Tag: Orioles Yankees odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Baltimore Orioles (48-25) and New York Yankees (51-25) meet in a Thursday matinee at Yankee Stadium as they close out a 3-game series in the Bronx. First pitch is slated for 4:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Orioles lead 4-2

Baltimore dropped Tuesday’s game 4-2, but rebounded with a 7-6 triumph in 10 innings Wednesday. The O’s are 3-1 over their last 4 games and 9-3 over their last 12.

New York has lost 3 of its last 4. Its offense, mostly dormant in Wednesday’s game until late, has produced a mere .647 OPS over those 4 contests.

Orioles at Yankees projected starters

LHP Cole Irvin vs. RHP Luis Gil

Irvin (6-3, 3.03 ERA) makes his 12th start and 13th appearance. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 in 68 1/3 IP.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 6-3 loss vs. Atlanta Braves last Thursday
  • Career vs. Yankees: 0-2, 8.31 ERA (13 IP, 12 ER), 15 H, 6 BB, 11 K in 3 appearances (2 starts)
  • Threw a season-high 100 pitches in his last start

Gil (9-1, 2.03 ERA) is making his 15th start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 80 IP.

  • Last outing: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 6 K in 8-1 win at Boston Red Sox Friday
  • Career vs. Orioles: 2-0, 0.00 ERA (12  IP, 0 ER), 6 H, 2 BB, 11 K in 2 starts
  • Threw 6 1/3 innings at Baltimore May 1; 2 H, 0 R, 2 H, 1 BB, 5 K
  • Owns a 1.14 ERA on a .430 OPS allowed across 9 starts in May-June

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Orioles at Yankees odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:24 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Orioles +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Yankees -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-160) | Yankees -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Orioles at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 5, Yankees 4

Moneyline

Baltimore is 8-3 over its last 11 games against the Yankees.

New York’s offense is swung around to lesser platoon splits against left-handers (.707 OPS) and the status of OF Aaron Judge (day-to-day with a hand injury) chips away at the Yankees side of this ledger.

Gil has benefited from a .194 batting average on balls in play and, like Irvin, is coming off a season-high pitch count in his last. But Gil is younger and figurers top be monitored for usage creep as the season rolls into its mid-section. Ding the New York side of this mound match-up just a tad.

Though with minimal edge, BALTIMORE (+125) is the leverage side of Thursday’s game.

Run line/Against the spread

No value here. AVOID.

Over/Under

The last 9 Baltimore-New York games at Yankee Stadium have produced 6 Overs. And the Over has gone 13-6 in the Yankees’ last 19 contests.

Both starters have some surface numbers aided by generous rates in the luck factors like BABIP and home run/fly ball rates. Neither bullpen is in particularly good shape in the potential-fatigue department (and Baltimore’s pen has some nice recent numbers that don’t stand up to analytic scrutiny).

The weather for Thursday’s game will be warm, and an outward breeze blowing out to left field is likely. With these 2 clubs ranked 1-2 in scoring, back the OVER 8.5 (-115).

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Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Baltimore Orioles (47-25) and New York Yankees (51-24) continue their key AL East series Wednesday at 7:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Baltimore leads 3-2

The Orioles had a 4-game road winning streak snapped in a 4-2 loss in Tuesday’s series opener. They went 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position and were held scoreless until RF Anthony Santander hit a 2-run HR in the top of the 9th.

The Yankees snapped a 2-game skid with Tuesday’s triumph. They are looking to get back at Baltimore after a lackluster 1-3 performance at Camden Yards April 29-May 2.

Orioles at Yankees projected starters

LHP Cade Povich vs. RHP Gerrit Cole

Povich (0-1, 4.76 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 in 11 1/3 IP.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 4-2 win vs. Atlanta Braves last Wednesday
  • 24-year-old rookie who made his Major League debut June 6; has never faced the Yankees

Cole is making his season debut after being shut down with elbow inflammation during spring training. The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner and 6-time all-star logged a 2.63 ERA in 33 starts last season.

  • Allowed just 2 runs (1 ER) on 6 hits in 12 1/3 rehab innings from June 4-14; struck out 19 batters without issuing a walk
  • Career vs. Orioles: 5-3, 2.55 ERA (77 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 59 H, 14 BB, 93 K in 12 starts

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Orioles at Yankees odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:12 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Orioles +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Yankees -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-140) | Yankees -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Orioles at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 4, Orioles 3

Moneyline

New York is 14-5 in its last 19 and 7-2 across its last 9 at home. In a grind of a schedule with losses against Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies and Yanks, the Orioles are just 2-3 over their last 5.

Peg the home team as being just a sliver of a lean in this spot with a rookie hurler going against a veteran making an injury-delayed June debut. A shaved-down partial-unit play would be the best way to limit exposure on a YANKEES (-172) play. That tag is available on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Run line/Against the spread

The Under is a lean, and middling this play — taking New York outright and Baltimore plus the cushion — is tempting. But these 2 clubs do not engage in a lot of 1-run games, and again this mound match-up does not warrant too much deliberation. Save those fights for the games with more ammo on either side.

PASS.

Over/Under

The Under is 6-3 in Baltimore’s last 9 games when lined as an underdog and is 4-1 across the last 5 Orioles-Yankees games played in the Bronx.

The New York offense is much more dangerous against right-handed pitchers, and Povich has done well to limit hard contact through his 1st few starts. And he may be facing a Yankee lineup sans OF Aaron Judge, who was hit in the hand by a pitch Tuesday.

How much Cole gives New York is a question mark, but if the veteran righty was part of a low score delivered to the bullpens it would not be a major surprise.

BACK THE UNDER 8.5 (-110).

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Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Baltimore Orioles (47-24) and New York Yankees (50-24) open a 3-game series Tuesday. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is set for 7:05 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Baltimore leads 3-1

Baltimore beat the Philadelphia Phillies 8-3 Sunday, covering as a -135 home favorite with the Over (7) hitting. The Orioles took 2 of 3 vs. the Phillies — winning 6-2 as -175 faves Saturday — and are 8-2 in their last 10 games.

New York lost 9-3 as a 135 road favorite to the Boston Red Sox on Sunday Night Baseball with the Over (9.5) cashing. After taking Friday’s series opener 8-1 as -147 favorites, the Yankees lost Saturday (8-4 as -177 faves) and Sunday to lose 2 of 3 to their AL East rivals. New York is 5-5 in its last 10 games.

Orioles at Yankees projected starters

RHP Albert Suarez vs. LHP Nestor Cortes

Suarez (3-0, 1.61 ERA) makes his 8th start and 15th appearance. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 44 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 4-0 home victory vs. Atlanta Braves June 11
  • Never faced Yankees before; pitched in 54 career games

Cortes (3-5, 3.59 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 through 87 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 4-3 loss at Kansas City Royals Thursday
  • 2024 vs. Orioles: 1 start, loss, 6 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 4-2 setback on road April 30
  • Career vs. Orioles: 4-1, 2.45 ERA (51 1/3 IP, 14 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 across 8 starts and 2 relief appearances

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Orioles at Yankees odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 8:40 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Orioles +124 (bet $100 to win $124) | Yankees -146 (bet $146 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-166) | Yankees -1.5 (+138)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -122)

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Orioles at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 6, Yankees 4

Moneyline

BET ORIOLES (+124).

Baltimore is 4-0 in its last 4 road games and 10-2 in its last 12 road games, while New York is 1-2 in its last 3 at home. The Orioles are 7-2 in the last 9 head-to-head contests vs. New York, and are 4-2 in their last 6 games at Yankee Stadium.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Orioles +1.5 (-166) should cover here as underdogs, but the -166 juice isn’t worth the risk and backing Baltimore on the moneyline is much safer.

Over/Under

BET OVER 9 (+100).

The O/U is 2-0-1 in the Orioles’ last 3 games, and is 5-2-1 in their last 8 road outings. For the Yankees, the Over is 6-3-1 in their last 10, and 4-2 in their last 6 at home.

Baltimore is the 2nd-best Over team in the majors at 36-26-9 — the Detroit Tigers are No. 1 at 40-28-3. New York’s O/U this season is 35-36.

The Over has also hit in 2 of the last 3 Baltimore-New York matchups in New York with the non-Over being a Push on a O/U line of 9.

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Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Baltimore Orioles (50-35) and New York Yankees (48-39) meet Thursday to close out a 4-game AL East series. First pitch at Yankee Stadium is slated for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Yankees lead 5-4

Baltimore won Wednesday’s game 6-3 for just its 2nd victory in its last 8 games. Between June 21-July 4, the Orioles registered a slash line of .214/.293/.336 (.629 OPS). On Wednesday, they exploded for 6 extra-base hits among 10 hits overall.

New York hit 2 home runs Wednesday and has 7 for this series. Across 23 games from June 6-July 2, the Yankees hit just 22 homers while averaging 3.70 runs per game.

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Orioles at Yankees projected starters

RHP Kyle Bradish vs. RHP Luis Severino

Bradish (4-4, 3.58 ERA) is lined up for his 16th start. He’s posted a 1.21 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 78 IP.

  • Current Yankees own a small-sample 1.081 OPS against him
  • Has authored a 2.88 ERA over his last 7 starts
  • Facing a right-leaning New York order and has dominated righty bats thus far in 2023 (.648 OPS allowed)

Severino (1-3, 6.3 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.65 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 through 40 IP.

  • Coming off a Saturday clunker at the St. Louis Cardinals: Loss, 4 IP, 9 R (7 ER), 9 H (2 HR), 3 BB, 2 K
  • Has allowed 4-or-more runs in 4 of 6 outings since June 2

Orioles at Yankees odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:15 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Orioles -134 (bet $134 to win $100) | Yankees +114 (bet $100 to win $114)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles -1.5 (+125) | Yankees +1.5 (-150)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Orioles at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 5, Orioles 4

Moneyline

New York is 35-18 over its last 53 home games against the Orioles and is 4-0 following its last 4 losses.

Baltimore’s run-scoring and run-prevention numbers reveal its winning percentage as flimsy. Bradish has done his best work at Camden Yards (4.46 ERA, 1.46 WHIP on the road), and the Orioles bullpen has a couple of key pieces likely not available Thursday.

Severino has pitched better than his surface ERA but not by a great deal. So, there is a risk here, but with the Yanks getting better lineup production and with a deep Yankees ‘pen in slightly better shape, consider a partial-unit play on NEW YORK (+114).

Run line/Against the spread

Both clubs have played more 1-run games than average. This writer would rather chase the plus money on the moneyline, but Run Line enthusiasts may want to back the home side on what is a fair NEW YORK +1.5 (-150) price.

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Over/Under

The Over is 37-18-1 in the last 56 series meetings in New York.

With some general pitching fade, some lean toward an improving Yankee offense and with a warm evening at Yankee Stadium, TAKE THE OVER 8.5 (-110).

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Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Baltimore Orioles (49-35) and New York Yankees (48-38) get together Wednesday for the 3rd game of a 4-game AL East series in the Bronx. First pitch at Yankee Stadium is slated for 7:05 p.m. ET (Prime Video). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Yankees lead 5-3

Baltimore has dropped the first 2 games of this series 8-4 Tuesday and 6-3 Monday and is 1-6 over its last 7 outings. The Orioles are 17-35 across their last 52 meetings with the Yanks in New York.

New York has outscored foes 53-34 while going 7-3 over its last 10 games. The Yankees have won 4 in a row and 6 of their last 8 at home.

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Orioles at Yankees projected starters

RHP Dean Kremer vs. RHP Randy Vasquez

Kremer (8-4, 5.04 ERA) is tabbed for his 18th start of the season. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 through 91 IP.

  • Current Yankees own a high-contact .771 OPS against him
  • Allowed 2 HR as part of 7 ER over just 3 innings vs. the Minnesota Twis in his last outing on June 30
  • Has allowed 7 HR and 11 ER across his last 15 IP spanning 3 starts

Vasquez (1-1, 1.74 ERA) is making his 3rd start. He has a 0.97 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 through 10 1/3 IP.

  • A 24-year-old who made his MLB debut on May 26
  • Last 3 starts were at Triple-A  as he last pitched for New York on June 6; owns a 5.11 ERA in 13 starts with Triple-A Scranton

Orioles at Yankees odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Orioles -118 (bet $118 to win $100) | Yankees +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles -1.5 (+140) | Yankees +1.5 (-170)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -118 | U: -104)

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Orioles at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 5, Orioles 4

Moneyline

Baltimore’s run-scoring and run-prevention numbers are kind, and the win-loss record has the Orioles several games too far out over their skis. But Vasquez going for New York makes for too many questions.

STEER CLEAR.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Yanks are a would-be lean here but you would want a tag closer to -150 on a New York +1.5 play, and this line has moved in the opposite direction in early action.

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Over/Under

The Under is 5-2-1 in the Orioles’ last 8 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5 and is 8-3-1 in the Yankees’ last 12 home games.

Kremer has been undone by a .326 batting average on balls in play and a 16.% rate of fly balls landing as round-trippers. Both of those figures indicate some likely regression.

Vasquez starting for the Yankees makes for some gray area, but both bullpens are solid.

Back off on the wager size perhaps, but take the UNDER 9 (-104).

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Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Baltimore Orioles (49-34) and New York Yankees (47-39) clash in a Fourth of July showdown as they continue a 4-game AL East series Tuesday. First pitch at Yankee Stadium is slated for 1:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Yankees lead 4-3

Baltimore led Monday’s opener 3-0, but eventually fell 6-3 as the Orioles lost for the 5th time in their last 6 games. The O’s are 9-23 across their last 32 games at New York.

On Monday, the Yankees hit multiple HRs (3) in a game for just the 2nd time since June 22. New York had 3 doubles as well. The power surge helped the offense overcome a 1-for-7 performance with runners in scoring position.

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Orioles at Yankees projected starters

RHP Kyle Gibson vs. RHP Clarke Schmidt

Gibson (8-5, 4.66 ERA) is making his 18th start. He’s logged a 1.38 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 96 2/3 innings.

  • Current Yankees own an aggregate .937 OPS against him, but Gibson worked around 4 BB to pitch 7 scoreless innings (2 hits allowed) against New York May 25
  • Has tallied a 2.55 ERA since May 19
  • Owns a 5.18 ERA, 1.61 WHIP on the road

Schmidt (3-6, 4.37 ERA) is lined up for his 18th start. He’s posted a 1.42 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 82 1/3 innings.

  • Faced Baltimore May 25 and allowed 1R in 5 IP
  • Current Baltimore batters own an aggregate .554 OPS against him
  • Owns a 2.41 ERA over his last 7 starts

Orioles at Yankees odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:18 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Orioles +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Yankees -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-194) | Yankees -1.5 (+160)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: +100)

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Orioles at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 5, Orioles 4

Moneyline

The Orioles went on a not-fully-supported-by-analytics 34-17 run from April 16-June 13, and there has since been plenty of fade orders for this club. In a nutshell, Baltimore’s run scoring and prevention numbers are kind, and the won-loss record has the Orioles several games too far out over their skis.

The mound duel is interesting. Gibson figures as overrated on the season, but underrated by some bloated figures of late. The opposite holds true for Schmidt. But with the trouble Gibson has had away from Camden Yards and with New York’s recent home-field dominance over the Birds, BACK THE YANKEES (-120).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS. Would want more return here.

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Over/Under

With the pitching particulars and a warm humid day in the Bronx, figure on some scoring in this game. The Over is 4-1 in the last 5 series meetings, and that’s the lean here.

But that lean on an 8.5 is only worth an account login if the price falls to -115 or better. Otherwise, PASS.

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Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Baltimore Orioles (49-33) and New York Yankees (46-39) meet Monday as they open a 4-game AL East series in the Bronx. First pitch at Yankee Stadium is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 3-3

Baltimore is coming off a 4-5 homestand. The Orioles offense had a couple bright spots in that stretch but still managed just 31 runs overall after scoring just 3 runs in a weekend set against the Minnesota Twins.

The Yankees are back at home after a 3-3 road trip. The trip, which included stops in Oakland and Baltimore, was highlighted by Monday’s likely starter Domingo German registering MLB’s 24th all-time perfect game Wednesday against the Athletics.

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Orioles at Yankees projected starters

RHP Tyler Wells vs. RHP Domingo German

Wells (6-4, 3.21 ERA) makes his 16th start and 17th appearance. He has a 0.88 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 92 2/3 innings.

  • Has allowed 2 ER in each of his last 5 starts; last time he allowed more than 2 ER was May 24 start at Yankee Stadium (5 ER)
  • Has held current Yankees to an aggregate .584 OPS with 29K against 4 BB
  • Current ERA is a would-be career-best for the 3-year veteran

German (5-5, 4.54 ERA) is tabbed for his 16th start. He has logged a 1.05 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 81.1 innings.

  • Had allowed 17 R over 5 2/3 IP in his 2 starts prior to Wednesday’s 27-up-27-down performance
  • Threw just 99 pitches in his perfecto at Oakland
  • Current Baltimore batters own an aggregate .798 OPS against him

Orioles at Yankees odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:41 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Orioles -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | Yankees -104 (bet $104 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles -1.5 (+146) | Yankees +1.5 (-176)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -106 | U: -114)

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Orioles at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 5, Orioles 4

Moneyline

There has been some fade to the Orioles since they went on a not-fully-supported-by-analytics 34-17 run from April 16-June 13. In a nutshell, their run scoring and prevention numbers are kind, and the won-loss record created by those runs has been kind. A club scoring 4.77 runs per game and allowing 4.52 is too far out over its skis if its playing even .550 ball. Baltimore enters Monday’s game with a winning percentage of .598.

For this game, mix in a fortunate-on-his-own Wells, who has benefited from a .193 batting average on balls in play. Wells logged a clunker in his last effort at Yankee Stadium (3 HRs and 5 ER allowed on May 24). Despite good numbers against Yankee batters individually, he has a 6.24 ERA in his last 5 starts against New York.

His mound opposite, German, has, last game aside, had all kinds of trouble recently. But the Yankee right-hander has been unduly banged by a high rate of fly balls leaving yards and a low left-on-base rate. Some normalization of those numbers would have his last-5-ERA pretty close to league average rather than the 5.27 that he has posted.

The Orioles are 9-22 in the last 31 meetings in New York.

BACK THE YANKEES (-104).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS. New York getting a run-and-a-half would be worthwhile at -170 or better.

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Over/Under

A warm, humid, breeze-out-to-left favors the hitters, There is some fade lean to the Baltimore starter and the New York bullpen. But these lineups have had enough 2-runs-or-less games of late to leave the 8.5 vulnerable. PASS.

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Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Baltimore Orioles (32-17) and New York Yankees (30-21) meet Thursday for the finale of a 3-game series. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: New York leads 3-2

Baltimore earned a 9-6 come-from-behind victory Wednesday. The Orioles have scored 5-plus runs in each of their last 6 games since breaking out of a mid-May mini-slump.

The Yankees are still 8-3 over their last 11 home games despite Wednesday’s setback. New York has banged out an .873 OPS in the Bronx over that stretch.

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Orioles at Yankees projected starters

RHP Kyle Gibson vs. RHP Clarke Schmidt

Gibson (5-3, 4.27 ERA) is tabbed for his 11th start. He has logged a 1.36 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 through 59 IP.

  • Current New York batters own an aggregate .901 OPS against him
  • Swinging strikes and ground balls are down from previously established career norms

Schmidt (2-4, 6.00 ERA) is tabbed for his 11th start of the season. He has a 1.62 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 through 45 IP.

  • Has held opponents to 2 runs or fewer in 3 of his last 4 starts
  • Has scuffled against lefty bats (.937 OPS allowed), and Baltimore bats a higher-than-average percentage from that side against right-handers
  • Has been hurt by a .386 batting average on balls in play (BABIP)

Orioles at Yankees odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:52 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Orioles +112 (bet $100 to win $112) | Yankees -132 (bet $132 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-172) | Yankees -1.5 (+142)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Orioles at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 5, Orioles 4

Moneyline

Peg the Orioles’ won-loss record as being a few games too rich. Baltimore is a fade candidate in games where the opponent is likable or Baltimore is fade-able in the pitching match-up.

Schmidt’s line desreves better. The Yankee righty has been hurt by the high overall BABIP, a low 62.7% left-on-base rate and a high 15.7% home runs/fly balls figure.

There is a risk because Schmidt does not have a long track record of sub-4.00 ERA pitching — especially as a starter — but with the Baltimore bullpen likely overrated and the Yankees offense coming around of late, the price on the home nine does offer some value here.

BACK THE YANKEES (-132).

Run line/Against the spread

Respecting Gibson’s ability to get deep enough in games here, and the possibility Schmidt falters against the Baltimore bats swinging from the left side. PASS.

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Over/Under

The Over 8.5 was a solid play Wednesday, and there is some overall lean toward more run-scoring in this series.

However, Schmidt’s prognosis and an inward breeze in the weather forecast — and a higher hurdle in this game — make for conflicting inputs.

PASS.

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Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Baltimore Orioles (31-17) and New York Yankees (30-20) meet Wednesday in a 7:05 p.m. ET game at Yankee Stadium. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: New York leads 3-1

Baltimore is continuing a tough AL East road trip that opened with a 3-game sweep at the Toronto Blue Jays. The Orioles led Tuesday’s series opener 4-0 before eventually falling 6-5 in 10 innings.

The Yankees got a 9th-inning, game-tying HR from OF Aaron Judge Tuesday. The New York captain has hit 8 homers in his last 9 games. As a team, the Yanks have bashed 35 HR over their last 16 games.

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Orioles at Yankees projected starters

RHP Tyler Wells vs. LHP Nestor Cortes

Wells (3-1, 2.94 ERA) is lined up for his 9th start. He has a 0.79 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 52 innings across 9 games.

  • Current Yankees batters own an aggregate .579 OPS against him, but has allowed 9 R over his last 11 IP against New York
  • Logged a 4.25 ERA in 23 starts last season

Cortes (4-2, 5.21 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 48 1/3 innings.

  • Owns a 0.90 ERA over his last 5 starts against the Orioles
  • Since 2021, owns a 2.57 ERA and 0.95 WHIP at home

Orioles at Yankees odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:03 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Orioles +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Yankees -142 (bet $142 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-160) | Yankees -1.5 (+132)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Orioles at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 6, Orioles 4

Moneyline

PASS.

Mostly on a fade-Wells lean, the Yankees are the preferred side here. Wells has had the good fortune of a .163 batting average on balls in play. Cortes and the Yankees at home — with some solid momentum — would be worth some partial-play action at -140 or better.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS. The better value is closer to the current pricing on the ML.

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Over/Under

For the most part, we’re fading the pitching all around here, both starters and both bullpens, for a 2nd straight night. Wells has more problem areas of note. But Baltimore hits left-handers quite well (.769 OPS) and that’s a red X in the Cortes column.

Baltimore’s road offense has been solid this season. The Yankees went into this series with an .834 OPS over their last 14 games.

BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-110).

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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Additional MLB coverage:
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Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Baltimore Orioles (31-16) and New York Yankees (29-20) meet Tuesday in a 7:05 p.m. ET game at Yankee Stadium. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: New York leads 2-1

Baltimore is continuing a road trip that opened with a 3-game sweep at Toronto. The Orioles are 9-3 over their last 12 games. Their .776 road OPS ranks 4th in the league.

The Yankees are back at home after a 6-1 road trip comprised of 4 games at Toronto and 3 at Cincinnati. New York pitching clocked a whiff-laden 1.96 ERA over that trip.

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Orioles at Yankees projected starters

RHP Kyle Bradish vs. RHP Gerrity Cole

Bradish (2-1, 3.90 ERA) is lined up for his 8th start. He’s posted a 1.3 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 32 1/3 innings.

  • Owns a 3.86 ERA in 2 career starts against New York (2022)
  • Has allowed just 1 ER over his last 12 2/3 IP
  • Threw a season-high 94 pitches in his last start on Wednesday

Cole (5-0, 2.01 ERA) is tabbed for his 11th start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 62 2/3 innings

  • Has a 3.00 ERA across his last 5 starts against Baltimore
  • Since 2021, owns a 2.82 ERA and 0.99 WHIP at home

Orioles at Yankees odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:25 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Orioles +154 (bet $100 to win $154) | Yankees -184 (bet $184 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-144) | Yankees -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -114 | U: -106)

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Orioles at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 6, Orioles 4

Moneyline

PASS.

The Yanks are a lean, but the price is a bit high.

Run line/Against the spread

Peg the Yankees being a couple ofgames under their “should-be” record and the opposite being the case for the Orioles. With a likable Over, getting home side by with a 2-run cushion is the lean. But a suggested value point here is +125 on the play. If the Yankee side of the run line brings less return, PASS.

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Over/Under

Fading the pitching all around here, both starters and both bullpens. Cole has benefited from some generous rates around the margins. The same goes perhaps a bit less so for Bradish but he’s coming off the relatively high pitch count. Both bullpens have benefited from high left-on-base rates and figure to be sporting artificially depressed ERAs.

Baltimore’s road offense has been strong. The Yankees own an .834 OPS over their last 14 games.

BACK THE OVER 7.5 (-114).

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
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BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup

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