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The San Diego Padres (55-50) and Baltimore Orioles (61-41) begin a 3-game series Friday. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is set for 7:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Padres won 2 of 3 in 2023
The Padres will wrap up their 9-game East Coast road trip in Baltimore. They’ve won 5 straight after sweeping the Washington Nationals, highlighted by Dylan Cease‘s no-hitter in a 3-0 win on Thursday. San Diego outscored Washington 19-3 over their 3-game set. They are 29-22 on the road this season and 54-51 against the spread (ATS).
Baltimore snapped a 3-game losing streak on Thursday with a 7-6 victory in 10innings over the Miami Marlins. The Orioles squandered a 6-run lead before 1B Ryan Mountcastle‘s go-ahead single in the 10th inning. Baltimore got home runs from RF Anthony Santander, CF Colton Cowser, and 2B Connor Norby. They are 30-22 at home and 55-47 ATS.
Padres at Orioles projected starters
RHP Adam Mazur vs. RHP Grayson Rodriguez
Mazur (1-3, 7.84 ERA) makes his 8th career start. He has a 1.84 WHIP, 5.5 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 in 31 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 8-3 loss against the Seattle Mariners on July 9
- 2024 road splits: 0-1, 4.61 ERA (13 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.61 WHIP, 6.6 K/9 in 3 starts
- Rookie has never started against Baltimore
Rodriguez (12-4, 3.83 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 in 105 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 8-4 victory at Texas Rangers Saturday
- 2024 home splits: 5-2, 3.14 ERA (48 2/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 in 8 games
- Only start vs. Padres: Loss, 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 6 K in a 4-1 road victory on Aug. 14, 2023
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Padres at Orioles odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:03 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres +172 (bet $100 to win $172) | Orioles -205 (bet $205 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-118) | Orioles -1.5 (+102)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -122 | U: +100)
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Padres at Orioles picks and predictions
Prediction
Orioles 5, Padres 3
Moneyline
PASS.
I’ve got the Orioles (-205) winning this game, but I’m staying away from that moneyline. I’m not willing to pay all that juice.
Run line/Against the spread
BET ORIOLES -1.5 (+102).
This will be a difficult series for the Orioles, but Baltimore doesn’t have to face a red-hot Cease and the Padres have to face Rodriguez, who has won 4 of his last 5 starts and allowing a total of 7 ER in those 4 victories. The team has a 3.59 ERA at Camden Yards on the season.
The Padres are throwing out Mazur who has just 1 win on the season. He has allowed at least 3 ER in each of his last 4 starts.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 9 (+100).
I will say that this is a lukewarm recommendation. These 2 teams went Under in 2 of their last 3 meetings. The Padres have been Under in 8 of their last 10 games, but the Orioles have been Over in 4 of their last 5. Which is why I’m not as high as I’d like to be on this bet.
I’d probably keep this bet to half a unit and put more on the run line bet.
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