The great Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, N.Y., will host the year’s 2nd major, the 2023 PGA Championship starting Thursday. Jon Rahm is looking to go back-to-back in the majors while Justin Thomas will try to defend his title and keep the Wanamaker Trophy in his grasp.
Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 PGA Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
Rahm is the top-ranked golfer in this week’s Golfweek/Sagarin rankings, maintaining his spot at No. 1. It’s not Scottie Scheffler behind him in the 2nd spot, however. Xander Schauffele is ranked No. 2, followed by Scheffler, Tony Finau and Patrick Cantlay. Last year’s champion, Thomas, is ranked No. 10, behind Rory McIlroy (6), Max Homa (7), Sungjae Im (8) and Cameron Young (9).
The East Course at Oak Hill is hosting a major championship for the 7th time. The last major that was played here was in 2013, also the PGA Championship, which was won by Jason Dufner at 10-under par. The course has undergone a complete renovation since then, with trees being removed, bunkers relocated and holes lengthened. This week, it’ll play at 7,394 yards as a par 70, about 250 yards longer than 2013’s edition of the course.
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PGA Championship – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 10:41 a.m. ET.
Brooks Koepka (+400)
Say what you will about Koepka being able to close out tournaments, but if you bet him to finish in the top 5, you don’t have to sweat his performance on Sunday as much. In his career, he’s finished in the top 5 of a major an impressive 13 times, including at the Masters this year when he tied for 2nd.
Jon Rahm (+160)
Betting any player to finish top 5 in a major at +160 seems outrageous, but Rahm has an excellent chance to win this tournament. He won the Masters after spotting the field 2 shots on Thursday by doubling his 1st hole. He’s finished in the top 5 of a major 7 times in his career and his short odds to make it 8 are warranted.
Xander Schauffele (+400)
Schauffele might be the best player in the world right now who has never won a major, but he’s come incredibly close before. Since 2020, he’s only missed the cut in 2 majors and his worst finish is a T-26 when he has played the weekend. He has 6 top-5 finishes in his major career and Oak Hill sets up well for his game with how critical approach shots are.
Other T5 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+600)
- Patrick Cantlay (+350)
PGA Championship – Top-10 picks
Viktor Hovland (+260)
Hovland had never finished in the top 10 of a major before the Open last year, which is shocking. However, in his last 2 major starts, he went T-4 and T-7, showing he can contend in the world’s biggest tournaments. He’s a pure ball-striker who should excel at Oak Hill.
Dustin Johnson (+220)
Johnson is coming off a win at LIV Golf’s event in Tulsa, so he’s in good form. He’s a former U.S. Open champion who’s known to excel on difficult courses, which Oak Hill certainly is. His high ball flight and controlled fades will allow him to hold greens in tough conditions. Plus, he’s got the power to muscle shots out of the heavy rough.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+275)
Fitzpatrick has 3 career top-10s in majors and they have come in his last 4 starts – including last year’s U.S. Open win. He has the game to survive tough conditions and avoid costly bogeys, which will be a major part of this week’s competition. With the length he’s added off the tee in recent years, he’s plenty long enough for Oak Hill, too.
Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Tommy Fleetwood (+400)
- Max Homa (+275)
- Tony Finau (+220)
PGA Championship – Top-20 picks
Tommy Fleetwood (+180)
In his last 5 major starts, Fleetwood has finished in the top 20 three times. He tied for 5th at the PGA last year and 4th at the Open Championship before playing relatively well at the Masters last month (T-33). His irons will give him an advantage on this course, which requires accuracy into the greens because missing in the rough will lead to difficult up-and-downs.
Adam Scott (+220)
Scott has notched a top-20 finish in 25 major starts since 2011, with 2 of those coming last year in the U.S. Open and Open Championship. He’s a great pick in the majors, even if his only win came in 2013. His last 2 starts this season were a T-5 at the Wells Fargo Championship and a T-7 at last week’s AT&T Byron Nelson, so he’s got some momentum.
Sahith Theegala (+225)
Theegala lacks major championship experience, only playing 4 of them in his career. However, in his last 2 major starts, he tied for 34th and finished 9th at the Open last year and the Masters this season. He’s played well in designated events this season, which are like mini-majors, so the stage isn’t too big for him.
Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Tom Hoge (+450)
- Gary Woodland (+280)
- Talor Gooch (+210)
PGA Championship – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Jason Day (-105) vs. Justin Thomas (-120)
I’ll fade the defending champion with just 2 top-10s this season in favor of a guy fresh off a win in Texas and 7 total top-10s. Day bounced back really well from a missed cut at the Wells Fargo Championship and I expect that momentum to continue this week.
Xander Schauffele (+120) vs. Rory McIlroy (-135)
Fade McIlroy on a long, potentially soft course in a major championship? It’s not always the best idea, but Rory is in a little bit of a slump right now and Schauffele is, well, not. Schauffele hasn’t finished worse than T-10 in his last 4 starts and has 3 top-5s in that span.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+100) vs. Sungjae Im (-125)
It’s mildly surprising to see Fitzpatrick as the underdog against Im. Fitzpatrick is a player who tends to play well in tough conditions, while Im thrives when birdies are easier to come by. This week will be about bogey avoidance and making par, which is why I like Fitzpatrick at even money.
PGA Championship – Top South American
Joaquin Niemann (+125)
There are only 4 South American players in the field this week: Niemann, Mito Pereira (+200), Emiliano Grillo (+350) and Nico Echavarria (+800). Pereira and Grillo are both contenders to finish as the top South American, but I like the way Niemann is trending and his game fits Oak Hill well. He won at Riviera before and will need to be similarly accurate into these narrow fairways. He finished 10th and 9th in his last 2 LIV starts.
PGA Championship – Top LIV golfer
Brooks Koepka (+333)
I expect Koepka to have a solid week in Rochester, just as he did at the Masters. There’s a lot of competition among LIV golfers this week, from Koepka down to Patrick Reed and Gooch, but Brooks has the major prowess that many others don’t. Whether he actually wins is a different story, but I can see another top-5 coming.
PGA Championship – First-round leader
Jon Rahm (+1800)
With Rahm’s odds so short across the board, playing him to lead after Round 1 is a good way to get some value. He leads the PGA Tour in 1st-round scoring average at 67.55, so he often comes out firing with low scores on Thursdays. And it doesn’t matter much whether he’s in the morning or afternoon wave in Round 1. He plays well in either slot.
Cameron Young (+4000)
Young hasn’t been able to put it all together for a PGA Tour victory yet, but he’s a player with a ton of firepower to go low in 1 round – as he’s frequently done. It only takes 1 good round for this bet to cash and if Young can get some soft conditions, his length will be an even greater advantage.
More expert prop bet predictions
Group A winner: Xander Schauffele (+500)
Schauffele is in the betting group with the top players in the field, led by Scheffler at +220 and Rahm at +260. McIlroy (+400) and Cantlay (+550) are also listed in this group, making Schauffele the 4th-favorite. I’ll take my chances at +500 on a player who has a real shot to win outright. All he has to do here is beat 4 other players.
Winning margin: 2 strokes (+350)
From 2017-21, the winning margin in the PGA Championship was 2 strokes each year. That’s 5 straight years with that winning margin before Thomas beat Will Zalatoris in a playoff last year. Oak Hill should keep scores on the higher side, but I think 1 player will build a little bit of a cushion and win by a pair of shots.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Golfweek:
- Justin Thomas filled the Wanamaker Trophy with beers after winning last year. Can he do it again at the 2023 PGA Championship?
- 2023 PGA Championship: TaylorMade’s commemorative gear for Oak Hill
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