Camp Randall Stadium will be jumping Saturday for a Big Ten matchup between the No. 20 Penn State Nittany Lions and No. 15 Wisconsin Badgers in Madison, Wisc., at noon. ET. Below, we look at the Penn State at Wisconsin odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings according to the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Penn State salvaged their 2020 season by winning (and covering) their last four games after dropping their first five. The defense gave up just 17 points per game during the win streak and finished top-30 in yards allowed against both the run and pass.
However, there are questions on offense as third-year QB Sean Clifford took a step back from his promising 2019 campaign. The Nittany Lions are on their third offensive coordinator in three years.
It’s a similar story for Wisconsin, which returns nine starters on an elite defense that allowed just 300 yards per game (fifth-best in the nation) and 17.4 points per game (9th) last year. The offense was brutal and averaged just 25 points per game as the run game yielded an un-Wisconsin-like 3.9 yards per carry (83rd in the country).
Penn State at Wisconsin odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 9 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Penn State +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Wisconsin -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Penn State +5.5 (-112) | Wisconsin -5.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 49.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Penn State at Wisconsin odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Wisconsin 24, Penn State 21
Money line
This should be a tight match between two evenly-matched teams with similar styles of play. Wisconsin holds a slight edge on defense, but Penn State has a bit more firepower on offense.
Home-field advantage might be the deciding factor, so a small-unit play on WISCONSIN (-230) feels like the right move.
Against the spread
We mentioned earlier that Penn State covered their last four games in 2020; we didn’t mention that Wisconsin failed to cover in their last four Big Ten conference games down the stretch.
This spread is too wide for what should be a close game so go with PENN STATE +5.5 (-112) to cover.
Over/Under
The 49.5 line seems inflated in a game featuring two of the conference’s best defenses, particularly in Week One when both offenses will be working out the kinks.
Take the UNDER 49.5 (-105) in what should be an old-fashioned Big Ten slugfest.
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