Ron Rivera decided to go for two.
If it had been successful, the Packers’ lead would have been cut to just six points, bringing Carolina that much closer to a thrilling comeback win. Panthers fans would be sharing Riverboat Ron memes and praising the genius and daring of their coach, who understands how the modern game works and isn’t afraid to use analytics to his advantage.
The two-point conversion attempt didn’t work out. So instead, Panthers fans are calling him foolish and worse. The thing is Rivera made the right call – at least if you believe in numbers. That time, anyway.
The result isn’t always going to be there. The process is what matters. The more times you make the correct decision, the more often you will reap the benefits.
That’s what makes Rivera’s inconsistent use of analytics so frustrating.
Rivera set the wrong tone for the game on the very first drive, when he decided to punt on 4th and 3 inside Packers territory. Given the way last week’s win over the Titans went, it was a baffling decision, made all the more confusing by Rivera’s post-game comments when he talked about the decision to go for two, per the Athletic.
“Yes, that was purely analytics, 100 percent. . . If you don’t get it there, you get an opportunity to go for two again. We feel pretty good about the play we had called the first time, and we felt good about having the second one up. It’s most certainly something where we went ahead and followed the analytics of it.”
“Following the analytics of it” is what winning teams do, but in the next breath Rivera changed course and talked about his gut feelings and game flow.
Last week, Rivera’s instincts told him to go for it on two separate fourth downs against the Titans. Or maybe it was the analytics. It’s hard to tell when there’s no clear method of operating. In any case, after that win, several players remarked on how much confidence Rivera’s aggressive decisions gave them.
What were they to think when Rivera punted away inside Green Bay’s territory to begin the game?
For all the talk about Kyle Allen’s poise and grit and leadership ability, not trusting him to get three yards there when the analytics say otherwise and Allen’s opening drive looked strong doesn’t inspire confidence and raises questions about Rivera’s own leadership.
The Panthers have an analytics department, which they announced without much fanfare in June. We must assume that Taylor Rajack and whoever else works in that department get paid real money to do their jobs. David Tepper can afford it, in any case. Since the franchise is paying for it, they might as well put it to use on the field.
Rivera needs to make a choice.
Either the analytics trump his gut feelings and the “situation” or they don’t. This mix and mash he’s got going on is only going to lead to confusion and more of those infamous missed opportunities.
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