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2024 PGA Championship prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2024 PGA Championship with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

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The best players in the world will be competing for the Wanamaker Trophy this week at the 2024 PGA Championship. The year’s 2nd major is being hosted for the 4th time by Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Ky. First round tees off on Thursday morning.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets from BetMGM Sportsbook among the 2024 PGA Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is the heavy favorite at +450, and he’s also the top-ranked player in the latest Golfweek/Sagarin rankings. Rory McIlroy comes in at No. 2 in the rankings, and he also has the 2nd-shortest odds (+750) to win this week – which would be his 3rd consecutive victory on tour. Brooks Koepka may be ranked 29th in Golfweek’s poll but he has the 3rd-best odds to win (+1400), with fellow LIV Golf member Jon Rahm being 5th (+1800).

Valhalla is a brute of a course, coming in at 7,609 yards as a par 71. The venue was renovated in 2021 in advance of this year’s PGA Championship, which comes 10 years after the last time Valhalla hosted (2014). The overall length of the course is 151 yards longer than it was in 2014, so it should play even tougher than it did then.

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PGA Championship – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 3:15 p.m. ET.

Xander Schauffele (+300)

Schauffele couldn’t close out the Wells Fargo Championship thanks to a final-round 65 by McIlroy, and it once again raises some concerns about his inability to close out big tournaments. He could break through with his 1st major win this week, but taking him for a top-5 is much safer.

Rory McIlroy (+160)

McIlroy is still looking for his 1st major title since the 2014 PGA Championship, which just happened to be played at Valhalla. It’ll take a great week for him to beat everyone in the field, but he should be in the mix on Sunday after winning each of his last 2 starts.

Jon Rahm (+333)

This time last year, Rahm was +800 to win the PGA Championship. That’s not much longer than his odds for a top 5 this week, while his outright odds sit at +1800. There’s no question he’s being discounted because of his move to LIV Golf, as well as his struggles at Augusta, but Rahm is still one of the best players in the world.

PGA Championship – Top-10 picks

Brooks Koepka (+150)

Koepka may have flopped at the Masters, but he’s played well since then, even winning a LIV event in the last month. He should have a much better showing at the PGA Championship, an event he’s already won 3 times, including last year at Oak Hill. He’s a great fit for any difficult course like Valhalla because of the way he avoids costly mistakes and scrambles to save par.

Ludvig Aberg (+160)

If Aberg can notch a top 5 in his Masters debut, he can come in the top 10 at the PGA Championship. He’s deadly accurate off the tee while still hitting it plenty long for a course with as much length as Valhalla, and his putter was excellent at Augusta throughout the week.

Cameron Young (+350)

Young has 5 top-10 finkshes in his last 8 major starts, which includes a T-3 at the 2022 PGA Championship. He still hasn’t won on the PGA Tour, but he’s come close several times and this week could be another near-win for Young. He’s at his best when playing difficult courses that don’t turn into birdie fests. Valhalla won’t yield very low scores so Young should be able to hang around.

Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

Max Homa (+275)

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PGA Championship – Top-20 picks

Will Zalatoris (+225)

Zalatoris at +225 for a top-20 finish feels like a fantastic value. He’s finished in the top 10 in 4 of his last 5 starts in the PGA Championship or U.S. Open, with the only exception being a missed cut at the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines. Valhalla is a ball striker’s course and Zalatoris has the length and accuracy to contend on Sunday.

Cameron Smith (+175)

Smith will need to keep it in the fairway in order to compete for the Wanamaker Trophy because if he starts spraying it off the tee, even his short-game prowess won’t be able to overcome it. That being said, he’s an outstanding putter and chipper so anytime he does miss the green, he’ll have a chance to save par.

Corey Conners (+275)

Conners finished 17th at Kiawah in 2021, missed the cut in the 2022 PGA and came in 12th last year at Oak Hill, so he’s had some success in this major championship before. His iron play will give him a fighting chance at Valhalla, even if his putter stays cold.

Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

Akshay Bhatia (+375)
Alex Noren (+320)
Jason Day (+200)

PGA Championship – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Cameron Smith (+115) vs. Joaquin Niemann (-150)

Niemann might have the higher floor, but Smith absolutely has the higher ceiling this week. For that reason, Smith is the better pick at plus money against Niemann, who’s never finished better than 23rd in a U.S. Open or PGA Championship.

Jason Day (-110) vs. Sungjae Im (-110)

Im has been up and down all year and though he’s shown signs of life in his last 2 starts at the RBC Heritage and Wells Fargo, he’s just not a great fit for U.S. Open/PGA Championship-style courses. Day, on the other hand, has won a PGA Championship.

Sahith Theegala (-120) vs. Sam Burns (-105)

Theegala is a legitimate contender this week as he looks to take his career to the next level, showing the creativity around the greens to save par when he misses with an approach.

PGA Championship – Top Japanese

Hideki Matsuyama (+100)

Assuming his back is fine, Matsuyama shouldn’t have much trouble cashing this bet. There are only 3 other Japanese players in the field, none with better odds than +350; Keita Nakajima is the 2nd-favorite behind Matsuyama. It’s surprising this line is only even money.

PGA Championship – Top Debutant

Ludvig Aberg (+300)

Aberg was the top debutant at the Masters and he’s the favorite to be the same at the PGA this week. He just has a complete skill set to perform well at any course. Theegala is the 2nd-favorite to be the top debutant at +900, with Stephan Jaeger, Akshay Bhatia and Jake Knapp also lurking.

PGA Championship – First-round leader

Xander Schauffele (+2800)

Schauffele was the 1st-round leader last week at Quail Hollow with a blistering score of 64, and he now ranks 6th in 1st-round scoring average this season. If you have concerns about his ability to close at a major, take him to be the 1st-round leader at an even better number than his outright odds.

Alex Noren (+9000, +700 for top 10)

Back to Noren we go with this 1st-round wager. He’s fired rounds of 64 and 67 on Thursday in his last 2 starts and has the 3rd-best 1st-round scoring average on tour. He’s been in the top 10 after Round 1 in each of the last 2 tournaments so that’s another way to play this.

More expert prop bet predictions

Group D winner: Will Zalatoris (+450)

Zalatoris is grouped with Tyrrell Hatton (+275), Matsuyama (+350), Day (+350) and Im (+400), yet he has the longest odds of the 5. He has a better track record at the PGA Championship than any of those players in the last 3 years.

Koepka and Schauffele both to finish in top 10 (+900)

Koepka loves the PGA Championship and Schauffele is on a heater with 7 top-10s in his last 10 starts. At +900, it’s worth playing because they’re 2 serious contenders to hoist the trophy on Sunday.

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2023 PGA Championship prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2023 PGA Championship with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

The great Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, N.Y., will host the year’s 2nd major, the 2023 PGA Championship starting Thursday. Jon Rahm is looking to go back-to-back in the majors while Justin Thomas will try to defend his title and keep the Wanamaker Trophy in his grasp.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 PGA Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Rahm is the top-ranked golfer in this week’s Golfweek/Sagarin rankings, maintaining his spot at No. 1. It’s not Scottie Scheffler behind him in the 2nd spot, however. Xander Schauffele is ranked No. 2, followed by Scheffler, Tony Finau and Patrick Cantlay. Last year’s champion, Thomas, is ranked No. 10, behind Rory McIlroy (6), Max Homa (7), Sungjae Im (8) and Cameron Young (9).

The East Course at Oak Hill is hosting a major championship for the 7th time. The last major that was played here was in 2013, also the PGA Championship, which was won by Jason Dufner at 10-under par. The course has undergone a complete renovation since then, with trees being removed, bunkers relocated and holes lengthened. This week, it’ll play at 7,394 yards as a par 70, about 250 yards longer than 2013’s edition of the course.

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PGA Championship – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 10:41 a.m. ET.

Brooks Koepka (+400)

Say what you will about Koepka being able to close out tournaments, but if you bet him to finish in the top 5, you don’t have to sweat his performance on Sunday as much. In his career, he’s finished in the top 5 of a major an impressive 13 times, including at the Masters this year when he tied for 2nd.

Jon Rahm (+160)

Betting any player to finish top 5 in a major at +160 seems outrageous, but Rahm has an excellent chance to win this tournament. He won the Masters after spotting the field 2 shots on Thursday by doubling his 1st hole. He’s finished in the top 5 of a major 7 times in his career and his short odds to make it 8 are warranted.

Xander Schauffele (+400)

Schauffele might be the best player in the world right now who has never won a major, but he’s come incredibly close before. Since 2020, he’s only missed the cut in 2 majors and his worst finish is a T-26 when he has played the weekend. He has 6 top-5 finishes in his major career and Oak Hill sets up well for his game with how critical approach shots are.

Other T5 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

Matt Fitzpatrick (+600)
Patrick Cantlay (+350)

PGA Championship – Top-10 picks

Viktor Hovland (+260)

Hovland had never finished in the top 10 of a major before the Open last year, which is shocking. However, in his last 2 major starts, he went T-4 and T-7, showing he can contend in the world’s biggest tournaments. He’s a pure ball-striker who should excel at Oak Hill.

Dustin Johnson (+220)

Johnson is coming off a win at LIV Golf’s event in Tulsa, so he’s in good form. He’s a former U.S. Open champion who’s known to excel on difficult courses, which Oak Hill certainly is. His high ball flight and controlled fades will allow him to hold greens in tough conditions. Plus, he’s got the power to muscle shots out of the heavy rough.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+275)

Fitzpatrick has 3 career top-10s in majors and they have come in his last 4 starts – including last year’s U.S. Open win. He has the game to survive tough conditions and avoid costly bogeys, which will be a major part of this week’s competition. With the length he’s added off the tee in recent years, he’s plenty long enough for Oak Hill, too.

Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

Tommy Fleetwood (+400)
Max Homa (+275)
Tony Finau (+220)

PGA Championship – Top-20 picks

Tommy Fleetwood (+180)

In his last 5 major starts, Fleetwood has finished in the top 20 three times. He tied for 5th at the PGA last year and 4th at the Open Championship before playing relatively well at the Masters last month (T-33). His irons will give him an advantage on this course, which requires accuracy into the greens because missing in the rough will lead to difficult up-and-downs.

Adam Scott (+220)

Scott has notched a top-20 finish in 25 major starts since 2011, with 2 of those coming last year in the U.S. Open and Open Championship. He’s a great pick in the majors, even if his only win came in 2013. His last 2 starts this season were a T-5 at the Wells Fargo Championship and a T-7 at last week’s AT&T Byron Nelson, so he’s got some momentum.

Sahith Theegala (+225)

Theegala lacks major championship experience, only playing 4 of them in his career. However, in his last 2 major starts, he tied for 34th and finished 9th at the Open last year and the Masters this season. He’s played well in designated events this season, which are like mini-majors, so the stage isn’t too big for him.

Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

Tom Hoge (+450)
Gary Woodland (+280)
Talor Gooch (+210)

PGA Championship – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Jason Day (-105) vs. Justin Thomas (-120)

I’ll fade the defending champion with just 2 top-10s this season in favor of a guy fresh off a win in Texas and 7 total top-10s. Day bounced back really well from a missed cut at the Wells Fargo Championship and I expect that momentum to continue this week.

Xander Schauffele (+120) vs. Rory McIlroy (-135)

Fade McIlroy on a long, potentially soft course in a major championship? It’s not always the best idea, but Rory is in a little bit of a slump right now and Schauffele is, well, not. Schauffele hasn’t finished worse than T-10 in his last 4 starts and has 3 top-5s in that span.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+100) vs. Sungjae Im (-125)

It’s mildly surprising to see Fitzpatrick as the underdog against Im. Fitzpatrick is a player who tends to play well in tough conditions, while Im thrives when birdies are easier to come by. This week will be about bogey avoidance and making par, which is why I like Fitzpatrick at even money.

PGA Championship – Top South American

Joaquin Niemann (+125)

There are only 4 South American players in the field this week: Niemann, Mito Pereira (+200), Emiliano Grillo (+350) and Nico Echavarria (+800). Pereira and Grillo are both contenders to finish as the top South American, but I like the way Niemann is trending and his game fits Oak Hill well. He won at Riviera before and will need to be similarly accurate into these narrow fairways. He finished 10th and 9th in his last 2 LIV starts.

PGA Championship – Top LIV golfer

Brooks Koepka (+333)

I expect Koepka to have a solid week in Rochester, just as he did at the Masters. There’s a lot of competition among LIV golfers this week, from Koepka down to Patrick Reed and Gooch, but Brooks has the major prowess that many others don’t. Whether he actually wins is a different story, but I can see another top-5 coming.

PGA Championship – First-round leader

Jon Rahm (+1800)

With Rahm’s odds so short across the board, playing him to lead after Round 1 is a good way to get some value. He leads the PGA Tour in 1st-round scoring average at 67.55, so he often comes out firing with low scores on Thursdays. And it doesn’t matter much whether he’s in the morning or afternoon wave in Round 1. He plays well in either slot.

Cameron Young (+4000)

Young hasn’t been able to put it all together for a PGA Tour victory yet, but he’s a player with a ton of firepower to go low in 1 round – as he’s frequently done. It only takes 1 good round for this bet to cash and if Young can get some soft conditions, his length will be an even greater advantage.

More expert prop bet predictions

Group A winner: Xander Schauffele (+500)

Schauffele is in the betting group with the top players in the field, led by Scheffler at +220 and Rahm at +260. McIlroy (+400) and Cantlay (+550) are also listed in this group, making Schauffele the 4th-favorite. I’ll take my chances at +500 on a player who has a real shot to win outright. All he has to do here is beat 4 other players.

Winning margin: 2 strokes (+350)

From 2017-21, the winning margin in the PGA Championship was 2 strokes each year. That’s 5 straight years with that winning margin before Thomas beat Will Zalatoris in a playoff last year. Oak Hill should keep scores on the higher side, but I think 1 player will build a little bit of a cushion and win by a pair of shots.