Tag: PGA Tour best bets PGA Tour odds PGA Tour betting

2023 Memorial Tournament odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the golf odds to win the 2023 Memorial Tournament, with PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

It’s once again a strong field teeing it up this year at the 2023 Memorial Tournament, led by the top 2 players in the world, Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm. Muirfield Village plays host to this great event, which many players use as a tune-up before the U.S. Open.

Below, we look at the 2023 Memorial Tournament odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Scheffler edges out Rahm as the favorite this week, coming in with +600 odds compared to Rahm’s +750. Patrick Cantlay and Rory McIlroy are  next at +1000, with the former being a 2-time champion in the last 4 years. Billy Horschel is the defending champion but he has long odds at +8000.

Muirfield Village, designed by Jack Nicklaus, is a staple of the PGA Tour schedule. It’s a difficult course that penalizes players for missing the fairways thanks to its thick rough, while bunkers protect the greens and make par saves difficult when missing the putting surface. It’s a par 72 and plays at 7,533 yards after being lengthened a bit 2 years ago.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

WATCH: PGA Tour is live on ESPN+! Get ESPN+

Memorial Tournament – Expert picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 10:55 a.m. ET.

Patrick Cantlay (+1000)

Cantlay has won this tournament twice in the last 4 years and he’s also added 2 other top-5 finishes at this event since 2018. He’s got the best track record at Muirfield of any player in the field, and even at +1000, he’s worth betting to win again this week. He hasn’t finished worse than T-21 in a single start since missing the cut at the Waste Management Phoenix Open in February.

Jason Day (+3000)

Day is a member at Muirfield Village, but that doesn’t mean he plays it regularly. He said last year that he only played 9 holes in the previous 2 years despite living just 30 minutes from the course. At the very least, playing here will let Day be close to home, which is a little bit of an advantage. He tied for 4th in 2020 and came in 31st last year, playing well at this course in the past. Though he missed the cut at the PGA Championship, he won the AT&T Byron Nelson the week prior.

Memorial Tournament picks – Contenders

Rickie Fowler (+4000)

Fowler loves this place. In his last 6 starts here since 2017, he’s gone T-2, T-8, T-14, MC, T-11 and T-64 last year. That’s 4 top-15 finishes in the last 6 years, which is an impressive streak at a course that can play so difficult. He bounced back from a MC at the PGA Championship by finishing T-6 at the Charles Schwab Challenge last week, so I like the way he’s trending heading into this week.

Shane Lowry (+4500)

Lowry tied for 12th at the PGA Championship before taking last week off, but he’s back in the field in an event where he tied for 6th in 2021 and 32nd last year. He has the ball-striking prowess to go low on this course, which emphasizes the importance of accurate approach shots into firm greens.

Tom Kim (+5500)

Kim is making his debut at this event, which is something he does often on tour, being such a young player. That hasn’t bothered him in the past and though he’s not the longest hitter, his driving distance won’t hinder him too much this week because it’s not a course that bombers can really overpower. He’s finished in the top 25 in nearly half of his starts this season (8 of 17).

Memorial Tournament picks – Long shot(s)

Justin Suh (+12500)

Suh continues to play some good golf, adding another top 20 at Colonial last week – his 6th top-25 of the season. The only time he’s played the Memorial was in 2019 when he missed the cut, but that’s not something to worry too much about because he’s a significantly better player now than he was as a rookie.

Keith Mitchell (+10000)

Since 2019, Mitchell has played the Memorial 3 times and has finished T-48, T-22 and T-18 – which are pretty good results, especially considering he’s improved his finish each year. He’s struggled a bit recently, with back-to-back finishes outside the top 50, but he could get back on track at Muirfield.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Golfweek:

Follow @camdasilva on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1364]

2023 Charles Schwab Challenge prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

Following Brooks Koepka’s win at the PGA Championship, the next stop on the tour’s schedule is the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge in Fort Worth, Texas. Colonial Country Club will once again host this event, which features big names such as Scottie Scheffler and Jordan Spieth.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite (+400) to win this week, just as he was at the AT&T Byron Nelson a few weeks ago, but Spieth – a fellow Texas native – has performed extremely well in this event, finishing in the top 10 in 7 of the last 8 years. Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland will also be in the field, as will defending champion Sam Burns.

Colonial Country Club won’t present the same challenges that Oak Hill did last week, but it’s by no means an easy course. At 7,209 yards, it’s not an extremely long course, emphasizing accuracy and positioning over distance off the tee. It’ll play as a par 70 with trees lining the fairways, requiring players to be accurate in order to avoid trouble off the tee. The winning score last year was 9-under after it ranged from 12-under to 20-under in the previous seven years. In fact, the winning score has been 10-under or better in 18 of the last 20 years.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

WATCH: PGA Tour is live on ESPN+! Get ESPN+

Charles Schwab Challenge – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 10:54 a.m. ET.

Jordan Spieth (+275)

Spieth mitigated concerns about his wrist last week when he finished all 4 rounds at the PGA Championship, even if he didn’t have his best stuff. That gives me enough confidence to go with him in an event he absolutely owns. In the last 8 years at the Charles Schwab Challenge, he’s had 4 top-5 finishes and 7 top-10s. His top-5 odds are somewhat short at +275, but they’re still worth playing.

Tony Finau (+275)

Like Spieth, Finau is also a horse for this course. He’s played this tournament in 7 of the last 8 years and finished in the top 5 twice with nothing worse than a 34th-place finish. Finau had his share of struggles at Oak Hill, but Colonial will feel like a walk in the park compared to the challenge he endured last week.

Sungjae Im (+350)

Im is a wild card at Colonial. He’s played this event the last 4 years, alternating missed cuts with a T-10 and T-15 in that span. His odds this week were probably lengthened due to his MC last week so you’re getting him at a decent number now. With his ball-striking and wedge work around the greens, he’s a good bet to win or at least finish in the top 5.

Charles Schwab Challenge – Top-10 picks

Russell Henley (+320)

Henley is the most accurate driver on tour, hitting the fairway 73.56% of the time. That will be an advantage this week, given the importance of not getting out of position when setting up your second shot into the greens. He’s also a premier iron player and hits a lot of greens, so he’ll have plenty of looks for birdie.

Collin Morikawa (+140)

Morikawa tied for 26th at the PGA Championship, which is a disappointing result by his standards. However, he was pretty solid all-around and he now comes to a course where ball-striking and iron play will be essential. If the putter can be even slightly above-average, he’ll be in contention on Sunday because he’s going to hit a lot of greens this week.

Cam Davis (+320)

Davis finished 7th here last year and is fresh off a T-4 at the PGA Championship, continuing some great play since returning from an illness that hampered him early in the season. In his last 6 starts, he has 3 top-10s. I love his odds for another top-10 at +320.

Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Justin Rose (+220)

Charles Schwab Challenge – Top-20 picks

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+250)

Bezuidenhout is usually a decent putter but he was abysmal at Oak Hill, ranking 3rd-worst in the field in strokes gained: putting last week. He was excellent from tee-to-green, finishing 10th in that category at the PGA Championship. I’ll bet his putting bounces back at Colonial.

Brian Harman (+200)

Harman has struggled as of late, missing the cut in 4 of his last 5 stroke-play starts. However, the one time he did make the cut, he finished T-7 at the RBC Heritage. Now might be a good time to buy low at an event where he has 3 top-10s and 7 top-31 finishes in the last 8 years. He seems to love this course and his top-20 odds should probably be shorter, all things considered.

Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Justin Suh (+350)
  • Brendon Todd (+200)

Charles Schwab Challenge – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Stephan Jaeger (+100) vs. Denny McCarthy (-125)

Jaeger fell apart a little bit on Sunday at the PGA Championship, shooting 6-over to finish T-50. But he’s been a stud recently, finishing T-18, T-27 and T-11 in his previous 3 starts. I’ll take him at even money against McCarthy, who has missed the cut twice here.

Brendon Todd (-125) vs. J.T. Poston (+100)

Todd isn’t a great pick on longer courses, but on a pick-and-plot course like Colonial, he makes sense. He finished 3rd and 8th in this event the last 2 years and is worth betting at -125 against Poston, who has missed the cut here in 3 of the last 4 years.

Justin Rose (+100) vs. Tommy Fleetwood (-125)

Rose shot 1-over on Sunday at the PGA Championship, but he still managed to finish in the top 10 – even after struggling mightily with his driver early in the week. He won this event in 2018 and finished 3rd in 2020, also notching a top-20 in 2021. I like Fleetwood’s chances this week, too, but Rose is the better value here.

Charles Schwab Challenge – Top South African

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+125)

Garrick Higgo at +275 is the second-favorite to be the top South African but I prefer Bezuidenhout, even at +125. Higgo missed the cut here in his debut last year, and the other South Africans in the field don’t pose as big a threat to Bezuidenhout’s chances.

Charles Schwab Challenge – Top Asian

Sungjae Im (+150)

Si Woo Kim (+300) and Byeong Hun An (+500) have the 2nd- and 3rd-best odds to finish as the top Asian player this week, but it’s really hard not to like Im with his iron play and work around the greens. Even after shooting 80 at the PGA last Thursday, Im is set up well for a high finish this week.

Charles Schwab Challenge – First-round leader

Scottie Scheffler (+1100)

One of my favorite ways to play the heavy favorites is by betting them to finish as the 1st-round leader. Dead heat rules lessen the reward, but at +1100, Scheffler offers good value to be atop the board on Thursday night. He was among the 8 players who shot 66 in the 1st round last year, which was the low round of the day.

Cam Davis (+5000)

Along with Scheffler, Davis also shot 66 in the opening round last year. He’s also fresh off a 5-under 65 in the final round of the PGA Championship, so perhaps he can carry over some of that momentum into this week’s 1st round.

More expert prop bet predictions

Group B winner: Justin Rose (+375)

Max Homa is the favorite in this group at +300, followed by Tommy Fleetwood (+333), Sam Burns (+375) and Rickie Fowler (+400). Rose finished better than all of them at the PGA Championship and now comes to an event where he’s won and had 2 top-5s in the last 5 years. I like him at these odds.

Will there be a playoff? Yes: (+350)

There’s been a playoff in 2 of the last 3 years at this event, with those being won by Burns and Daniel Berger. Let’s bet for another playoff in what’s a pretty strong field at Colonial.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Golfweek:

Follow @camdasilva on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1364]

2023 Charles Schwab Challenge odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the golf odds to win the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge, with PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

This week doesn’t feature a post-major designated event like the RBC Heritage was the week after the Masters, but the stars will still be out at the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. The 1st round will begin on Thursday morning.

Below, we look at the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Coming out of PGA Championship week, runner-up Scottie Scheffler will tee it up again at Colonial as the heavy favorite. He’s +400 to win this week, by far the shortest odds of anyone in the field. Sam Burns (+2800) will try to defend his title after winning here a year ago, going up against Scheffler, Viktor Hovland,  Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau and Collin Morikawa. PGA Championship sensation Michael Block received an invitation, too, after finishing 15th on Sunday.

Colonial is a par 70 and plays at 7,209 yards and this is the 78th time it’s hosting a PGA Tour event. It’s not a very long course and bombers off the tee won’t have a considerable advantage, which makes this a 2nd-shot course with an emphasis on iron play and positioning. Burns won at 9-under par last year, beating Scheffler in a playoff.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

WATCH: PGA Tour is live on ESPN+! Get ESPN+

Charles Schwab Challenge – Expert picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 2:53 p.m. ET.

Tony Finau (+1600)

So much of Colonial CC comes down to positioning and accuracy into the greens. Finau may not be viewed as an accurate driver of the golf ball but he’s deadly with his irons, ranking 5th in strokes gained: approach this season. It’s how he’s notched 4 straight top-25 finishes in this event, including a tie for 4th last year and 2nd in 2019. Ignore his struggles at the PGA Championship last week. This is a course he excels on.

Russell Henley (+4000)

Henley missed the cut at the PGA Championship but he ranked 8th in SG: approach. It was his putter that let him down. With this being a course where accuracy is more important than length, Henley is a good fit, ranking 1st in fairway percentage this season – by a wide margin: 73.56% vs. 70.35% for the No. 2 player. He’s also a great iron player and before his MC at the PGA, he had 3 straight top-20s, including a T-4 at the Masters.

Sungjae Im (+2200)

Im’s odds this week were certainly hurt by his dreadful showing at the PGA Championship where he shot 80 in the 1st round and 73 in Round 2. That didn’t seem like a course that fit his game, requiring length off the tee, which he doesn’t have much of. Colonial is perfect for Im, who can plot his way around a course and make birdies. He tied for 15th here last year and 10th in 2020.

Charles Schwab Challenge picks – Contenders

Cam Davis (+4500)

Davis’ stock is on the rise after tying for 4th at the PGA thanks to a final-round 65, and only 3 players in the field gained more strokes tee-to-green than Davis: Scheffler, Brooks Koepka and Hovland. He tied for 7th here last year so it’s not as if his length was a disadvantage for him a year ago. He has 3 top-10s in his last 6 starts this season.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+6000)

Bezuidenhout didn’t make the cut last week but he did finish 10th in SG: tee-to-green. The 9 players ahead of him all finished top-30, with 7 of them finishing in the top 10. It was just a terrible week of putting for Bezuidenhout, who lost 2.23 strokes to the field on the greens – 3rd-worst in the field. He tied for 15th here last year.

Brendon Todd (+6600)

Todd is an accuracy specialist off the tee, which makes him a good fit for Colonial. He finished 8th in 2021 and 3rd last year so his track record at this event, as limited as it is, is strong. Before missing the cut at the PGA Championship, he tied for 8th at the Wells Fargo Championship.

Charles Schwab Challenge picks – Long shots

Justin Suh (+9000)

Suh has been a cut-maker and a sleeper pick so far this season. After missing the cut in his 1st 3 starts, he’s only missed one since. He’s fresh off a T-26 at the PGA Championship, which could’ve been much better if not for a 74 in pristine conditions on Sunday. He didn’t excel in one area last week but he was good all-around, which bodes well at Colonial.

Beau Hossler (+10000)

Hossler went to the University of Texas and played well here last year when he tied for 21st after shooting 66 and 65 in the first 2 rounds. It’s surprising to see his odds so long considering the way he’s played lately, making the cut in 6 straight starts with 2 top-10s, including a 3rd-place finish at the Zurich Classic. He tied for 40th at the PGA Championship last week.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Golfweek:

Follow @camdasilva on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1364]

2023 PGA Championship prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2023 PGA Championship with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

The great Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, N.Y., will host the year’s 2nd major, the 2023 PGA Championship starting Thursday. Jon Rahm is looking to go back-to-back in the majors while Justin Thomas will try to defend his title and keep the Wanamaker Trophy in his grasp.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 PGA Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Rahm is the top-ranked golfer in this week’s Golfweek/Sagarin rankings, maintaining his spot at No. 1. It’s not Scottie Scheffler behind him in the 2nd spot, however. Xander Schauffele is ranked No. 2, followed by Scheffler, Tony Finau and Patrick Cantlay. Last year’s champion, Thomas, is ranked No. 10, behind Rory McIlroy (6), Max Homa (7), Sungjae Im (8) and Cameron Young (9).

The East Course at Oak Hill is hosting a major championship for the 7th time. The last major that was played here was in 2013, also the PGA Championship, which was won by Jason Dufner at 10-under par. The course has undergone a complete renovation since then, with trees being removed, bunkers relocated and holes lengthened. This week, it’ll play at 7,394 yards as a par 70, about 250 yards longer than 2013’s edition of the course.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

WATCH: PGA Tour is live on ESPN+! Get ESPN+

PGA Championship – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 10:41 a.m. ET.

Brooks Koepka (+400)

Say what you will about Koepka being able to close out tournaments, but if you bet him to finish in the top 5, you don’t have to sweat his performance on Sunday as much. In his career, he’s finished in the top 5 of a major an impressive 13 times, including at the Masters this year when he tied for 2nd.

Jon Rahm (+160)

Betting any player to finish top 5 in a major at +160 seems outrageous, but Rahm has an excellent chance to win this tournament. He won the Masters after spotting the field 2 shots on Thursday by doubling his 1st hole. He’s finished in the top 5 of a major 7 times in his career and his short odds to make it 8 are warranted.

Xander Schauffele (+400)

Schauffele might be the best player in the world right now who has never won a major, but he’s come incredibly close before. Since 2020, he’s only missed the cut in 2 majors and his worst finish is a T-26 when he has played the weekend. He has 6 top-5 finishes in his major career and Oak Hill sets up well for his game with how critical approach shots are.

Other T5 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Matt Fitzpatrick (+600)
  • Patrick Cantlay (+350)

PGA Championship – Top-10 picks

Viktor Hovland (+260)

Hovland had never finished in the top 10 of a major before the Open last year, which is shocking. However, in his last 2 major starts, he went T-4 and T-7, showing he can contend in the world’s biggest tournaments. He’s a pure ball-striker who should excel at Oak Hill.

Dustin Johnson (+220)

Johnson is coming off a win at LIV Golf’s event in Tulsa, so he’s in good form. He’s a former U.S. Open champion who’s known to excel on difficult courses, which Oak Hill certainly is. His high ball flight and controlled fades will allow him to hold greens in tough conditions. Plus, he’s got the power to muscle shots out of the heavy rough.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+275)

Fitzpatrick has 3 career top-10s in majors and they have come in his last 4 starts – including last year’s U.S. Open win. He has the game to survive tough conditions and avoid costly bogeys, which will be a major part of this week’s competition. With the length he’s added off the tee in recent years, he’s plenty long enough for Oak Hill, too.

Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Tommy Fleetwood (+400)
  • Max Homa (+275)
  • Tony Finau (+220)

PGA Championship – Top-20 picks

Tommy Fleetwood (+180)

In his last 5 major starts, Fleetwood has finished in the top 20 three times. He tied for 5th at the PGA last year and 4th at the Open Championship before playing relatively well at the Masters last month (T-33). His irons will give him an advantage on this course, which requires accuracy into the greens because missing in the rough will lead to difficult up-and-downs.

Adam Scott (+220)

Scott has notched a top-20 finish in 25 major starts since 2011, with 2 of those coming last year in the U.S. Open and Open Championship. He’s a great pick in the majors, even if his only win came in 2013. His last 2 starts this season were a T-5 at the Wells Fargo Championship and a T-7 at last week’s AT&T Byron Nelson, so he’s got some momentum.

Sahith Theegala (+225)

Theegala lacks major championship experience, only playing 4 of them in his career. However, in his last 2 major starts, he tied for 34th and finished 9th at the Open last year and the Masters this season. He’s played well in designated events this season, which are like mini-majors, so the stage isn’t too big for him.

Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Tom Hoge (+450)
  • Gary Woodland (+280)
  • Talor Gooch (+210)

PGA Championship – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Jason Day (-105) vs. Justin Thomas (-120)

I’ll fade the defending champion with just 2 top-10s this season in favor of a guy fresh off a win in Texas and 7 total top-10s. Day bounced back really well from a missed cut at the Wells Fargo Championship and I expect that momentum to continue this week.

Xander Schauffele (+120) vs. Rory McIlroy (-135)

Fade McIlroy on a long, potentially soft course in a major championship? It’s not always the best idea, but Rory is in a little bit of a slump right now and Schauffele is, well, not. Schauffele hasn’t finished worse than T-10 in his last 4 starts and has 3 top-5s in that span.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+100) vs. Sungjae Im (-125)

It’s mildly surprising to see Fitzpatrick as the underdog against Im. Fitzpatrick is a player who tends to play well in tough conditions, while Im thrives when birdies are easier to come by. This week will be about bogey avoidance and making par, which is why I like Fitzpatrick at even money.

PGA Championship – Top South American

Joaquin Niemann (+125)

There are only 4 South American players in the field this week: Niemann, Mito Pereira (+200), Emiliano Grillo (+350) and Nico Echavarria (+800). Pereira and Grillo are both contenders to finish as the top South American, but I like the way Niemann is trending and his game fits Oak Hill well. He won at Riviera before and will need to be similarly accurate into these narrow fairways. He finished 10th and 9th in his last 2 LIV starts.

PGA Championship – Top LIV golfer

Brooks Koepka (+333)

I expect Koepka to have a solid week in Rochester, just as he did at the Masters. There’s a lot of competition among LIV golfers this week, from Koepka down to Patrick Reed and Gooch, but Brooks has the major prowess that many others don’t. Whether he actually wins is a different story, but I can see another top-5 coming.

PGA Championship – First-round leader

Jon Rahm (+1800)

With Rahm’s odds so short across the board, playing him to lead after Round 1 is a good way to get some value. He leads the PGA Tour in 1st-round scoring average at 67.55, so he often comes out firing with low scores on Thursdays. And it doesn’t matter much whether he’s in the morning or afternoon wave in Round 1. He plays well in either slot.

Cameron Young (+4000)

Young hasn’t been able to put it all together for a PGA Tour victory yet, but he’s a player with a ton of firepower to go low in 1 round – as he’s frequently done. It only takes 1 good round for this bet to cash and if Young can get some soft conditions, his length will be an even greater advantage.

More expert prop bet predictions

Group A winner: Xander Schauffele (+500)

Schauffele is in the betting group with the top players in the field, led by Scheffler at +220 and Rahm at +260. McIlroy (+400) and Cantlay (+550) are also listed in this group, making Schauffele the 4th-favorite. I’ll take my chances at +500 on a player who has a real shot to win outright. All he has to do here is beat 4 other players.

Winning margin: 2 strokes (+350)

From 2017-21, the winning margin in the PGA Championship was 2 strokes each year. That’s 5 straight years with that winning margin before Thomas beat Will Zalatoris in a playoff last year. Oak Hill should keep scores on the higher side, but I think 1 player will build a little bit of a cushion and win by a pair of shots.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Golfweek:

Follow @camdasilva on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1364]

2023 PGA Championship odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the golf odds to win the 2023 PGA Championship, with PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

The 2nd major of the year has arrived. The 2023 PGA Championship will take place this week at historic Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, N.Y., a U.S. Open-style course that will challenge the world’s best golfers. The 1st round of the 105th event begins on Thursday morning and the champion will be crowned on Sunday afternoon.

Below, we look at the 2023 PGA Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler are unsurprisingly the co-favorites to win this week at +750 – the only 2 players with odds shorter than +1200. Rahm is seeking to win his 2nd major of the year after winning the Masters in April, while Scheffler is attempting to bounce back from a missed cut at the PGA Championship last year. Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka, Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay are also among the favorites to win this week.

Players will take on the East Course at Oak Hill, which has been renovated since it last hosted a major in 2013, also the PGA Championship. It underwent a complete restoration in 2019-20, removing a large number of trees and changing the greens to bentgrass after they were previously a mix of bent and Poa annua. Holes were also lengthened, which is why it will play 250 yards longer than it did in 2013. It will now play at 7,394 yards as a par 70, so longer hitters will have an advantage.

The last time Oak Hill hosted a major, Jason Dufner claimed the Wanamaker Trophy in 2013 with a score of 10-under par, 2 clear of runnerup Jim Furyk. This will be the 7th major championship hosted by Oak Hill.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

WATCH: PGA Tour is live on ESPN+! Get ESPN+

PGA Championship – Expert picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 12:49 p.m. ET.

Xander Schauffele (+2000)

Schauffele is going to win a major at some point. It feels almost inevitable. This is a great opportunity for him to finally break through with his 1st major championship, playing a course that favors great ball-strikers. Schauffele ranks 5th in strokes gained: approach and 19th in putting, which allows him to convert greens in regulation into birdies at a high rate; he’s 21st in birdie average this season.

Viktor Hovland (+3000)

Hovland is 29th on tour in total strokes gained, and that’s despite being 136th in strokes gained: putting. So that tells you how well he’s hitting the ball from tee to green, ranking 18th in that department. Though his last 2 starts have been disappointing (T-59 and T-43), he’s having a terrific season with 5 top-10s and 9 top-25s in 13 starts. This could be his week to win his 1st major.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+3300)

Oak Hill is a U.S. Open-style course with narrow fairways, thick rough and difficult greens to hit. The reigning U.S. Open champion is Fitzpatrick, who tied for 10th at the Masters last month before winning the RBC Heritage in a playoff with Jordan Spieth. If his back injury is a non-issue, he should be in for a good week at Oak Hill.

PGA Championship picks – Contenders

Adam Scott (+6600)

After a slow start to the season, Scott has come alive in his last 2 starts by tying for 5th at the Wells Fargo Championship and 8th at the AT&T Byron Nelson last week, bookended by 2 rounds of 63 on Thursday and Sunday. His 142nd ranking in strokes gained: approach doesn’t reflect how good a ball-striker he is, and while his putting can run hot and cold, he’s turned things around recently and was +1.46 in SG: putting last week.

Tommy Fleetwood (+5500)

Fleetwood has to feel good about his game coming into the 2nd major of the year. He just tied for 5th at the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow, which is a long and difficult course. A few weeks before that, he tied for 15th at the RBC Heritage. He’s always been a terrific ball-striker and this year is no different; he’s 21st in SG: approach and 9th in SG: tee-to-green. He’s worth a shot at +5500 based on the way he’s been playing.

Sahith Theegala (+6600)

Theegala has shown he has the game for the big stage this season. He tied for 4th at Torrey Pines, 6th at the Genesis Invitational, 14th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, 9th at the Masters and 5th at the RBC Heritage. He already has 7 top-10s in 18 events, and many of those came in designated events. Theegala is wild off the tee, ranking 155th in driving accuracy, but if he can manage to keep it in the fairway this week, he can use his short game to make birdies and save pars around the greens.

PGA Championship picks – Long shots

Gary Woodland (+10000)

Woodland just tied for 14th at the Wells Fargo Championship two weeks ago, which was his 6th straight made cut and 4th consecutive top-40 finish. He already played well in the 1st major of the year, tying for 14th at the Masters. He also notched a top-10 with a T-9 at the Genesis Invitational at Riviera, which is a challenging and narrow course. As a former U.S. Open champion, he knows what it takes to win a major.

Keegan Bradley (+10000)

Bradley doesn’t really have a weakness in his game right now, ranking 32nd in strokes gained: total. His putter can hold him back at times, and he’s just 68th in that category this year, but he’s 41st in SG: off the tee and 51st in SG: approach, two key stats this week. With a win and 7 top-25 finishes in 14 starts so far this season, Bradley is quietly having a good year.

Tom Hoge (+17500)

Hoge has always been heralded as an elite iron player, which has continued this season. He’s currently 2nd in strokes gained: approach, ranking 15th in greens in regulation (69.7%). He also hits 64.6% of the fairways, which ranks 28th on tour this year, so he doesn’t often get himself in trouble. Driving accuracy and iron play will be essential this week, making Hoge a worthwhile longshot. He’s made the cut in all 3 of his PGA Championship starts with his best finishing being T-9 last year.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Golfweek:

Follow @camdasilva on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1364]

2023 AT&T Byron Nelson prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

Players will get one last tune-up before the 2nd major of the year, the PGA Championship, by playing in the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch. The 1st round will begin on Thursday morning, with the tournament concluding on Sunday afternoon.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Scottie Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite (+333) to win this week, especially after Jordan Spieth withdrew due to a wrist injury. Tyrrell Hatton (+1200) has the 2nd-best odds to win, followed by Tom Kim (+1400) and Jason Day (+1600). The 2-time defending champion, K.H. Lee, is tied with Hideki Matsuyama for the 5th-best odds at +2200. It’s a weaker field than usual with the PGA Championship coming up next week.

TPC Craig Ranch will host this event for the 3rd time, and it’s among the easier courses on the schedule. Lee won the last 2 years with scores of 26-under par and 25-under par, showing what a birdie fest this tournament has become. TPC Craig Ranch, a par 71, features wide fairways and is 7,414 yards in length after the 12th hole was converted from a par 5 to a par 4 this year.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

WATCH: PGA Tour is live on ESPN+! Get ESPN+

AT&T Byron Nelson – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 12:32 .m. ET.

K.H. Lee (+450)

Lee won this event in each of the last 2 years, and there’s really no reason to believe he won’t find himself in contention again this week against a much weaker field than the ones he beat in 2021 and 2022. Not only is he the 2-time defending champion, but he’s coming off a T-8 finish at the Wells Fargo Championship last week.

Tyrrell Hatton (+260)

Hatton is the 2nd-favorite to win and he comes in after tying for 3rd at the Wells Fargo Championship. He already has 4 top-10s in just 11 starts this season and though he didn’t play this event the  last 2 years, his game travels everywhere.

AT&T Byron Nelson – Top-10 picks

Seamus Power (+270)

Power is one of my favorite picks this week and he’s flying a bit under the radar. He came in 9th and 17th at this tournament the last 2 years and he just finished 18th at the Wells Fargo Championship last week. This is the perfect week for him to notch his 2nd win of the season and 4th top-10.

Matt Kuchar (+220)

Kuchar is heating up ahead of the year’s 2nd major, notching 4 straight top-25 finishes with 2 top-10s, including a top-5 at the Valero Texas Open. He’s a horse for this course after finishing 12th and 17th the last 2 years, looking for his 1st top-10 at TPC Craig Ranch.

Tom Kim (+140)

Kim is making his 1st start here, but being such a young player, teeing it up at new courses is nothing new for the 2-time PGA Tour winner. He’s only missed 2 cuts all season and has finished in the top 25 in more than half of his starts (8 of 15), with 4 top-10 finishes to go along with it. Kim may not be long off the tee but he’s deadly accurate, ranking 2nd on tour in driving accuracy (70.1%).

AT&T Byron Nelson – Top-20 picks

Scott Stallings (+200)

In 2 starts at the AT&T Byron Nelson since 2021, Stallings has finished 25th and 3rd, so he’s played well here in recent years. He also has 2 top-35 finishes in his last 3 starts this season, making the cut 11 times in 15 total starts.

Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Nate Lashley (+333)
  • Justin Suh (+250)

AT&T Byron Nelson – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Tyrrell Hatton (-125) vs. Jason Day (+100)

Day missed the cut at the Wells Fargo Championship last week, which was his 1st start since the Masters. He said he dealt with vertigo last month and though he feels better now, his game may not be in peak form at the moment. Hatton, on the other hand, is trending upward.

Seamus Power (-110) vs. Si Woo Kim (-110)

Kim missed the cut here last year and finished 55th the year prior, so he lacks a strong track record at this event, which isn’t the case with Power, who already has 2 top-20 finishes here, including a 9th-place in 2021.

AT&T Byron Nelson – Top Australian

Adam Scott (+250)

Scott is the 2nd-favorite to finish as the top Australian, with 9 total players vying for that title. Day is the favorite at +138, with Min Woo Lee being another contender at +350. Lee has never played here and Day’s best finish is a T-51 in 2022, while Scott came in 32nd in his debut last year.

AT&T Byron Nelson – First-round leader

K.H. Lee (+4000)

It’s surprising to see Lee with such long odds to be the 1st-round leader. When he won last year, he opened with a 64 on Thursday, 1 shot better than his opening round of 65 in 2021 when he also won. He loves this course and his scores show it.

Joseph Bramlett (+6600)

Bramlett opened with a 1st-round 64 in 2021, which was just 1 shot off the lead on Thursday. He finished 7th that year and came in 51st here last year. Though he’s not regarded as a top player, he’s 11th on tour in 1st-round scoring this season.

More expert prop bet predictions

Group C winner: Tom Hoge (+350)

Hoge has Aaron Wise (+400), Maverick McNealy (+400), Min Woo Lee (+320) and Taylor Montgomery (+300) in his group this week. Hoge’s best finish at this event is 17th, which came in 2022 and is better than any top finish by the other 4 players in his betting group.

Winning margin: 3 shots (+650)

The winning margin was 3 shots in 2021 when K.H. Lee was crowned the champion at 25-under par. This is a birdie fest at TPC Craig Ranch and with scores expected to be low, it’s worth making a wager on someone to win by 3 shots, especially at +650.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Golfweek:

Follow @camdasilva on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1364]

2023 AT&T Byron Nelson odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the golf odds to win the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, with PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

Editor’s note: This story was published before Jordan Spieth withdrew from the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson Monday with an injury to his left wrist and J.J. Spaun withdrew Tuesday.

Original story below has been updated, including with the latest odds as of Tuesday at 2:34 a.m. ET.

The last stop on the schedule before the 105th PGA Championship next week is the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, which is being played at TPC Craig Ranch for the 3rd time. The 1st round from McKinney, Texas, tees off on Thursday morning.

Below, we look at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Dallas native Scottie Scheffler comes in as the heavy favorite (+326) to win in his home state. Tyrrell Hatton (+1200), Jason Day (+1400), Tom Kim (+1400), Hideki Matsuyama (+2200) and 2-time defending champion K.H. Lee, (+2500) are among a group of players with the shortest odds to win this week. The field is slightly weaker than usual with the season’s 2nd major next week at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, N.Y.

TPC Craig Ranch typically plays as a par 72, but the 12th hole has been converted from a par 5 to a par 4 this year. So the course will now play as a par 71 at 7,414 yards. It features wide fairways, which can favor longer hitters, and typically turns into a birdie fest; Lee won the last 2 years with scores of 26-under par and 25-under.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

WATCH: PGA Tour is live on ESPN+! Get ESPN+

AT&T Byron Nelson – Expert pick

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 2:34 a.m. ET.

Seamus Power (+3300)

Power has put together a solid track record at this course, finishing 17th and 9th in the last 2 years. He bounced back nicely from a missed cut at the RBC Heritage by tying for 18th at the Wells Fargo Championship last week, getting back on track before the year’s 2nd major. This is a tournament he should contend in on Sunday.

AT&T Byron Nelson picks – Contender

Scott Stallings (+6600)

Stallings tied for 25th here last year after finishing T-3 in 2021, proving to have the game to compete at TPC Craig Ranch. Stallings already has 4 top-25 finishes this season and has made the cut in 11 of his 15 starts, so he’s having a decent 2023 season.

AT&T Byron Nelson picks – Long shots

Nate Lashley (+10000)

Lashley was squarely in the mix at the Wells Fargo Championship last week, finishing T-27 despite shooting 71 and 75 in the final 2 rounds after opening with a 68 and 66 on the 1st 2 days. He has a little bit of momentum coming into this tournament where he tied for 17th last year.

Justin Suh (+9000)

Suh didn’t play TPC Craig Ranch at the AT&T Byron Nelson the last 2 years but he’s made 8 consecutive cuts this season, has finished in the top 25 five times and has 2 top-10 finishes, too. He’s been a steady player this season and consistently hangs around, which gives him a chance to win on Sunday.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Golfweek:

Follow @camdasilva on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1364]

2023 Wells Fargo Championship prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

It’s another loaded field this week at the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship, which has returned to Quail Hollow Club after a year at TPC Potomac. This is the latest designated event on the PGA Tour schedule and features some of the biggest names, including Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay and Jordan Spieth. The 1st round begins on Thursday morning from Charlotte, N.C.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Two names missing from this field are Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm, but there’s still plenty of firepower. In addition to McIlroy, Cantlay and Spieth, Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele and Cameron Young are also in the field and among the favorites to win at Quail Hollow this week.

Quail Hollow Club is 7,538 yards and plays as a par-71, often ranking among the toughest courses on tour. It took a year off from hosting the Wells Fargo in 2022 as the course prepared to host the Presidents Cup, but major championships have been held here in the past, including the 2017 PGA Championship (won by Justin Thomas).

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

WATCH: PGA Tour is live on ESPN+! Get ESPN+

Wells Fargo Championship – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 3:11 p.m. ET.

Max Homa (+450)

The defending champ has already won this event here, breaking through back in 2019. He also played really well at Quail Hollow in the Presidents Cup last year, helping lead the Americans to a win. He comes in with 2 top-10s in his last 4 starts and has already won twice this season.

Patrick Cantlay (+260)

Cantlay hasn’t won yet this season, but he has finished in the top 10 in more than half of his starts (6 of 11). Course history isn’t on his side after missing the cut in 2021, but his game translates everywhere and he’s great at avoiding bogeys, a critical stat at this venue.

Sungjae Im (+450)

Im has been on a tear lately, making the cut in 15 of his 16 starts this season with top-20 finishes in each of his last 4 stroke-play events – including two 6th-place finishes and a T-7. He came in 31st here in 2019 but is a legitimate contender this week.

Other T5 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Rickie Fowler (+600)
  • Jason Day (+500)
  • Viktor Hovland (+400)

Wells Fargo Championship – Top-10 picks

Jason Day (+240)

Day is due for a win. He has 11 top-10s in 14 events played this season, along with 6 top-10s. And now he comes to a course where he won in 2018 and finished 9th the year prior in 2017. He should be in contention this week as he seeks his 1st win on tour in 5 years.

Cam Davis (+650)

Davis should have shorter odds than he does this week. He has 2 top-10 finishes in his last 4 starts and finished 26th in the Wells Fargo Championship in 2021. He’s trending up coming into this week’s designated event.

Rickie Fowler (+275)

Fowler’s outright odds of +3300 feel a bit short, but there’s still value to be had with the 2012 champion. In his last 5 starts at Quail Hollow, he’s finished in the top 5 three times, just to show how well he’s played here. He’s a good bet for a top-10.

Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Keith Mitchell (+450)

Wells Fargo Championship – Top-20 picks

Webb Simpson (+400)

In his last Wells Fargo Championship appearances, Simpson has 2 top-25s and 3 top-35 finishes. It hasn’t been the best season for him with 6 missed cuts in 11 events, but he’s close to home in North Carolina and has played well here in the past.

Brian Harman (+240)

Harman has played Quail Hollow 5 times since 2016 and has finished in the top 35 four times. He’s coming off a T-7 at the RBC Heritage a few weeks ago and already has 7 top-25s in 15 starts this season.

Gary Woodland (+220)

Woodland isn’t having a spectacular season by any means, but he’s been a consistent cut-maker and comes to a course where he finished 5th in 2021. He also finished 24th in 2016 and 22nd at the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow.

Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Joel Dahmen (+375)
  • Cam Davis (+300)
  • Jason Day (+110)

Wells Fargo Championship – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Viktor Hovland (-110) vs. Jordan Spieth (-110)

This is a matchup between two guys who rarely play Quail Hollow. Spieth finished 28th at the 2017 PGA Championship and Hovland came in 3rd two years ago at the Wells Fargo Championship, so they’ve both played well here. But I’ll take Hovland and his ball striking, which will be critical on a difficult course where par is often good enough.

Jason Day (-130) vs. Sam Burns (+105)

In the last 5 tournaments held at Quail Hollow, Burns has only played 2 of them and finished 55th with a WD the other year. Day, on the other hand, won here in 2018 and came in 9th in 2017, so he’s thrived here in the past.

Wells Fargo Championship – Top Continental Europe

Viktor Hovland (+110)

Stephan Jaeger (+500) is the 2nd-favorite to be the top continental European this week, which makes Hovland the heavy favorite. He should be. Following a 3rd-place finish in 2021, he clearly has the game to succeed at Quail Hollow.

Wells Fargo Championship – First-round leader

Tommy Fleetwood (+5000)

Fleetwood fired a 1st-round 67 en route to a 14th-place finish at this tournament in 2021. He’s a good iron player and hits greens at a high rate, which will give him birdie looks on a tough course.

Justin Thomas (+3300)

Thomas can’t be happy with the way he’s played this season. However, this could be the event that jumpstarts him heading into the 2nd major. He won here in 2017 at the PGA Championship.

More expert prop bet predictions

Group B winner: Max Homa (+400)

Homa has the longest odds in this group, behind Cameron Young (+300), Collin Morikawa (+350), Hovland (+350) and Im (+375). As much as I like Im and Hovland this week, Homa’s odds are too long to pass up.

Winning margin: 1 shot (+240)

In a loaded field on a difficult course, the scores should be close down the stretch, leading to a dramatic finish. A 1-shot margin is the best way to play this.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Golfweek:

Follow @camdasilva on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1364]

2023 Wells Fargo Championship odds, picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the golf odds to win the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship, with PGA Tour picks, predictions and best bets.

The next designated event on the PGA Tour schedule takes place this week with the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club. Many of the biggest names in the game will be in the field for this event, which has a purse of $20 million. The 1st round begins Thursday morning in Charlotte, N.C.

Below, we look at the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Rory McIlroy headlines this field with Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler taking the week off, but Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth and Tony Finau will all be teeing it up in Charlotte. Defending champion Max Homa is also in the field as there are 8 past champions of this event playing this week.

Quail Hollow didn’t host the Wells Fargo Championship last year because it was preparing to host the Presidents Cup, so the tournament was held at TPC Potomac. Now back at Quail Hollow, McIlroy will be looking to win here again after he claimed the title in 2021. This 7,538-yard par-71 course is among the toughest on tour, ranking as the 5th-hardest in 2021 when it last hosted the Wells Fargo Championship.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

WATCH: PGA Tour is live on ESPN+! Get ESPN+

Wells Fargo Championship – Expert picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 3:34 p.m. ET.

Max Homa (+2200)

Homa also won this event in 2019 and was a star at the 2022 Presidents Cup, which was held at Quail Hollow. He doesn’t have a single weakness in his game and though he missed the cut in his last event at the RBC Heritage, he’s having a fantastic season with 2 wins already.

Jason Day (+2500)

Day was in contention at the Masters until he fell apart on the final few holes in the 2nd round. He’s having a great 2023 season even though he hasn’t won yet, finishing in the top 25 in 11 of his 14 starts this season. His short game, which ranks 19th on tour in strokes gained, makes him a good fit for Quail Hollow.

Patrick Cantlay (+1200)

Cantlay has played 11 events so far this season and has 9 top-25 finishes with 6 top 10s, too. He missed the cut here in 2021, but with this being a difficult course that often comes down to bogey avoidance, he should play well; he ranks 8th on tour in that category.

Wells Fargo Championship picks – Contenders

Gary Woodland (+6600)

Woodland finished 5th at Quail Hollow in 2021 and has made the cut in each of his last 5 starts this season, including 3 top-40s and a top-20 at the Masters. He’s making cuts, but not finishing near the top of leaderboards, but at some point this season, he should break through and this could be the week for the former U.S. Open champ.

Brian Harman (+6600)

Harman has a good track record at Quail Hollow in his last 2 starts, finishing tied for 18th and 24th in 2019 and 2021. At the RBC Heritage last month, he tied for 7th and has 7 top-25 finishes in 15 starts this season.

Wells Fargo Championship picks – Long shots

Joel Dahmen (+12500)

Dahmen has been struggling a bit this season, but he played well at the Zurich Classic with Denny McCarthy, finishing tied for 11th in New Orleans. This course seems to fit his eye, tying for 11th and 18th in his last 2 starts at Quail Hollow for the Wells Fargo Championship.

Cam Davis (+9000)

Davis was battling an illness earlier this season, which caused him to struggle and miss 5 straight cuts. He seems to be past that now, though, and tied for 6th at the Players Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage. In 2021 at the Wells Fargo Championship, he tied for 26th.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Golfweek:

Follow @camdasilva on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1364]

2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

Jon Rahm, the No. 1 player in the world, will look to defend his title at the 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta this week. The 1st round from Nuevo Vallarta, Mexico, will begin on Thursday morning with the champion being crowned on Sunday afternoon.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Rahm remains the No. 1 player in the latest Golfweek/Sagarin rankings. Tony Finau, who ranks 5th on the list, is also in Mexico this week. Wyndham Clark comes in at No. 21 in Golfweek’s rankings and he has the 3rd-best odds of any player to win at Vidanta.

This is only the 2nd year of the Mexico Open as a PGA Tour event, being hosted once again by Vidanta Vallarta. It’s a par 71 and is 7,456 yards long with wide fairways, which gives longer hitters an advantage. The course was designed by Greg Norman and only opened in 2015, so it’s relatively new.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

WATCH: PGA Tour is live on ESPN+! Get ESPN+

Mexico Open at Vidanta – Top-5 pick

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 5:51 p.m. ET.

Tony Finau (+150)

With Rahm being such a heavy favorite and this being a weaker field, there aren’t many players I’m comfortable taking for a top 5. There’s just so much volatility and uncertainty with this field, but Finau is a good bet at +150. He finished 2nd last year and hasn’t finished worse than 31st in his last 4 stroke-play events.

Mexico Open at Vidanta – Top-10 picks

Gary Woodland (+190)

Woodland has finished T-14 and T-31 in his last 2 starts this season, continuing what’s quietly been a solid season for the former U.S. Open champion. He hits it long enough to win here and tied for 24th in this event a year ago, so he should find himself in contention again.

Nicolai Hojgaard (+250)

Hojgaard has 5 top-40 finishes (including 2 top-10s) in his last 5 starts worldwide and is playing at a very high level coming into the Mexico Open. He didn’t play this event last year, so he doesn’t have any course experience, but he has the game to win here.

Brandon Wu (+400)

Like Finau, Wu tied for 2nd in this tournament last year so he played well at Vidanta and nearly won the whole thing as a long shot. His recent form hasn’t been great, missing 2 of his last 3 cuts, but prior to that, he notched 2 top-20 finishes at the Honda Classic and Players Championship.

Mexico Open at Vidanta – Top-20 picks

David Lipsky (+260)

Lipsky isn’t playing great right now, finishing in the top 60 only once in his last 5 starts. However, he tied for 6th in this tournament a year ago and he partnered up with Aaron Rai to finish 13th at the Zurich Classic last week.

Lanto Griffin (+260)

Griffin tied for 15th at the Valero Texas Open before missing the cut at the RBC Heritage. He tied for 15th in the Mexico Open last year, fitting well on this course. In a weaker field, I could see him notching another top 20 at this tournament.

Akshay Bhatia (+333)

Bhatia ranks 28th in strokes gained: approach and 22nd in birdie average, showing he’s hitting a good number of his approaches close and converting birdies at a high rate. The winning score was 17-under last year so birdies are available, making Bhatia a worthwhile long shot.

Mexico Open at Vidanta – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Gary Woodland (-125) vs. Byeong-Hun An (+100)

There aren’t a whole lot of matchup options available this week but Woodland against An is enticing. An tied for 6th at the Valero Texas Open but he didn’t play this course last year, which gives Woodland, who tied for 24th, a slight edge in the experience department.

Mexico Open at Vidanta – Top European

Jon Rahm (-125)

Rahm’s lines are all juiced this week but one way to bet him is to be the top European. His odds are longer this way than they are for a top-5 (-175), which makes this a better value. Hojgaard is the next favorite at +750, followed by Alex Noren at +1100. I expect Rahm to beat all of the Europeans in the field.

Mexico Open at Vidanta – Top English

Matt Wallace (+275)

Wallace has been up and down this season, going T-7, 1st and T-28 in three straight starts before missing cuts in back-to-back events. He has the 2nd-best odds to be the top English player this week, behind only Aaron Rai (+175), but I definitely like his chances.

Mexico Open at Vidanta – First-round leader

Jon Rahm (+900)

Rahm has the best 1st-round scoring average on tour this season at 67.6. He’s well-rested after skipping the Zurich Classic last week and should come out firing at a course he won on last year.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Golfweek:

Follow @camdasilva on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1364]