for 27th at the Players. He nearly won the Honda Classic in February when he lost in a playoff and he’s fresh off a T-6 at the RBC Canadian Open after shooting 63 on Sunday. He has 5 top-25 finishes in his last 7 starts so the recent form is there.

Keegan Bradley (+8000)

Bradley has cooled off a little bit after a hot start to the season, but he’s still made the cut in 5 straight starts with no finish worse than T-48. That stretch includes a T-23 at the Masters and T-29 at the PGA, continuing to play well in the majors the last 2 years.

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2023 RBC Canadian Open prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2023 RBC Canadian Open with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

The PGA Tour will make 1 more stop before the U.S. Open, heading to Oakdale Golf and Country Club for the 2023 RBC Canadian Open this week. The 1st round will begin on Thursday morning from Toronto, Ontario, with the champion being crowned on Sunday.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 RBC Canadian Open odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Rory McIlroy won this event the last 2 times it was played in 2022 and 2019; it was canceled in both 2019 and 2020 due to COVID-19. He’s once again the favorite to win this week, coming in with by far the shortest odds of any player at +450. Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Fitzpatrick and Sam Burns are also among the favorites at Oakdale.

This is the first time Oakdale Golf and Country Club has hosted the RBC Canadian Open, joining the event’s rotation this year with the course set to host again in 2026. It’s a par 72 and will play at 7,264 yards, making it a shorter course. However, the elevation changes make it longer than the listed yardage, and the small greens are difficult to hit.

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RBC Canadian Open – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 12:25 p.m. ET.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+300)

Fitzpatrick missed the cut at the PGA Championship and appeared to be on the verge of a 2nd straight MC when he was 5 over thru 14 holes on Thursday at the Memorial Tournament, but he quickly turned things around. He fired a 2nd-round 68 to make the cut before shooting 70 and 72 on the weekend, finishing T-9. It was an impressive bounce-back and could be a good sign heading into this week.

Justin Rose (+350)

Rose took last week off, but he’s been on a heater lately with 2 top-10s, 5 top-25s and 6 top-36 finishes in his last 6 starts. Those 2 top-10s came at the Players Championship and PGA Championship, too. Though it was at a different course, Rose finished T-4 at the RBC Canadian Open last year.

RBC Canadian Open – Top-10 picks

Tommy Fleetwood (+188)

Fleetwood should be able to navigate this course with his elite ball-striking, currently sitting 10th on tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green. He’ll have an edge on the field with fairways being so important to hit and the greens being as small as they are. He has 3 consecutive top-25 finishes coming into this week.

Matt Kuchar (+333)

Kuchar’s rounds of 79 and 84 at the Memorial Tournament really did him in, otherwise playing well on Friday and Saturday. He has 7 top-25 finishes this season and 4 top-10s, also finishing T-4 in this event in 2019. His odds of +333 feel a bit longer than they should be.

Shane Lowry (+180)

Lowry has finished in the top 12 in this event 3 times in a row, including a runner-up in 2019. He’s hitting the ball really well right now, ranking 16th in SG: tee-to-green, but his putter has failed him; he’s 176th in SG: putting so far this year. If this doesn’t turn into a putting contest, he should be in contention.

RBC Canadian Open – Top-20 picks

Ludvig Aberg (+210)

Aberg may be making his pro debut, but this isn’t his 1st PGA Tour event. He’s played in 5 already over the last 2 years, finishing T-24 and T-61 in his 2 starts this season; the T-24 was at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. I expect him to play well, especially after getting a warm-up day in the U.S. Open qualifier, finishing just 3 shots out of a qualifying spot.

David Lipsky (+250)

Lipsky has finished in the top 20 in back-to-back tournaments, going T-16 at the Charles Schwab Challenge and T-12 a the Memorial – despite shooting 5-over on Sunday. I’ll ride the hot hand with +250 odds for a top-20 finish.

RBC Canadian Open – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Matt Fitzpatrick (-125) vs. Sam Burns (+100)

Fitzpatrick has better recent form with 3 top-10s in his last 5 starts, including a win. Burns is heating up with back-to-back top-16s, but I like Fitzpatrick’s game on this course better.

Justin Rose (-110) vs. Corey Conners (-110)

Conners missed the cut last week, his 2nd MC in his last 5 starts. In that same span, Rose hasn’t finished worse than T-36 and has 3 top-16s. Rose is the pick here at even odds with Conners.

Matt Kuchar (+100) vs. Keith Mitchell (-125)

Mitchell has had mixed results lately, finishing no better than T-48 in his last 5 solo starts. Kuchar has been up and down a little bit, too, but at even money, I like him to finish higher than Mitchell.

RBC Canadian Open – Top Irish

Shane Lowry (+210)

This is one way to fade McIlroy, which may not be a bad idea given the news of the PGA Tour-LIV Golf merger that broke on Tuesday. McIlroy has said recently that he wanted to shift his focus more toward on-course performance instead of defending the PGA Tour, but that might be tough this week. Lowry only has to beat McIlroy and David Carey to cash this bet.

RBC Canadian Open – Top Swedish

Ludvig Aberg (+125)

Aberg is the favorite to finish as the top Swedish player, ahead of Vincent Norman (+188), Henrik Norlander (+500) and David Lingmerth (+600). It might seem risky to bet him in his pro debut, but Aberg is the most talented player of the bunch and this is a lower-risk way to back him this week.

RBC Canadian Open – First-round leader

Justin Rose (+3000)

Rose ranks 13th on tour in 1st-round scoring this season and has broken 70 in 4 straight opening rounds and 5 of his last 6.

More expert prop bet predictions

Group D winner: David Lipsky (+450)

Lipsky has the longest odds of anyone in this group, which consists of Joseph Bramlett (+300), Nick Taylor (+350), Eric Cole (+350) and Michael Kim (+350). With back-to-back top-20s, I like his odds this week in Canada.

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2023 RBC Canadian Open odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the golf odds to win the 2023 RBC Canadian Open, with PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

With just 1 week to go until the golf world descends upon Los Angeles for the 123rd U.S. Open, many of the top players will tee it up at Oakdale Golf and Country Club for the 2023 RBC Canadian Open. The 1st round begins  Thursday morning from Toronto, Ontario.

Below, we look at the 2023 RBC Canadian Open odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Rory McIlroy is looking to defend his back-to-back titles this week after winning by 2 shots over Tony Finau last year, the 2nd time he’s won this event since 2019; it was canceled in 2020 and 2021. Finau is taking the week off, but McIlroy (the favorite at +400) will still face some stiff competition from Tyrrell Hatton (+1100), Matt Fitzpatrick (+1400), Sam Burns (+1400), Cameron Young (+1600) and several others.

This tournament changes venues often, though Glen Abbey Golf Course has hosted it the most. This will be the 1st time Oakdale Golf and Country Club hosts the RBC Canadian Open, giving players a new challenge. So it will be difficult to predict this year’s results based on recent finishes by players in the field. Oakdale is a par 72 and plays at 7,264 yards, featuring small greens and plenty of elevation changes.

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RBC Canadian Open – Expert pick(s)

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 10:30 a.m. ET.

Tommy Fleetwood (+2000)

Before missing the cut at the Charles Schwab Challenge, Fleetwood notched 3 straight top-20 finishes, including a T-5 at the Wells Fargo Championship. He’s among the best ball strikers on tour, ranking 10th in strokes gained: tee to green, which makes him a terrific fit for a course with small greens.

Justin Rose (+1600)

Like his fellow Englishman Fleetwood, Rose is also trending up with 6 straight top-36 finishes and back-to-back top-12s. Though it was a different course, Rose shot 10-under in the final round of last year’s RBC Canadian Open to finish 4th. I love his chances this week at Oakdale.

RBC Canadian Open picks – Contender(s)

Byeong Hun An (+5000)

An finished T-24 at the Memorial Tournament on Sunday, but he hit the ball much better than that number suggests. He ranked 10th in the field in strokes gained: tee to green, primarily struggling on the greens where he lost 0.61 shots to his competitors. He now has 3 straight top-25 finishes and could keep that up this week in Canada.

Matt Kuchar (+4000)

There were a lot of high scores at Muirfield last week, including a 79 and 84 by Kuchar on Thursday and Sunday, respectively. In-between, he shot impressive rounds of 67 and 69, going into the final round at 1-under par before shooting 12-over. He has 7 top-25 finishes already this season.

RBC Canadian Open picks – Long shot(s)

Ludvig Aberg (+8000)

Could Aberg follow Rose Zhang’s path and win his 1st career start as a pro? Don’t rule it out, especially considering this isn’t his 1st PGA Tour event. Earlier this year, he tied for 24th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and also made the cut at the Valspar Championship where he finished T-61. He’ll probably feel some pressure in his pro debut, but Aberg has a ton of talent.

David Lipsky (+8000)

Lipsky was in contention at the Memorial before shooting 5-over on Sunday to finish T-12. He didn’t have any major weaknesses in his game, gaining strokes in all the major categories, led by his 1.24 SG: tee to green. He just made a few too many mistakes on Sunday, but I like his odds to bounce back after also finishing T-16 the week prior.

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2023 Memorial Tournament prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2023 Memorial Tournament with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

With 2 weeks to go until the U.S. Open, the PGA Tour is in Ohio for the 2023 Memorial Tournament, hosted by Jack Nicklaus at Muirfield Village. The 1st round begins Thursday morning with many of the top players in the world taking on Jack’s place.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 Memorial Tournament odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Jon Rahm is in the field this week and comes in as the No. 1 player in the latest Golfweek/Sagarin rankings. Scottie Scheffler isn’t 2nd, however, despite being the favorite to win. The No. 2 spot goes to Xander Schauffele, followed by Scheffler at No. 3, Patrick Cantlay at No. 4 and Tony Finau rounding out the top 5. The defending champion, Billy Horschel, is ranked No. 104 this week.

Muirfield Village is a par 72 and will play at 7,533 yards this week. It was designed by Nicklaus, featuring heavy rough and difficult greenside bunkers that protect the putting surfaces on approach shots.

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Memorial Tournament – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 4:15 p.m. ET.

Jason Day (+450)

Day calls Muirfield home, even if he doesn’t play there very often. It’s a course he knows well and the familiarity should help get him back on track after a rough week at the PGA Championship, which followed his 1st win of the season. He finished 31st here last year and 4th in 2020.

Jon Rahm (+150)

It’s hard to stomach betting any golfer to finish top 5 at +150, but Rahm is worth it. He won in 2020 and had a 54-hole lead in 2021 before being forced to withdraw due to COVID-19. Last year, he finished 10th at the Memorial, his 3rd straight top-10 here – even if the 2nd one was unofficial.

Xander Schauffele (+275)

Schauffele is due for a win this year after notching 8 top-10s already. He has 4 straight top-20 finishes at this event, so he’s played well here in the past. It’s just a matter of him breaking through for a victory at Muirfield Village. He has 5 top-5 finishes this season.

Memorial Tournament – Top-10 picks

Patrick Cantlay (-120)

Cantlay has 4 top-5 finishes in the last 5 years here. Yes, you read that right. He could be poised for another this year, potentially even going on to win it for the 3rd time in a span of 5 years. At -120, his odds might seem a bit rich but he’s playing really well right now and has the best track record of anyone at this event.

Rory McIlroy (+115)

It’s not often you get McIlroy at +115 for a top-10 but given the strong field and his so-so recent form, we get him at a good price. He has 2 top-10s and 4 top-20s here since 2016, often playing well at this Nicklaus-designed course. He has 4 top-10s in 9 starts this season.

Sahith Theegala (+375)

In 19 starts this season, Theegala already has 7 top-10 finishes and though he’s only played this event twice, he’s finished 32nd and 5th. Muirfield seems to suit his game well and I think he’ll have another solid week this time around, too.

Memorial Tournament – Top-20 picks

Rickie Fowler (+125)

Fowler has finished in the top 20 in most of his starts this season, going 11-for-16 with 5 top-10s, as well. Since 2017, he has 4 top-20s at this event, including 2 top-10s and a 2nd-place finish in 2017. Fowler + Muirfield + top-20 = a great recipe.

Tom Kim (+170)

Kim is making his debut in this tournament, but his game travels well, regardless of the type of course. Yes, Muirfield is a little long, but his iron play is strong and he already has 8 top-25s on the year thus far.

Shane Lowry (+170)

Lowry is 50th in total strokes gained and 19th in approach, so he’s been hitting the ball well this season despite only finishing in the top 10 once. In the last 2 years here, he tied for 6th and 32nd.

Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Justin Suh (+400)
  • Keith Mitchell (+300)

Memorial Tournament – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Rickie Fowler (-125) vs. Matt Fitzpatrick (+100)

Fowler’s track record here was already mentioned, as well as his impressive play this season. Fitzpatrick has been up and down this year and missed the cut here in each of the last 2 years. Give me Fowler, a horse for this course.

Adam Scott (-110) vs. Keegan Bradley (-110)

Scott hasn’t missed the cut here in his last 5 starts and has finished in the top 20 twice, with one of those being a runner-up finish in 2019. Bradley hasn’t been great in this event recently, missing the cut in 2017, 2019 and 2021.

Corey Conners (-105) vs. Cameron Young (-120)

I like Conners’ iron game over Young’s length at Muirfield because this isn’t necessarily a course that bombers can take advantage of. Young did go low with a 67 in the opening round last year, but he also shot 84 on Sunday.

Memorial Tournament – Top Canadian

Corey Conners (+150)

Conners has finished in the top 12 in each of his last 2 starts, including the PGA Championship where he fell out of contention with a 75 on Sunday. There are only 4 other Canadians in the field and Adam Hadwin is the 2nd favorite at +300.

Memorial Tournament – Top Irish

Shane Lowry (+225)

McIlroy is obviously the favorite at -150, and even though I like his chances this week, I’m taking the value with Lowry at +225 with only 3 Irishmen in the field; Seamus Power is the other. All Lowry has to do is beat 2 players to cash this ticket.

Memorial Tournament – First-round leader

Sahith Theegala (+5000)

Theegala shot 68 in the opening round here last year, which was tied for the 2nd-lowest score on Thursday. He wound up finishing 5th in just his 2nd appearance at this event.

Collin Morikawa (+3300)

Morikawa was the 1st-round leader last year when he shot 66, the best round of the opening round by 1. With so much emphasis on iron play this week, he could go low in Round 1 if the putter cooperates.

More expert prop bet predictions

Group C winner: Rickie Fowler (+350)

Let’s go back to Fowler here. His group consists of Sungjae Im (+280), who has missed 2 straight cuts, Cameron Young (+375), Hideki Matsuyama (+375) and Matt Fitzpatrick (+400). Fowler has been so consistent this season and has also played well at Muirfield in the past.

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2023 Memorial Tournament odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the golf odds to win the 2023 Memorial Tournament, with PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

It’s once again a strong field teeing it up this year at the 2023 Memorial Tournament, led by the top 2 players in the world, Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm. Muirfield Village plays host to this great event, which many players use as a tune-up before the U.S. Open.

Below, we look at the 2023 Memorial Tournament odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Scheffler edges out Rahm as the favorite this week, coming in with +600 odds compared to Rahm’s +750. Patrick Cantlay and Rory McIlroy are  next at +1000, with the former being a 2-time champion in the last 4 years. Billy Horschel is the defending champion but he has long odds at +8000.

Muirfield Village, designed by Jack Nicklaus, is a staple of the PGA Tour schedule. It’s a difficult course that penalizes players for missing the fairways thanks to its thick rough, while bunkers protect the greens and make par saves difficult when missing the putting surface. It’s a par 72 and plays at 7,533 yards after being lengthened a bit 2 years ago.

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Memorial Tournament – Expert picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 10:55 a.m. ET.

Patrick Cantlay (+1000)

Cantlay has won this tournament twice in the last 4 years and he’s also added 2 other top-5 finishes at this event since 2018. He’s got the best track record at Muirfield of any player in the field, and even at +1000, he’s worth betting to win again this week. He hasn’t finished worse than T-21 in a single start since missing the cut at the Waste Management Phoenix Open in February.

Jason Day (+3000)

Day is a member at Muirfield Village, but that doesn’t mean he plays it regularly. He said last year that he only played 9 holes in the previous 2 years despite living just 30 minutes from the course. At the very least, playing here will let Day be close to home, which is a little bit of an advantage. He tied for 4th in 2020 and came in 31st last year, playing well at this course in the past. Though he missed the cut at the PGA Championship, he won the AT&T Byron Nelson the week prior.

Memorial Tournament picks – Contenders

Rickie Fowler (+4000)

Fowler loves this place. In his last 6 starts here since 2017, he’s gone T-2, T-8, T-14, MC, T-11 and T-64 last year. That’s 4 top-15 finishes in the last 6 years, which is an impressive streak at a course that can play so difficult. He bounced back from a MC at the PGA Championship by finishing T-6 at the Charles Schwab Challenge last week, so I like the way he’s trending heading into this week.

Shane Lowry (+4500)

Lowry tied for 12th at the PGA Championship before taking last week off, but he’s back in the field in an event where he tied for 6th in 2021 and 32nd last year. He has the ball-striking prowess to go low on this course, which emphasizes the importance of accurate approach shots into firm greens.

Tom Kim (+5500)

Kim is making his debut at this event, which is something he does often on tour, being such a young player. That hasn’t bothered him in the past and though he’s not the longest hitter, his driving distance won’t hinder him too much this week because it’s not a course that bombers can really overpower. He’s finished in the top 25 in nearly half of his starts this season (8 of 17).

Memorial Tournament picks – Long shot(s)

Justin Suh (+12500)

Suh continues to play some good golf, adding another top 20 at Colonial last week – his 6th top-25 of the season. The only time he’s played the Memorial was in 2019 when he missed the cut, but that’s not something to worry too much about because he’s a significantly better player now than he was as a rookie.

Keith Mitchell (+10000)

Since 2019, Mitchell has played the Memorial 3 times and has finished T-48, T-22 and T-18 – which are pretty good results, especially considering he’s improved his finish each year. He’s struggled a bit recently, with back-to-back finishes outside the top 50, but he could get back on track at Muirfield.

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2023 Charles Schwab Challenge prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

Following Brooks Koepka’s win at the PGA Championship, the next stop on the tour’s schedule is the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge in Fort Worth, Texas. Colonial Country Club will once again host this event, which features big names such as Scottie Scheffler and Jordan Spieth.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite (+400) to win this week, just as he was at the AT&T Byron Nelson a few weeks ago, but Spieth – a fellow Texas native – has performed extremely well in this event, finishing in the top 10 in 7 of the last 8 years. Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland will also be in the field, as will defending champion Sam Burns.

Colonial Country Club won’t present the same challenges that Oak Hill did last week, but it’s by no means an easy course. At 7,209 yards, it’s not an extremely long course, emphasizing accuracy and positioning over distance off the tee. It’ll play as a par 70 with trees lining the fairways, requiring players to be accurate in order to avoid trouble off the tee. The winning score last year was 9-under after it ranged from 12-under to 20-under in the previous seven years. In fact, the winning score has been 10-under or better in 18 of the last 20 years.

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Charles Schwab Challenge – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 10:54 a.m. ET.

Jordan Spieth (+275)

Spieth mitigated concerns about his wrist last week when he finished all 4 rounds at the PGA Championship, even if he didn’t have his best stuff. That gives me enough confidence to go with him in an event he absolutely owns. In the last 8 years at the Charles Schwab Challenge, he’s had 4 top-5 finishes and 7 top-10s. His top-5 odds are somewhat short at +275, but they’re still worth playing.

Tony Finau (+275)

Like Spieth, Finau is also a horse for this course. He’s played this tournament in 7 of the last 8 years and finished in the top 5 twice with nothing worse than a 34th-place finish. Finau had his share of struggles at Oak Hill, but Colonial will feel like a walk in the park compared to the challenge he endured last week.

Sungjae Im (+350)

Im is a wild card at Colonial. He’s played this event the last 4 years, alternating missed cuts with a T-10 and T-15 in that span. His odds this week were probably lengthened due to his MC last week so you’re getting him at a decent number now. With his ball-striking and wedge work around the greens, he’s a good bet to win or at least finish in the top 5.

Charles Schwab Challenge – Top-10 picks

Russell Henley (+320)

Henley is the most accurate driver on tour, hitting the fairway 73.56% of the time. That will be an advantage this week, given the importance of not getting out of position when setting up your second shot into the greens. He’s also a premier iron player and hits a lot of greens, so he’ll have plenty of looks for birdie.

Collin Morikawa (+140)

Morikawa tied for 26th at the PGA Championship, which is a disappointing result by his standards. However, he was pretty solid all-around and he now comes to a course where ball-striking and iron play will be essential. If the putter can be even slightly above-average, he’ll be in contention on Sunday because he’s going to hit a lot of greens this week.

Cam Davis (+320)

Davis finished 7th here last year and is fresh off a T-4 at the PGA Championship, continuing some great play since returning from an illness that hampered him early in the season. In his last 6 starts, he has 3 top-10s. I love his odds for another top-10 at +320.

Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Justin Rose (+220)

Charles Schwab Challenge – Top-20 picks

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+250)

Bezuidenhout is usually a decent putter but he was abysmal at Oak Hill, ranking 3rd-worst in the field in strokes gained: putting last week. He was excellent from tee-to-green, finishing 10th in that category at the PGA Championship. I’ll bet his putting bounces back at Colonial.

Brian Harman (+200)

Harman has struggled as of late, missing the cut in 4 of his last 5 stroke-play starts. However, the one time he did make the cut, he finished T-7 at the RBC Heritage. Now might be a good time to buy low at an event where he has 3 top-10s and 7 top-31 finishes in the last 8 years. He seems to love this course and his top-20 odds should probably be shorter, all things considered.

Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Justin Suh (+350)
  • Brendon Todd (+200)

Charles Schwab Challenge – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Stephan Jaeger (+100) vs. Denny McCarthy (-125)

Jaeger fell apart a little bit on Sunday at the PGA Championship, shooting 6-over to finish T-50. But he’s been a stud recently, finishing T-18, T-27 and T-11 in his previous 3 starts. I’ll take him at even money against McCarthy, who has missed the cut twice here.

Brendon Todd (-125) vs. J.T. Poston (+100)

Todd isn’t a great pick on longer courses, but on a pick-and-plot course like Colonial, he makes sense. He finished 3rd and 8th in this event the last 2 years and is worth betting at -125 against Poston, who has missed the cut here in 3 of the last 4 years.

Justin Rose (+100) vs. Tommy Fleetwood (-125)

Rose shot 1-over on Sunday at the PGA Championship, but he still managed to finish in the top 10 – even after struggling mightily with his driver early in the week. He won this event in 2018 and finished 3rd in 2020, also notching a top-20 in 2021. I like Fleetwood’s chances this week, too, but Rose is the better value here.

Charles Schwab Challenge – Top South African

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+125)

Garrick Higgo at +275 is the second-favorite to be the top South African but I prefer Bezuidenhout, even at +125. Higgo missed the cut here in his debut last year, and the other South Africans in the field don’t pose as big a threat to Bezuidenhout’s chances.

Charles Schwab Challenge – Top Asian

Sungjae Im (+150)

Si Woo Kim (+300) and Byeong Hun An (+500) have the 2nd- and 3rd-best odds to finish as the top Asian player this week, but it’s really hard not to like Im with his iron play and work around the greens. Even after shooting 80 at the PGA last Thursday, Im is set up well for a high finish this week.

Charles Schwab Challenge – First-round leader

Scottie Scheffler (+1100)

One of my favorite ways to play the heavy favorites is by betting them to finish as the 1st-round leader. Dead heat rules lessen the reward, but at +1100, Scheffler offers good value to be atop the board on Thursday night. He was among the 8 players who shot 66 in the 1st round last year, which was the low round of the day.

Cam Davis (+5000)

Along with Scheffler, Davis also shot 66 in the opening round last year. He’s also fresh off a 5-under 65 in the final round of the PGA Championship, so perhaps he can carry over some of that momentum into this week’s 1st round.

More expert prop bet predictions

Group B winner: Justin Rose (+375)

Max Homa is the favorite in this group at +300, followed by Tommy Fleetwood (+333), Sam Burns (+375) and Rickie Fowler (+400). Rose finished better than all of them at the PGA Championship and now comes to an event where he’s won and had 2 top-5s in the last 5 years. I like him at these odds.

Will there be a playoff? Yes: (+350)

There’s been a playoff in 2 of the last 3 years at this event, with those being won by Burns and Daniel Berger. Let’s bet for another playoff in what’s a pretty strong field at Colonial.

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2023 Charles Schwab Challenge odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the golf odds to win the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge, with PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

This week doesn’t feature a post-major designated event like the RBC Heritage was the week after the Masters, but the stars will still be out at the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. The 1st round will begin on Thursday morning.

Below, we look at the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Coming out of PGA Championship week, runner-up Scottie Scheffler will tee it up again at Colonial as the heavy favorite. He’s +400 to win this week, by far the shortest odds of anyone in the field. Sam Burns (+2800) will try to defend his title after winning here a year ago, going up against Scheffler, Viktor Hovland,  Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau and Collin Morikawa. PGA Championship sensation Michael Block received an invitation, too, after finishing 15th on Sunday.

Colonial is a par 70 and plays at 7,209 yards and this is the 78th time it’s hosting a PGA Tour event. It’s not a very long course and bombers off the tee won’t have a considerable advantage, which makes this a 2nd-shot course with an emphasis on iron play and positioning. Burns won at 9-under par last year, beating Scheffler in a playoff.

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Charles Schwab Challenge – Expert picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 2:53 p.m. ET.

Tony Finau (+1600)

So much of Colonial CC comes down to positioning and accuracy into the greens. Finau may not be viewed as an accurate driver of the golf ball but he’s deadly with his irons, ranking 5th in strokes gained: approach this season. It’s how he’s notched 4 straight top-25 finishes in this event, including a tie for 4th last year and 2nd in 2019. Ignore his struggles at the PGA Championship last week. This is a course he excels on.

Russell Henley (+4000)

Henley missed the cut at the PGA Championship but he ranked 8th in SG: approach. It was his putter that let him down. With this being a course where accuracy is more important than length, Henley is a good fit, ranking 1st in fairway percentage this season – by a wide margin: 73.56% vs. 70.35% for the No. 2 player. He’s also a great iron player and before his MC at the PGA, he had 3 straight top-20s, including a T-4 at the Masters.

Sungjae Im (+2200)

Im’s odds this week were certainly hurt by his dreadful showing at the PGA Championship where he shot 80 in the 1st round and 73 in Round 2. That didn’t seem like a course that fit his game, requiring length off the tee, which he doesn’t have much of. Colonial is perfect for Im, who can plot his way around a course and make birdies. He tied for 15th here last year and 10th in 2020.

Charles Schwab Challenge picks – Contenders

Cam Davis (+4500)

Davis’ stock is on the rise after tying for 4th at the PGA thanks to a final-round 65, and only 3 players in the field gained more strokes tee-to-green than Davis: Scheffler, Brooks Koepka and Hovland. He tied for 7th here last year so it’s not as if his length was a disadvantage for him a year ago. He has 3 top-10s in his last 6 starts this season.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+6000)

Bezuidenhout didn’t make the cut last week but he did finish 10th in SG: tee-to-green. The 9 players ahead of him all finished top-30, with 7 of them finishing in the top 10. It was just a terrible week of putting for Bezuidenhout, who lost 2.23 strokes to the field on the greens – 3rd-worst in the field. He tied for 15th here last year.

Brendon Todd (+6600)

Todd is an accuracy specialist off the tee, which makes him a good fit for Colonial. He finished 8th in 2021 and 3rd last year so his track record at this event, as limited as it is, is strong. Before missing the cut at the PGA Championship, he tied for 8th at the Wells Fargo Championship.

Charles Schwab Challenge picks – Long shots

Justin Suh (+9000)

Suh has been a cut-maker and a sleeper pick so far this season. After missing the cut in his 1st 3 starts, he’s only missed one since. He’s fresh off a T-26 at the PGA Championship, which could’ve been much better if not for a 74 in pristine conditions on Sunday. He didn’t excel in one area last week but he was good all-around, which bodes well at Colonial.

Beau Hossler (+10000)

Hossler went to the University of Texas and played well here last year when he tied for 21st after shooting 66 and 65 in the first 2 rounds. It’s surprising to see his odds so long considering the way he’s played lately, making the cut in 6 straight starts with 2 top-10s, including a 3rd-place finish at the Zurich Classic. He tied for 40th at the PGA Championship last week.

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2023 PGA Championship prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2023 PGA Championship with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

The great Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, N.Y., will host the year’s 2nd major, the 2023 PGA Championship starting Thursday. Jon Rahm is looking to go back-to-back in the majors while Justin Thomas will try to defend his title and keep the Wanamaker Trophy in his grasp.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 PGA Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Rahm is the top-ranked golfer in this week’s Golfweek/Sagarin rankings, maintaining his spot at No. 1. It’s not Scottie Scheffler behind him in the 2nd spot, however. Xander Schauffele is ranked No. 2, followed by Scheffler, Tony Finau and Patrick Cantlay. Last year’s champion, Thomas, is ranked No. 10, behind Rory McIlroy (6), Max Homa (7), Sungjae Im (8) and Cameron Young (9).

The East Course at Oak Hill is hosting a major championship for the 7th time. The last major that was played here was in 2013, also the PGA Championship, which was won by Jason Dufner at 10-under par. The course has undergone a complete renovation since then, with trees being removed, bunkers relocated and holes lengthened. This week, it’ll play at 7,394 yards as a par 70, about 250 yards longer than 2013’s edition of the course.

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PGA Championship – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 10:41 a.m. ET.

Brooks Koepka (+400)

Say what you will about Koepka being able to close out tournaments, but if you bet him to finish in the top 5, you don’t have to sweat his performance on Sunday as much. In his career, he’s finished in the top 5 of a major an impressive 13 times, including at the Masters this year when he tied for 2nd.

Jon Rahm (+160)

Betting any player to finish top 5 in a major at +160 seems outrageous, but Rahm has an excellent chance to win this tournament. He won the Masters after spotting the field 2 shots on Thursday by doubling his 1st hole. He’s finished in the top 5 of a major 7 times in his career and his short odds to make it 8 are warranted.

Xander Schauffele (+400)

Schauffele might be the best player in the world right now who has never won a major, but he’s come incredibly close before. Since 2020, he’s only missed the cut in 2 majors and his worst finish is a T-26 when he has played the weekend. He has 6 top-5 finishes in his major career and Oak Hill sets up well for his game with how critical approach shots are.

Other T5 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Matt Fitzpatrick (+600)
  • Patrick Cantlay (+350)

PGA Championship – Top-10 picks

Viktor Hovland (+260)

Hovland had never finished in the top 10 of a major before the Open last year, which is shocking. However, in his last 2 major starts, he went T-4 and T-7, showing he can contend in the world’s biggest tournaments. He’s a pure ball-striker who should excel at Oak Hill.

Dustin Johnson (+220)

Johnson is coming off a win at LIV Golf’s event in Tulsa, so he’s in good form. He’s a former U.S. Open champion who’s known to excel on difficult courses, which Oak Hill certainly is. His high ball flight and controlled fades will allow him to hold greens in tough conditions. Plus, he’s got the power to muscle shots out of the heavy rough.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+275)

Fitzpatrick has 3 career top-10s in majors and they have come in his last 4 starts – including last year’s U.S. Open win. He has the game to survive tough conditions and avoid costly bogeys, which will be a major part of this week’s competition. With the length he’s added off the tee in recent years, he’s plenty long enough for Oak Hill, too.

Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Tommy Fleetwood (+400)
  • Max Homa (+275)
  • Tony Finau (+220)

PGA Championship – Top-20 picks

Tommy Fleetwood (+180)

In his last 5 major starts, Fleetwood has finished in the top 20 three times. He tied for 5th at the PGA last year and 4th at the Open Championship before playing relatively well at the Masters last month (T-33). His irons will give him an advantage on this course, which requires accuracy into the greens because missing in the rough will lead to difficult up-and-downs.

Adam Scott (+220)

Scott has notched a top-20 finish in 25 major starts since 2011, with 2 of those coming last year in the U.S. Open and Open Championship. He’s a great pick in the majors, even if his only win came in 2013. His last 2 starts this season were a T-5 at the Wells Fargo Championship and a T-7 at last week’s AT&T Byron Nelson, so he’s got some momentum.

Sahith Theegala (+225)

Theegala lacks major championship experience, only playing 4 of them in his career. However, in his last 2 major starts, he tied for 34th and finished 9th at the Open last year and the Masters this season. He’s played well in designated events this season, which are like mini-majors, so the stage isn’t too big for him.

Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Tom Hoge (+450)
  • Gary Woodland (+280)
  • Talor Gooch (+210)

PGA Championship – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Jason Day (-105) vs. Justin Thomas (-120)

I’ll fade the defending champion with just 2 top-10s this season in favor of a guy fresh off a win in Texas and 7 total top-10s. Day bounced back really well from a missed cut at the Wells Fargo Championship and I expect that momentum to continue this week.

Xander Schauffele (+120) vs. Rory McIlroy (-135)

Fade McIlroy on a long, potentially soft course in a major championship? It’s not always the best idea, but Rory is in a little bit of a slump right now and Schauffele is, well, not. Schauffele hasn’t finished worse than T-10 in his last 4 starts and has 3 top-5s in that span.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+100) vs. Sungjae Im (-125)

It’s mildly surprising to see Fitzpatrick as the underdog against Im. Fitzpatrick is a player who tends to play well in tough conditions, while Im thrives when birdies are easier to come by. This week will be about bogey avoidance and making par, which is why I like Fitzpatrick at even money.

PGA Championship – Top South American

Joaquin Niemann (+125)

There are only 4 South American players in the field this week: Niemann, Mito Pereira (+200), Emiliano Grillo (+350) and Nico Echavarria (+800). Pereira and Grillo are both contenders to finish as the top South American, but I like the way Niemann is trending and his game fits Oak Hill well. He won at Riviera before and will need to be similarly accurate into these narrow fairways. He finished 10th and 9th in his last 2 LIV starts.

PGA Championship – Top LIV golfer

Brooks Koepka (+333)

I expect Koepka to have a solid week in Rochester, just as he did at the Masters. There’s a lot of competition among LIV golfers this week, from Koepka down to Patrick Reed and Gooch, but Brooks has the major prowess that many others don’t. Whether he actually wins is a different story, but I can see another top-5 coming.

PGA Championship – First-round leader

Jon Rahm (+1800)

With Rahm’s odds so short across the board, playing him to lead after Round 1 is a good way to get some value. He leads the PGA Tour in 1st-round scoring average at 67.55, so he often comes out firing with low scores on Thursdays. And it doesn’t matter much whether he’s in the morning or afternoon wave in Round 1. He plays well in either slot.

Cameron Young (+4000)

Young hasn’t been able to put it all together for a PGA Tour victory yet, but he’s a player with a ton of firepower to go low in 1 round – as he’s frequently done. It only takes 1 good round for this bet to cash and if Young can get some soft conditions, his length will be an even greater advantage.

More expert prop bet predictions

Group A winner: Xander Schauffele (+500)

Schauffele is in the betting group with the top players in the field, led by Scheffler at +220 and Rahm at +260. McIlroy (+400) and Cantlay (+550) are also listed in this group, making Schauffele the 4th-favorite. I’ll take my chances at +500 on a player who has a real shot to win outright. All he has to do here is beat 4 other players.

Winning margin: 2 strokes (+350)

From 2017-21, the winning margin in the PGA Championship was 2 strokes each year. That’s 5 straight years with that winning margin before Thomas beat Will Zalatoris in a playoff last year. Oak Hill should keep scores on the higher side, but I think 1 player will build a little bit of a cushion and win by a pair of shots.

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