Tag: Padres Dodgers odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (74-66) clash with the NL West rival Los Angeles Dodgers (89-53) in the second game of their three-game set at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 9:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

L.A. shutout San Diego 3-0 Friday in the series opener as Dodgers starting LHP Julio Urias had 7 IP with 3 H, 1 BB and 7 K and 1B Max Muncy‘s 2-run homer in the 3rd-inning was enough for the win.

Season series: Tied 7-7.

RHP Chris Paddack takes the hill for the Padres. Paddack is 7-6 with a 4.95 ERA (103 2/3 IP, 57 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 21 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision in San Diego’s 4-3 home victory over the Houston Astros Sunday with a stat line of 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 0 K.
  • Road splits: 4-2 with a 3.74 ERA (55 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 0.99 WHIP and 6.6 K/9 in 11 starts.
  • vs. Dodgers on the current roster (69 PA): 6.48 FIP with a .344 batting average (BA), .446 wOBA, .559 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 17.4 K% and 92.0 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Walker Buehler is L.A.’s projected starter. Buehler is 13-3 with a 2.31 ERA (179 IP, 46 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 28 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 6-4, with 3 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 1 K Sunday at the San Francisco Giants.
  • Buehler has three no-decisions this year against San Diego with a 1.83 ERA (19 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 0.81 WHIP and 10.5 K/BB in three starts.
  • vs. Padres on the current roster (150 PA): 3.67 FIP with a .180 BA, .238 wOBA, .443 xSLG, 28.0 K% and 88.8 mph EV.

Padres at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:35 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Dodgers -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-120) | Dodgers -1.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -120 | U:-105)

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Prediction

Dodgers 4, Padres 2

Money line (ML)

PASS because the Dodgers (-230) exceeds my buy price of -180 for L.A. in this spot and we’re seeing slight “reverse line movement” in the betting market thus far.

According to Pregame.com, nearly 90% of the action is on L.A. money line but the Dodgers have gotten cheaper by 10 cents on the dollar since the opener. It’s suspicious whenever a sportsbook makes the far more popular side cheaper.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the DODGERS -1.5 (+100) for a half unit because Paddack is a fringe rotation guy for the Padres and has scary pitching peripherals against L.A.’s lineup. While Buehler has pitched well vs. San Diego despite not picking up a win yet and has the best odds to win the NL Cy Young.

Over/Under (O/U)

TAKE UNDER 7.5 (-105) for 1 unit because both lineups have struggled recently and the Under is 3-0-1 in the last four Padres-Dodgers meetings.

Both San Diego’s and L.A.’s lineup has been below-average in wRC+, wOBA and WAR over the last two weeks, with the Dodgers being ranked worse surprisingly. Also, each bullpen has been a top-tier unit this year.

I’m expecting a playoff-like atmosphere as these teams are currently the two NL Wild Card seeds with L.A. being just 2.5 games back of first in the NL West and San Diego trying to fend off the Cincinnati Reds for the second NL Wild Card berth. Typically, MLB playoff games are tighter and lower scoring.

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San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (74-65) and Los Angeles Dodgers (88-53) open a three-game set Friday. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is set for 10:10 p.m ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Padres RHP Joe Musgrove (10-8, 2.87 ERA) makes his 27th start and 28th appearance. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 through 153 2/3 IP.

  • Is 5-1 with a 2.77 ERA across nine second-half starts, including allowing just 3 earned runs over his last 20 1/3 innings.
  • Faced the Dodgers twice this season. Allowed 1 earned run over 3 innings April 25 in Los Angeles and allowed 1 earned run over 6 innings June 23 in San Diego.

Dodgers LHP Jose Urias (16-3, 3.11 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 156 1/3 IP.

  • Has not allowed more than 2 earned runs in a start since June 16; is 4-0 with a 1.42 ERA over 44 1/3 innings across eight starts in that span.
  • Faced the Padres in San Diego twice this season. Allowed 6 earned runs over 4 innings June 21 and pitched 5 scoreless innings Aug. 24

Padres at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Dodgers -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-170) | Dodgers -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Dodgers 5, Padres 3

Money line (ML)

San Diego and L.A. meet for the 14th time Friday with the Padres holding a 7-6 lead in the season series, but the last month and a bit tell the story of two teams heading in starkly different directions.

San Diego is a sub-.500 team since the beginning of August, with a 14-18 record that includes being swept at home by L.A. in a three-game series. Los Angeles posted a 25-10 record over that time span.

While these two clubs still occupy the two NL Wild Card spots the Dodgers have a 13 game lead over the Padres who are just 1 game ahead of the Cincinnati Reds for the last playoff position.

The Padres roughed up Urias in a previous start and handed the southpaw one of his three losses this season but they’ve generally done poorly against left-handed pitching. San Diego is 24th in OPS and wOBA and 25th in wRC+ against lefties.

Back LOS ANGELES (-155).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The odds here don’t quite justify the 2 runs you’d need to pick up a Los Angeles cover. L.A. is coming off two losses in a row for the first time since late July, and its bullpen was used for 8 of the 16 innings Wednesday and Thursday.

Concerns about road weariness as the Dodgers return home from a seven-game trek, a bullpen that shouldered a heavy load and Musgrove holding them in check through two previous starts are enough to make me leery of a 2-run cushion at only +125.

If this gets up to a +150 range I’d be considering it as a value-based play. In the meantime, PASS.

Over/Under (O/U)

Although I anticipate good starting pitching Friday this is a spot that both bullpens might give up some action. These clubs’ back ends are both bottom-10 units in xFIP and SIERA over the last two weeks.

This number is quite low. Back the OVER 7.5 (-125) and I’d even get behind the Over 8.0 if it moved there. However, if it reaches 8.5 as the day goes on it’s a pass from me.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (12-11) and Los Angeles Dodgers (15-6) wrap up their four-game series on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Tied 3-3

The Dodgers won 5-4 Saturday after losing the first two games of the series: 3-2 Thursday and 6-1 Friday.

RHP Joe Musgrove is Sunday’s projected starting pitcher for San Diego. He is 2-2 with a 1.04 ERA (26 IP, 3 ER), 0.54 WHIP, 12.8 K/9 and 1.0 BB/9 in 4 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 13 K vs. Milwaukee Brewers Monday – Padres lost 3-1
  • Career vs. Dodgers: 0-3, 5.40 ERA (16 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.44 WHIP, 5.9 K/9 in 3 starts

The Dodgers are looking to RHP Dustin May in the finale. Through 3 starts, he is 1-1 with a 2.93 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 12.9 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K at Seattle Mariners Monday – Dodgers lost 4-3
  • 2020 postseason vs. Padres: 1-0, 0.00 ERA (3 IP, 0 ER), 0 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 1 start and 1 relief appearance
  • Career vs. Padres (regular season): 1-3, 2.97 ERA (30 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 0.96 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 in 4 starts and 3 relief appearances

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Padres at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:51 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Dodgers -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-190) | Dodgers -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Prediction

Padres 4, Dodgers 2

Money line (ML)

Based on the pitching matchup, SAN DIEGO (+105) is the way to go.

Musgrove is a stud. He might be 0-2 since tossing the Padres’ first no-hitter in franchise history April 9, but the right-hander only allowed 3 runs in those two outings.

In his first game after the no-no in which he threw 112 pitches, he was lifted for a pinch-hitter in the top of the fifth inning after tossing 81 pitches.

In his next start, Musgrove was a hard-luck loser, allowing just 2 runs in 7 innings and striking out 13 in a 3-1 loss to Milwaukee.

There’s no doubt he’s capable of shutting out the Dodgers if he’s on top of his game.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Padres +1.5 (-190) is just too chalky. However, back the alternate line of PADRES -1.5 (+180) with a QUARTER-UNIT wager.

ATS records: Padres 12-11 | Dodgers 11-10

Over/Under (O/U)

Back UNDER 7.5. (-120) to win 30% OF 1 UNIT. A $100 player should bet $36 to win $30; a $10 player should bet $3.60 to win $3.

The Under is 4-0 in Musgrove’s starts and 2-1 in May’s starts.

Plus, both clubs have been paying off for Under bettors so far this season, but the last two games of this series finished Over.

Prior to the two Overs, San Diego played six Unders in a row and Los Angeles was on a 5-game Under streak.

O/U records: Padres 8-15 | Dodgers 8-13

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Note: There is no STRONGEST PLAY on this card.

Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

JOHNNY RECORD W-L SP ROI
2021 MLB 28-18-1 8-5-1 +8.5275
2021 (all sports) 131-103-2 57-46-1 +22.0775
*–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment

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San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (12-10) and Los Angeles Dodgers (14-6) play Game 3 of a four-game series Saturday at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 9:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Blake Snell is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. Over the last two seasons, Snell is 4-2 with a 3.44 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 11.98 K/9 and 3.86 BB/9 in 65.1 IP over 15 starts. He has posted a 4.11 ERA in 4 starts this season. He allowed 2 ER in 5 IP against LA April 18.

RHP Trevor Bauer is the projected starter for the Dodgers. Over 15 starts in 2020-21, Bauer is 7-4 with a 1.91 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 12.4 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 in 99 IP . He has clocked a 2.42 ERA through 4 starts this season; the most recent of those was a 6-inning effort (1 ER on 3 hits) against these Padres on Sunday.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Padres at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:00 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Dodgers -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-160) | Dodgers -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under: 7 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Dodgers 4, Padres 3

Money line (ML)

The Friars took Friday’s game, 6-1, and have allowed just three total runs in claiming games one and two of this series. The back-to-back rivalry wins come after San Diego had gone just 2-7 over its previous nine.

The Padres look to be catching the Dodgers at the right time. Los Angeles owns a mere .547 OPS over its last six games. And with the Friars starting Snell in this one, that turns the Dodgers around to their lesser platoon splits (.682 OPS vs. left-handed pitching).

Peg a bit of play on Snell, and bank on the Padres owning the better bullpen. Current Padre bats own an .858 OPS against Bauer. TAKE SAN DIEGO +125.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Consider a PADRES +1.5 (-160) wager as an undercard bet, especially if a line watch yields a tag closer to -150. The Under is 3-1 in the last four games of this Southern California season series, and a tight game with a total near 7 would not be a surprise on Saturday.

Over/Under (O/U)

Respecting the public here, with no real lean toward any batting or pitching components being under- or over-estimated. PASS.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (10-10) visit the Los Angeles Dodgers (14-4) Thursday for the start of a four-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Dodgers 2-1

The NL West rivals met last weekend at Petco Park with the Dodgers taking the first two games and the Padres avoiding a sweep with a win in the finale.

Los Angeles had Wednesday off after winning 1-0 at the Seattle Mariners Tuesday to split a two-game series. San Diego enters on a 3-game slide after getting swept at home in three by the Milwaukee Brewers.

To begin this series, Padres LHP Ryan Weathers is projected to make his second career start. The 21-year-old rookie is 1-0 with a 0.93 ERA (9 2/3 IP, 1 ER), 0.72 WHIP, 10 strikeouts and 4 walks in 3 relief appearances and 1 start.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 3 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 3 K vs. Dodgers Friday – Padres lost 11-6 in 12 innings
  • 2020 postseason vs. Dodgers: MLB debut, 1 relief outing, 0.00 ERA (1 1/3 IP, 0 ER), 0 H, 2 BB and 1 K

RHP Walker Buehler is the projected Dodgers’ starter. The five-year veteran is 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA (18 IP, 4 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 6.0 K/9 and 0.5 BB/9 in 3 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 4 K at Padres Friday – Dodgers won 11-6 in 12 innings
  • Career vs. Padres (regular season): 4-0, 1.62 ERA (39 IP, 7 ER), 0.82 WHIP, 11.3 K/9 in 6 starts

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Padres at Dodgers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Dodgers -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-135) | Dodgers -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Dodgers 4, Padres 2

Money line (ML)

PASS. The Dodgers’ (-185) price is chalkier than I prefer. The better value is actually with the Padres (+150), but I don’t like their chances against Buehler.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

LOS ANGELES -1.5 (+110) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.

When the Dodgers win, they cover the run line. They’ve won by at least 2 runs in 11 of their 14 overall wins this season. Both of their victories (11-6 in 12 innings and 2-0) in last weekend’s three-game series in San Diego were by at least 2 runs.

The Dodgers were 6-4 straight up vs. the Padres in the 2020 regular season and five of the six wins were by at least 2 runs. Plus, when they met in an NLDS last year, the Dodgers swept the Friars in three with two wins by at least 2 runs.

ATS records: Padres 9-11 | Dodgers 11-7

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 7.5 (+100) is worth a 0.75-UNIT wager. Both clubs are Under teams.

The Padres have played 5 Unders in a row; the Dodgers have played 4 Unders in row. Both streaks include the final 2 games of last weekend’s series at Petco as the Under went 2-1 in those 3 games.

O/U records: Padres 6-14 | Dodgers 6-12

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

JOHNNY RECORD W-L SP ROI
2021 MLB 26-15 8-3 +11.1775
2020 MLB 80-59-1 39-21 +24.79
2021 (all sports) 129-100-1 57-44 +24.7275
*–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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