Alex’s best bet: Penn State at Wisconsin prediction

SportsbookWire.com’s Alex White likes a side in Saturday’s Penn State at Wisconsin NCAA football game.

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SportsbookWire.com’s Alex White likes a side in a Saturday showdown in Madison when the Penn State Nittany Lions (6-0, 3-0 Big Ten) visit the Wisconsin Badgers (4-2, 3-1). Kickoff for this conference matchup is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET and will be televised on NBC.

Penn State — No. 3 in the US LBM Coaches Poll — is favored by 6.5 points with the Over/Under line at 47.5, per BetMGM Sportsbook as of Friday, 4:11 p.m. ET.

Penn State leads the all-time series 11-9, including wins in the last 5 contests. The Nittany Lions and Badgers last met in 2021 with Penn State claiming a 16-10 victory as 5.5-point road underdogs. Penn State is 7-1 straight up and against the spread in the last 8 head-to-head meetings, including back-to-back wins at Camp Randall Stadium.

Listen below to why Alex likes a side as her best bet in this one.

Make sure to catch Alex on Sports By the Book Saturday 11 a.m.-noon ET, and Sunday through Wednesday noon-1 p.m. ET, and on Punch Lines every Monday and Wednesday 3 p.m.-4 p.m. ET — live from the South Point Sportsbook in Las Vegas. Follow @alexwhitee on Twitter/X.

– The US LBM Coaches Poll is conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

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Penn State at Wisconsin odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Penn State at Wisconsin odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

Camp Randall Stadium will be jumping Saturday for a Big Ten matchup between the No. 20 Penn State Nittany Lions and No. 15 Wisconsin Badgers in Madison, Wisc., at noon. ET. Below, we look at the Penn State at Wisconsin odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.

Rankings according to the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.

Penn State salvaged their 2020 season by winning (and covering) their last four games after dropping their first five. The defense gave up just 17 points per game during the win streak and finished top-30 in yards allowed against both the run and pass.

However, there are questions on offense as third-year QB Sean Clifford took a step back from his promising 2019 campaign. The Nittany Lions are on their third offensive coordinator in three years.

It’s a similar story for Wisconsin, which returns nine starters on an elite defense that allowed just 300 yards per game (fifth-best in the nation) and 17.4 points per game (9th) last year. The offense was brutal and averaged just 25 points per game as the run game yielded an un-Wisconsin-like 3.9 yards per carry (83rd in the country).

Penn State at Wisconsin odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 9 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Penn State +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Wisconsin -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Penn State +5.5 (-112) | Wisconsin -5.5 (-108)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 49.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Penn State at Wisconsin odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Wisconsin 24, Penn State 21

Money line

This should be a tight match between two evenly-matched teams with similar styles of play. Wisconsin holds a slight edge on defense, but Penn State has a bit more firepower on offense.

Home-field advantage might be the deciding factor, so a small-unit play on WISCONSIN (-230) feels like the right move.

Against the spread

We mentioned earlier that Penn State covered their last four games in 2020; we didn’t mention that Wisconsin failed to cover in their last four Big Ten conference games down the stretch.

This spread is too wide for what should be a close game so go with PENN STATE +5.5 (-112) to cover.

Over/Under

The 49.5 line seems inflated in a game featuring two of the conference’s best defenses, particularly in Week One when both offenses will be working out the kinks.

Take the UNDER 49.5 (-105) in what should be an old-fashioned Big Ten slugfest.

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Week 1 first look: Penn State at Wisconsin odds and lines; Badgers favored in key conference tussle

Previewing the college football Week 1 matchup between Penn State and Wisconsin, with odds, trends and head-to-head records.

The Penn State Nittany Lions and Wisconsin Badgers will lock horns and match wits in a Week 1 contest at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisc. The Lions and Badgers will get things started Saturday at noon ET. Below, we look at the Penn State vs. Wisconsin odds and lines; check back for our college football picks and predictions.

Penn State opened the delayed 2020 season with five straight losses before rallying to win its last four games and go 4-5. The Lions ranked third in Big Ten scoring at 29.8 points per game; they ranked sixth in scoring defense (27.7 PPG). The No. 20 team in the USA TODAY Sports AFCA Coaches Poll brought in Mike Yurcich to take the reins of the offense after he spent last season as offensive coordinator at Texas. Yurcich, returning QB Sean Clifford and company will have their hands full with a Badger defense that held foes under 20 points in 5 of 7 games last season.

Wisconsin is looking to win its sixth straight season opener. The Badgers went 4-3 last fall, holding foes to 17.4 PPG while scoring 25.1 PPG. That latter figure marked the lowest in Paul Chryst‘s six-year tenure at UW. The Badgers are tabbed as the No. 15 team in the preseason coaches’ poll; quality linebacking and defensive backfield play figure to give them an edge in this lid-lifting game against PSU.

Penn State at Wisconsin odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 7:42 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Penn State +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Wisconsin -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Penn State +5.5, -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Wisconsin -5.5, -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Total (Over/Under): 49.5, O: -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | U: -105 (bet $105 to win $100)

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2020 betting stats:

  • ML: Penn State 4-5 | Wisconsin 4-3
  • ATS: Penn State 4-5 | Wisconsin 3-4
  • O/U: Penn State 4-4-1 | Wisconsin 3-4

Penn State at Wisconsin head-to-head

PSU has won four straight and 6-of-7 in this series since 2007. Penn State is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games on the road.

The Badgers are 0-4 ATS in their last four conference games.

The Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings. Penn State holds a 10-9 edge across 19 all-time meetings.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

College sports coverage from USA TODAY Sports Media Group:

Alabama / Auburn / Florida / Georgia / LSU / Michigan / Michigan State / Notre Dame / Ohio State / Oklahoma / Tennessee / Texas / USC / Wisconsin

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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