Penn State’s path to a Big Ten championship is still there, but the Nittany Lions will need some help.
With two weeks remaining in the regular season, there is still a chance Penn State can play for the Big Ten championship. But in addition to taking care of its remaining schedule, Penn State will need some help from around the conference in order to book a trip to Indianapolis to play for the first Big Ten championship in the 18-team era of the conference.
At 6-1 in Big Tne play, Penn State sits in fourth place in the Big Ten standings following the result of Week 12. Oregon essentially clinched its spot in the Big Ten championship game with a defensive victory at Wisconsin on Saturday night. There is a bizarre tiebreaker that could bite Oregon in the end, but that is considered highly unlikely at this stage. That leaves one spot up for grabs between three teams, including Penn State.
And there will be some clarity to the Big Ten championship game situation in Week 13 when the two other teams competing for a spot in Indy, Ohio State and Indiana, square off in the game of the week. Indiana is undefeated this season and Ohio State has just one loss (to Oregon). Indiana owns a one-game lead on Penn State in the standings and Ohio State holds the edge over the Nittany Lions due to a head-to-head victory a couple of weeks ago.
The winner of next weekend’s Ohio State-Indiana will have the inside track to Indianapolis going into the final week of the regular season. Indiana will wither be 11-0 and 8-0 in Big Ten play going into its final game of the regular season against 1-9 Purdue, or Ohio State will go into the final game of the regular season at home against Michigan already owning head-to-head tiebreakers against both Penn State and Indiana.
What are the tiebreakers?
The Big Ten released its conference championship game tiebreakers prior to the start of the season. They are mostly the same as they have been in previous years for division championship tiebreakers.
Here is the exact wording of the tiebreaker procedure for the Big Ten with more than two teams tied this season (this procedure is repeated until the number of tied teams is whittled down to two);
- The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage in games among the tied teams
(a) If all teams involved in the tie did not play each other, but one team defeated all other teams involved in the tie, the team that defeated all other teams in the tie is removed from the tiebreaker, and the remaining teams revert to the beginning of the applicable tiebreaker process (i.e., two team or three or more team tie).
(b) If all teams involved in the tie did not play each other and no team defeated all other teams involved in the tie, move to the next step in tiebreaker.
- The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage against all common conference opponents played by all other teams involved in the tie.
- The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage against the next highest-placed common opponent in the standings in order of finish:
- The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents:
(a) In the event of an unbalanced schedule (i.e., less than nine conference games are played), the records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents, regardless of how many conference opponents each team played. If winning percentage is equal for all conference opponents, move to next step in tiebreaker.
- The representative will be chosen by the by the highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the regular season.
- Random draw among the tied teams conducted by Commissioner or designee.
How does Penn State get into the Big Ten championship game?
The easiest way Penn State gets to Indy is by winning its final two games, Ohio State handing Indiana a loss, and then Ohio State and Indiana each lose their respective regular-season finales for two losses.
So what will it take for Penn State to creep past the Buckeyes and Hoosiers, and are there any tiebreakers that could break Penn State’s way?
First things first, Penn State cannot take another loss. Penn State must win its final two games at Minnesota and at home against Maryland to remain a one-loss team.
Ohio State may be the favorite at this point to get to Indy. The Buckeyes will likely be favored at home against Indiana and against Michigan the following weekend. If Ohio State beats Indiana, the Buckeyes will be sitting pretty when they face the Wolverines. A second Ohio State loss could knock Ohio State out of the mix entirely because catching Indiana will be impossible and Penn State could have just one loss on its record.
Indiana is in a tough spot if it loses to Ohio State this weekend. Indiana would likely need both Penn State and Ohio State to lose the final weekend of the season in order to make the short trip to Indianapolis.
If Penn State can handle its own business starting next week at Minnesota, then fans of the Nittany Lions will be in the awkward position of having to root for Ohio State (against Indiana) and then for Michigan (against Ohio State) in order to see Penn State in a tiebreaker with the Hoosiers.
The fourth tiebreaker is the one that would likely help Penn State over Indiana if it comes down to those two schools.
It’s a longshot for Penn State, sure. But there is still a path to the Big Ten championship game. Just root for the Buckeyes next week and then you’ll never have to root for them again.
Penn State will know where things stand prior to their next game. Ohio State and Indiana kick off their game next week at noon Eastern. Penn State will visit Minnesota at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.
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