Stanford and Cal to ACC loses steam, so AAC re-enters the Pac-12 picture

Key point: If the ACC is off the table for Stanford and Cal, a merger with the Mountain West becomes more possible again.

Is anyone else exhausted by conference realignment? We sure are.

Like a dog chasing a cat in an open field, we’re always running a little bit behind, trying to keep up with the latest rumors, plot twist, conference board meetings, and the other related events in this theater of activity which is sometimes referred to as “a soap opera for dudes.”

It might be sad and depressing to see the Pac-12 die, and it might be annoying to see college athletes being disregarded in this process. Oregon softball players and Arizona State swimmers did not sign up for long plane flights to the Midwest when they chose to attend those schools a few years ago. Their needs are being ignored, and we know it.

Yet, the larger drama surrounding realignment is impossible to pull away from until it runs its course. Knowing that it’s uncertain whether Stanford University — a prestigious school with elite sports programs across the board — will be in one conference or another is hugely dramatic and considerably significant. We want to find out where this road is leading, and we want to stay with this drama until it is resolved.

That’s why realignment is exhausting. We don’t seem to have resolution to Stanford’s (and Cal’s, and Oregon State’s and Washington State’s) plight.

The ACC refused to vote on admitting Stanford and Cal on Wednesday night, a clear indication the conference doesn’t have the votes to approve the move. If the ACC’s attempt to bring in Stanford and Cal has stalled, that means the AAC is still a player. It also means the Mountain West might still have a chance to work something out with the “Pac-4.”

Let’s give you some reactions to the AAC part of this puzzle. Much like Stanford and Cal to the ACC, it wouldn’t seem to make a lot of sense, but then again, the Pac-12 dying doesn’t make sense on many levels.

Here we go:

San Diego State wanted to create a new conference, but it failed badly

New reporting confirms what we all knew: The #Aztecs wanted in the #Pac12. Why didn’t the Pac let them in? This is why the Pac died.

On June 17, shortly after San Diego State sent its (June 13) letter to the Mountain West Conference, we wrote about the acute need for the Pac-12 to bring the Aztecs aboard:

“Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark is aggressive and proactive. San Diego State just wants to find the exit door for the Mountain West right now and avoid paying more departure fees. The likelihood is SDSU is heading for the Pac-12, but that’s not guaranteed.

“Yormark could step in and give the Aztecs a very attractive offer. As long as the Pac-12 media rights situation remains unresolved, Yormark has a window in which he can spring into action and pull an upset that would damage the Pac-12.

“This is why George Kliavkoff needs to land the plane and get this media rights deal done sooner rather than later.”

We were wrong about the Big 12 wanting San Diego State, but we were right about the Pac-12 needing to invite SDSU for the lower exit penalty fee, and we were also right about the importance of getting a media deal done sooner rather than later, with San Diego State and SMU in the Pac-12 to boost media rights value for the conference, and to also serve as a buffer against any potential flight risks in the conference. Colorado was the big flight risk. The Buffaloes’ departure triggered the mass exodus that has essentially destroyed the Pac-12.

We will continue to wonder — in dismay and disbelief — why the Pac-12 did not invite San Diego State in late June.

New reporting from Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports shows how badly San Diego State wanted to be part of the Pac-12 and probably would have stabilized the conference, acting as a safeguard against the splintering we just saw.

Below are reactions to Dodd’s story on social media:

George Kliavkoff needs to resign as Pac-12 commissioner

If the #Pac12 — now the #Pac4 — merges with the #MountainWest, George Kliavkoff doesn’t deserve to oversee that process.

Now that the Pac-12 Conference is down to four schools, the conference — such as it is — is basically dead.

Maybe it will merge with the Mountain West and continue under the Pac-12 name, but that’s a very technical distinction. The longtime schools that  comprised the Pac-12 have mostly left. USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington are gone. You don’t really have a Pac-12, if you don’t have any of those four schools.

Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado are all much younger schools relative to the Pacific Northwest and Los Angeles schools. They are — in a historical context — not as significant. Nevertheless, when a conference shrinks from 12 to four, and the only prospect of survival lies in merging with a lower-tier conference that includes Wyoming, New Mexico and Colorado State, something has gone very wrong.

Therefore, if we are to consider the idea that the Pac-12 will retain its name (like the label on a soup can) and its Power Five/NCAA Tournament status, the man who presided over an unquestioned disaster, who failed at the task he was hired to perform (getting the media rights deal done) — should not be allowed to handle merger negotiations.

George Kliavkoff needs to resign.

People who made a mess don’t get to clean it up. Others do.

This begins our look at how a merger with the Mountain West should be handled. We continue with other recommendations below:

Pac-12 merger with Mountain West is a huge political headache … but it’s necessary

We can’t mention every last logistical element of a #Pac12 – #MountainWest merger, but we can focus on the main ones.

The Pac-12 has become the Pacific four, whittled to a small group of schools. Of these four schools, the only one with some degree of leverage is Stanford, an elite academic institution with a robust sports program in the Bay Area television market and none of the financial woes of Cal-Berkeley, its Bay Area neighbor.

Yet, Stanford isn’t calling the shots here. It can make a pitch to the Big Ten, which would seem like the obvious landing spot for the Cardinal, but the Big Ten ultimately has to want the “Trees.” How the Big Ten considers its options is a plot point worth paying attention to, but the larger point is that the Big Ten will decide if Stanford joins. Stanford will not decide if it goes to the Big Ten. It can’t make it happen. It can only hope for it to happen and pray the Big Ten says yes.

It’s similar in the Big 12, where Oregon State and Washington State would love to join, but the Big 12 has to want to invite the two schools. That doesn’t seem likely. Stanford to the Big Ten has a better chance of happening than Oregon State and Wazzu going to the Big 12.

If these four schools are denied entry into Power Five conferences, the Pac-12 merger with the Mountain West will need to happen.

Mark Zeigler of the San Diego Tribune wrote a very detailed examination of the Pac-12 and the Mountain West. We’ll unpack what he said and offer our own analysis as well.

Here we go:

Pac-12 and Mountain West merger: Will it happen, and how will it happen?

The Pac-4 and Mountain West could merge, but will all Mountain West schools be included? So many questions exist.

Will the Pac-12, which is really now a Pac-4, merge with the Mountain West? A lot of people are talking about it, and it is a possibility. However, we have numerous headaches and questions to sort through.

Will Stanford University even want to be in the Mountain West? Start there. Stanford would definitely prefer to go to the Big Ten. However, does the Big Ten want Stanford?

Follow-up question: Does the Big Ten want Stanford enough to also invite California, or does the Big Ten want Stanford, but not enough to invite the Cardinal alone, without Cal, and then find a 20th member elsewhere (possibly Florida State or North Carolina from the ACC)?

Another big question: Does the Big 12, which reportedly is considering further expansion to 18 schools, want Oregon State? The Beavers would love to go to the Big 12, but the Big 12 has to want them.

These questions are the beginning of a long and difficult process for schools without a lot of leverage as a Pac-4 merger with the Mountain West is discussed.

There is significant backroom chatter surrounding this. We’ll give you a sample below, accompanied by reportage from the San Diego Tribune and reactions from people in both conferences: