The 2019 Dallas Cowboys were certainly a volatile, emotional experience. Despite the sensational high points like Dak Prescott’s early-to-mid-season MVP-campaign, inconsistency down the stretch stirred tension and anxiety. Even with Dallas holding the division lead in the final month of the season, speculation grew as to whether Jason Garrett would return as head coach in 2020. The news broke later than some anticipated, but nevertheless, for the first time in a decade, Garrett will not be on the sideline for the Dallas Cowboys. Instead, Mike McCarthy will be stepping in to fill the void after a year-long hiatus from the NFL.
In his last stint as head coach, McCarthy’s reputation came under heavy scrutiny when reports surfaced depicting a toxic relationship with Aaron Rodgers, and a prodigious amount of dysfunction within the locker room. However, it’s difficult to fully discern the truth of such a situation to know how much blame should be allocated to McCarthy. He’s likely not fully innocent, but it’s doubtful he’s the only guilty party either.
Even with the unhappy ending in Green Bay, McCarthy did manage to stay at the helm for nearly 13 seasons and exit with what is now the third-best active winning percentage among NFL coaches (.618). In that time, he helped develop Aaron Rodgers into a two-time MVP, made the playoffs nine times, and won a Super Bowl in 2010. Unluckily, three of those playoff runs ended in the NFC-Championship game (including the infamous botched onside kick recovery by Brandon Bostick). On paper, that’s a pretty solid resume.
Despite this, there were other concerns regarding McCarthy as a head-coaching candidate. Some speculated that the Rodgers-McCarthy tension was at least partially fueled by stagnancy in the coach’s offensive play-calling. Pop onto Twitter and search “McCarthy” and there will be somebody making a crack about his over-usage of the slant-flat combo.
Again, there’s probably at least some notion of truth to the jokes.
But in a year away from the NFL, McCarthy has done everything you could ask of someone determined to get back to the top. As Peter King outlined in the article, McCarthy has spent time in self-reflection, evaluation, intense study, and preparation for where he and the NFL are heading next. Openness to constructive criticism and the ability to adapt on the fly are huge positives for a high-leverage position like an NFL coach. It’s encouraging to see these signs now, but incorporating them once you’re in the job is much more difficult.
Evaluating McCarthy’s Green Bay tenure is truly difficult, as the offensive success they exhibited is simultaneously tied to Rodgers. Yet again, who gets the credit and blame? Thus, rather than focusing on overall performance, I tried to parse out team aspects and decision-making that are generally more attributable to coaching.
Penalties
Charted above is the number of penalties committed by the Green Bay Packers each year from 2009 – 2018. I’ve excluded 2006-2008 as those years are unavailable via the nflscrapR package.
As you can see, in all about two seasons under McCarthy, the Packers ranked in the top half of the league in regards to penalties committed. Typically, penalties are considered to be a reflection of discipline and coaching. Consequently, it’s certainly positive that McCarthy’s Packers generally performed well in this area.
Challenges
At this stage of my NFL fandom I’m not sure we can even define what constitutes a catch anymore. In an era of high-definition slow-motion replay, the understanding and interpretation of the rule book is murkier than ever. It’s actually remarkable referees get as much right as they do, given the speed of the game they’re assigned to judge. It doesn’t get any easier for a head coach either.
The moment a coach has to challenge a play can be as thin as a razor’s edge. The game continues to move, and their job in managing the flow, morale, chemistry, and game-plan of the team doesn’t stop for them to think it over. It’s often a gut-level reaction, and unfortunately, intuition can often lead us astray.
From 2009-2018, there were 2,933 coach’s challenges in regular season games. Of those, 1,220 resulted in the call on the field being overturned (41.6%). Over that same time-span, McCarthy threw the challenge flag 66 times, and won 32 of those challenges (48.5%). While he was his result was better than average, it’s a small enough sample that perhaps he was just a little lucky.
Passing Tendency
Naturally, when a team is in a situation when they’re likely to win, they generally run the ball more. The chart above depicts this, as the black line shows the league average passing rate based on the game-script at the time of play. Further to the right means the team with the ball is more likely to win. Unsurprisingly, passing rates decrease as the chance of winning increases.
Notice also the green line, which represents the Packers’ passing rate under McCarthy. While the line follows the same general trend (moving down to the right), it’s higher than the black line at every stage of the chart. In essence, this means the Packers were much more likely to throw the ball than the average team, regardless of the game-script.
I’m always a proponent to throw the ball more, and thus, I’m quite pleased with this tendency. However, it’s at least possible that this result was somewhat tied to the personnel McCarthy had to deploy on offense. The closest thing Green Bay had to a feature back under McCarthy was Eddie Lacy when he ran for 1,100 yards in 2013 and 2014. Beyond that, the running back position was typically a committee deployment involving guys like James Starks, Ryan Grant and even converted wide receiver Ty Montgomery.
All this to say, McCarthy hasn’t had a running back like Ezekiel Elliott, and how he chooses to deploy him will be one of the features I’m most intrigued to observe.
Aggressiveness
While showing an overall propensity for passing more, McCarthy has previously come under fire for being too conservative as a play-caller. Admittedly, a coach’s aggressiveness is quite difficult to quantify (unless you’re the Ravens). Here, I chose to focus on fourth-down decisions.
Again, from 2009-2018, the Packers faced 4th-and-less-than-five in opposing territory 234 times. 86 times the offense stayed on the field and went for the first down (36.7%). Over the same time-span, the NFL went for it 2445 times out of 8135 opportunities (30%).
McCarthy may have at least some foundation to incorporate analytics into his coaching methods. Even so, he will need to develop trust in Dak Prescott for any type of aggressive decision-making to transpire.
Summary
Overall, McCarthy comes up with a largely positive resume. Every coaching candidate has some risks and cons, but for a team that’s ready to compete, he’s a fantastic acquisition. Of course, a head coach can’t do it alone. Even if past mistakes or negative traits begin to recur, having the right staff in place can offset these bumps and provide feedback that moves the team back toward their desired process. Thus, the next stage of the hiring process is paramount. But at least for today, Cowboys fans can be optimistic about this hire, and the potential it instills for 2020 and beyond.
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