Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Indiana Pacers (25-30) take on the Miami Heat (29-25) Wednesday at Miami-Dade Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Pacers vs. Heat odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Flipping their usual script, the Pacers had a strong 1st quarter against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday before collapsing and losing 122-103. Every starter for Cleveland scored at least 16 points. Indiana shot 25% from 3, which didn’t do them any favors.

The Heat are on their own 2-game losing streak, falling to both the New York Knicks and Milwaukee Bucks. The Heat defense allowed the Bucks to shoot 52% in the 123-115 loss on Saturday, but the  5.5-point underdogs kept things close thanks to a positive turnover differential.

The Pacers lead the season series 2-1. They won 101-99 in Indiana, lost the next game in Indiana 87-82, and most recently won 111-108 in Miami.

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Pacers at Heat odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:21 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Pacers +225 (bet $100 to win $225) | Heat -270 (bet $270 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Pacers +6.5 (-102) | Heat -6.5 (-118)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 222.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Pacers at Heat key injuries

Pacers

  • Chris Duarte (ankle) questionable

Heat

  • F Nikola Jovic (lower back) out
  • G Kyle Lowry (knee) out
  • G Victor Oladipo (ankle) out
  • F Duncan Robinson (finger) out
  • C Orlando Robinson (thumb) probable
  • G Gabe Vincent (ankle) probable
  • C Omer Yurtseven (ankle) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Pacers at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 109, Pacers 106

Moneyline

Despite having a better record, Miami doesn’t have many stats where they truly excel. They are 26th in rebounds per game, 23rd in assists, and 30th in points.

Their defense however is the engine of their success. They are 2nd in the NBA in opponent field goals made, 2nd in opponent free throws made, and 1st in opponent offensive rebounds. Since the current lines are too high you should AVOID.

Against the spread

Both teams have struggled to cover recently. The Pacers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games, while Miami has covered just once in their last 5 games.

The line is moving away from Indiana and you may think about pouncing closer to tip off if more money continues to push the line.

While I am less confident in the spread as the Over/Under I still LEAN PACERS +6.5 (-102).

Over/Under

This matchup looks prime to be low scoring. Miami’s defense is strong, while Indiana’s offense runs through 1 player, G Tyrese Haliburton. The Heat are 27th in shooting percentage at home while Indiana is 28th on the road.

BET UNDER 222.5 (-108).

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Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Indiana Pacers (13-18) head to South Beach Tuesday for a 7:30 p.m. game against the Miami Heat (18-13) at FTX Arena. Below, we look at the Pacers vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Indiana snapped a two-game losing skid Thursday by beating the Detroit Pistons 122-113 but failed to cover as a 10.5-point home favorite.

The Pacers are 3-2 straight-up (SU), 3-2 ATS and 2-3 O/U the last two weeks with the sixth-best non-garbage time net rating (plus-5.4 points per 100 possessions), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Miami had its two-game win streak snapped with a 100-90 loss at the Pistons as a 6.5-point favorite. The Heat is 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS and 2-4 O/U over the last 14 days with the seventh-ranked non-garbage time net rating (plus-4.9 points per 100 possessions), per CTG.

These teams are tied 1-1 SU and ATS in their regular-season series heading into the rubber match and both sides of the total has cashed.

Pacers at Heat odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:10 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Pacers -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Heat +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Pacers -1.5 (-115) | Heat +1.5 (-107)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 209.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Pacers at Heat key injuries

Pacers

  • None.

Heat

  • SG Tyler Herro (quadriceps) questionable
  • Bam Adebayo (thumb) out
  • SF Jimmy Butler (back) out
  • PF P.J. Tucker (knee) out
  • SG Caleb Martin (health and safety protocols) out

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Pacers at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Pacers 108, Heat 97

Money line

TAKE the PACERS (-125) for 1 unit because they have a higher rebounding rate and better ball security. Indiana also led Miami in all “four factors” in their first meeting this season and in three of the “four factors” in the second.

The Heat are definitely without three of their starters and could be without Sixth Man of the Year candidate, Herro.

Butler has only played in one game this month and Miami is 22nd in non-garbage time net rating (minus-3.0 points per 100 possessions) in December (CTG). Compare that to Indiana who’s eighth in non-garbage time net rating this month (plus-2.6 points per 100 possessions).

The Pacers are not only playing better but are the more well-rested team. Indiana hasn’t played since Dec. 16 whereas Miami last played Sunday.

GIMME the PACERS (-125).

Against the spread

PASS on the Pacers -1.5 (-115) since Indiana’s money line is only 10 cents on the dollar more expensive. For what it’s worth, the Pacers are 6-8 ATS on the road and the Heat are 8-4 ATS at home.

However, Indiana is 5-2 ATS on the road versus teams with a winning record and 3-2-1 ATS and a plus-4.9 spread differential when playing with a rest advantage.

Over/Under

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 209.5 (-112) because a boatload of money has been dumped on the Over, according to both Pregame.com and the Yahoo! Sports app. However, both of these teams rank 23rd or lower in pace and the Under has cashed in eight of the past 11 Pacers-Heat meetings.

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