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The New England Patriots and Cincinnati Bengals open their seasons at Paycor Stadium Sunday. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Patriots vs. Bengals odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
The Patriots have named QB Jacoby Brissett their starter despite selecting QB Drake Maye out of North Carolina with the 3rd overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. New England is projected to win 4.5 games this season (Over: -125 | Under: +100 at BetMGM Sportsbook) under new coach Jerod Mayo, after parting ways with Bill Belichick in January.
Bengals QB Joe Burrow is back and healthy after rehabbing from last year’s season-ending wrist surgery. Not all the news coming out of Cincinnati has been positive, though, as WRs Ja’Marr Chase (contract dispute) and Tee Higgins (hamstring) are both questionable for Sunday’s home opener.
Burrow is 1-0 in his career against the Patriots. Cincinnati covered as a 3-point road favorite in the 22-18 win Dec. 24, 2022, as the Over (39.5) hit.
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Patriots at Bengals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 6:27 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Patriots +310 (bet $100 to win $310) | Bengals -400 (bet $400 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Patriots +8 (-110) | Bengals -8 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 41 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Patriots at Bengals key injuries
Patriots
- WR Kendrick Bourne (knee) out
- RB Antonio Gibson (hip) questionable
- T Vederian Lowe (oblique) questionable
- G Sidy Sow (ankle) questionable
- LB Joshua Uche (foot) questionable
Bengals
- WR Ja’Marr Chase (contract dispute) questionable
- WR Tee Higgins (hamstring) questionable
- T Amarius Mims (pectoral) questionable
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Patriots at Bengals picks and predictions
Prediction
Bengals 24, Patriots 10
Moneyline
The Bengals (-400) are 3-1 in their last 4 home games when Burrow starts — the lone loss was a 30-27 Week 10 defeat to the Houston Texans on a last-second FG. However, I can’t recommend risking $400 to win $100 on the ML.
PASS. Bet the spread and/or total instead.
Against the spread
There are a lot of unknowns in this game. We haven’t seen how Brissett and the Patriots will play under Mayo, but from the limited information we do have, they should be a bottom-3 team in the NFL.
The problem with betting the spread in this game is that we don’t know if Chase and/or Higgins will play. Your lean in this game will depend on how bearish you are on the Patriots and your confidence in Burrow potentially playing without his 2 best WRs.
I’ll be fine that I laid this number if at least 1 of them plays Sunday, which I believe is the most likely scenario. Burrow seems to be as healthy as he’s ever been, and in his 5th season in the NFL, he should be able to beat the rebuilding Patriots by 9 or more points in a home opener.
BET BENGALS -8 (-110), or add Bengals -2 in a 2-team, 6-point teaser (-130).
Over/Under
While a team’s defense isn’t as predictable as its offense at the beginning of a season, we can only assume the Patriots will still have an above-average defense. They allowed 21.5 points per game last season (14th-fewest in NFL) and were 10-7 to the Under (58.8%), according to TeamRankings.com.
The Patriots have the shortest odds to be the lowest-scoring team in the NFL during Sunday’s games (+650 at FanDuel Sportsbook). Since I expect the Patriots defense to continue to be above average and the market is projecting them to be the worst offense Sunday, I have no interesting in looking at the Over.
BET UNDER 41 (-110).
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