Tag: Pac-12 Bubble Watch

Pac-12 men’s basketball bubble watch: Oregon pushes Colorado into uncertainty

Colorado is not a lock, and could easily go to Dayton.

The Oregon Ducks are a bid-stealer. They won the Pac-12 Tournament and grabbed an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. The Pac-12 is guaranteed to have three bids to the Big Dance. Now we get to see if Colorado will make it four.

Colorado is not in bad shape, but it’s not a lock with Oregon shrinking the bubble. North Carolina State grabbed a surprising automatic bid in the ACC. Florida Atlantic losing in the AAC Tournament means the AAC should get a second bid, which reduces the size of the bubble even more. Colorado could be thrown into a pot with Oklahoma, St. John’s, Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Michigan State, Texas A&M, and a few other schools still on the bubble and not completely guaranteed to be in the NCAA Tournament. Colorado had a good week at the Pac-12 Tournament, beating Utah and Washington State, but with the bubble results we had on Friday and Saturday — in which a lot of automatic bids reduced the size of the bubble — at least one or two teams believed to be in good shape on Thursday or Friday will be pushed out of the field. That’s what those surprising automatic bids can do to bubble teams. Someone will be gut-punched on Selection Sunday.

We will see if Colorado is that team. That’s all for another year of bubble watch, the last one for the Pac-12 Conference.

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Pac-12 men’s basketball bubble watch: Oregon could ruin a lot of bubble teams, including Colorado

If Oregon wins the automatic bid in the Pac-12, that shrinks the bubble, and Colorado could be affected.

The Pac-12 basketball season just took a huge turn on Friday night at the Pac-12 Tournament in Las Vegas. The Oregon Ducks, who trailed top-seeded Arizona by 19 points early in the Pac-12 semifinals, stormed back for an absolutely shocking 67-59 win over the regular-season Pac-12 champion. The Ducks are now in the Pac-12 Tournament championship game and are one win away from getting an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Ducks Wire has more on the story, and here’s the bubble overview flowing from Oregon’s win:

Colorado beat Washington State in the second Pac-12 semifinal, with Buffaloes Wire providing complete coverage. Colorado’s chances of making the NCAA Tournament did increase with the win, but they might not have increased nearly as much as the Buffaloes and their fans would have liked.

Why? Oregon can now steal a bid from bubble teams, Colorado being one of them. If Colorado loses to Oregon on Saturday night, the Buffs’ chances of making the NCAA Tournament would be better than 50-50, but they would be far from a lock and could be excluded if other bubble teams succeed or if other surprising automatic bid-holders emerge from conference tournaments. We’ll have one more bubble watch on the morning of Selection Sunday. The Men’s NCAA Tournament Selection Show is Sunday at 6 p.m. Eastern, 3 p.m. Pacific, on CBS.

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Pac-12 women’s basketball bubble watch: Arizona right on the cut line before Selection Sunday

Arizona will likely be one of the last four in or the first four out on Selection Sunday. Drama in the Pac-12.

We are all waiting for Selection Sunday, one of the best days of the year for college basketball fans and sports fans. We get to fill out brackets and study the paths for teams on the road to the Final Four. Before making a deep run, though, teams need to get into the NCAA Tournament. In Pac-12 women’s basketball, six Pac-12 teams are guaranteed to be in the NCAA field. The bubble involves a few teams, including Washington State and Cal, but Arizona is viewed as the one team which has a decent chance of getting in.

Arizona is appearing as the last team in or the first team out in some brackets. The Wildcats are very close to the cut line and will have a long wait on Selection Sunday. Their odds are best viewed as 50-50, not a lock and not clearly on the bad side of the bubble, either. They’re right on the fence and will be one of the most-discussed bubble teams on Selection Sunday, for better or worse. If they get in, the Pac-12’s strength of schedule will have carried them. Arizona nearly beating USC twice in the past few weeks highlights the point that if Arizona had won just one of those two games, the Wildcats would clearly be in. As is, they’re a 50-50 shot before the brackets are revealed on Sunday.

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Pac-12 men’s basketball bubble watch: Utah steps on a rake while Colorado boosts its chances

Losing to Oregon State 10 days before Selection Sunday? Not a good move, Utes. You really stepped in it.

We saw two entirely different Pac-12 bubble results emerge on Thursday night. One team played its way off the bubble, while another team took a good step forward. Utah ruined its bubble existence by eating a decisive loss at Oregon State, while Colorado secured a vital bubble win by prevailing at Oregon.

Let’s go through these bubble situations and evaluate where the Utes and Buffs stand with just one regular season game left before the Pac-12 Tournament, keeping in mind that other bubble teams across the country are also going to be in action on Saturday and are part of the larger bubble calculus. The bubble is a study in moving parts, which means some wiggle room can exist. However, certain outcomes can carry more weight than others:

A bubble team cannot afford to lose at Oregon State, but that’s exactly what Utah did on Thursday night in Corvallis. Utah still has just one road win in Pac-12 play this year. Winning against Stanford and Cal at home last week merely kept Utah alive. Those wins did not increase Utah’s chances of getting into the NCAA Tournament; they merely prevented Utah from a downward fall on the bubble. The Utes needed to continue to win the games they were supposed to win, but winning was merely going to maintain Utah’s position, not improve it. After losing to Oregon State, Utah has clearly lost at least five or six slots in the bubble pecking order, if not more. It’s a very bad loss at a time when the Utes had very little — if any — margin for error.

Utah goes to Eugene on Saturday to face the Oregon Ducks. This much is clear: Utah has to win that game to stay alive in the bubble conversation. A loss means Utah would have to win the Pac-12 Tournament or — at the very least — reach the final by winning three straight games. We doubt Utah would win four straight in Vegas, so if we’re being realistic, this is Utah’s last best chance. A win wouldn’t put Utah in the field, but it would keep the Utes alive … barely.

We told you days ago that Utah needed three wins to make the NCAA Tournament. It might now be four, but let’s assume Utah does win in Eugene. It would now need at two wins at the Pac-12 Tournament, possibly three. Utah cannot make the NCAA Tournament with merely one win next week in Vegas. The Utes greatly increased their degree of difficulty by losing to Oregon State. Three wins is the absolute minimum right now. Four might be needed.

Oregon isn’t an NCAA Tournament team, but Colorado’s win in Eugene is still a solid win which will move the Buffaloes up a few spots in the bubble pecking order. Colorado is, one would think, in that “last four in or first four out” group right now. Winning at Oregon State on Saturday is essential. If the Buffs do that, they go to Las Vegas knowing that if they can win one game, they will be in the conversation on Selection Sunday. If they win two games in Vegas following a win over Oregon State, they should be in. Given how bleak everything looked for CU a week ago, it would be a Harry Houdini-style escape if they can make March Madness. Now they have a decent chance.

Rick Pitino’s St. John’s Red Storm have surged in the past two weeks, putting themselves in the NCAA Tournament hunt. Colorado could really use a St. John’s loss. However, while some bubble teams have helped themselves, others have not. Wake Forest, Ole Miss, Utah, and Cincinnati have played their way out of the field the past week, so that’s why Colorado still has a decent chance of getting in, provided it can do the job in the coming days. Stay with Buffaloes Wire for complete Colorado coverage.

Women’s basketball bubble watch: USC will play a bubble team at Pac-12 Tournament

USC is guaranteed to play a Pac-12 bubble team this week in Las Vegas. The Pac-12 will frankly want USC to lose.

The USC Trojans will be part of the story relating to the Pac-12 bubble in Pac-12 women’s basketball. USC is guaranteed to play a team which is part of the bubble picture at the Pac-12 Tournament this week in Las Vegas. The Trojans’ success and the Pac-12’s success will clash in Sin City. What will be good for USC will not be good for the league.

We will explain that and more in this pre-Pac-12 Tournament edition of the women’s basketball bubble watch. The 2024 Pac-12 Tournament begins Wednesday, March 6, in Las Vegas, continuing through Sunday, March 10. USC is the No. 2 seed at the tournament.

Here’s the latest on the Pac-12 women’s basketball bubble:

Pac-12 men’s basketball bubble watch: Oregon’s bubble bursts, Utah stays alive

Remove Oregon from any bubble discussions or lists. The Ducks must win the Pac-12 Tournament to go dancing.

The Oregon Ducks, if they are going to make the 2024 NCAA Tournament, will need to win the Pac-12 Tournament in a few weeks. The Pac-12 bubble no longer includes Oregon after the Ducks excluded themselves by losing to Arizona on Saturday in Tucson. Oregon had to pick up a high-end win over Arizona and then win a few more games to make an at-large case. That possibility no longer exists after the Wildcats drubbed Dana Altman’s athletes.

Ducks Wire has more:

For a few minutes to start the game, the Ducks traded baskets with the Wildcats, but then Arizona quickly went on a run, and the Ducks lost control of the game. At the half, the Ducks were down 30-51.

In the second half, there were points where it looked like Oregon might crawl back, but the Wildcats always responded and re-extended their lead. Jermaine Cousinard came alive for the Ducks in the second half, scoring 33 second-half points on 75% shooting, but it wasn’t enough to give Oregon a chance to win.

We’ll look at the new Pac-12 bubble with Oregon no longer being a part of it. Here’s what you need to know: