Tag: Orioles Royals odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Baltimore Orioles (12-6) and Kansas City Royals (12-7) open a 3-game series at Kauffman Stadium Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Orioles lead 2-1

The Royals are coming off a 2-1 loss at the Chicago White Sox Wednesday, failing to cash as -164 favorites. They have won 3 of their last 5 games and are 12-7 on the run line this season.

The Orioles have won 4 straight games, closing as favorites in each. They covered in all 4 and are 11-7 on the run line this season. Baltimore is coming off a 4-2 win over the Minnesota Twins Wednesday.

Orioles at Royals projected starters

RHP Dean Kremer vs. RHP Alec Marsh

Kremer (0-1, 4.96 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 16 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 6 ER, 10 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 11-5 home loss to Milwaukee Brewers Saturday
  • 2023 road splits: 5-3, 3.73 ERA (70 IP, 29 ER — 9 HR), 21 BB, 68 K in 13 starts

Marsh (2-0, 4.32 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 5.4 K/9 in 16 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 5 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 11-7 road win over New York Mets Saturday
  • Royals are 3-0 in his starts
  • 2023 home splits: 1-4, 6.59 ERA (27 1/3 IP, 20 ER — 5 HR), 17 BB, 32 K in 3 starts and 4 relief appearances

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Orioles at Royals odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:15 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Orioles -136 (bet $136 to win $100) | Royals +116 (bet $100 to win $116)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles -1.5 (+114) | Royals +1.5 (-134)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Orioles at Royals picks and predictions

Prediction

Royals 6, Orioles 4

Moneyline

BET ROYALS (+116).

Kansas City has been terrific with Marsh on the mound, winning every start. In those starts, the Royals beat the Orioles 4-1, the White Sox 3-0 and the Mets 11-7.

Kansas City has also won 8 straight games at home and is 8-2 straight up at Kauffman Stadium. The Orioles have been surging as of late, and while 12-6 on the season, they are just 3-2 in their last 5 road games.

With those trends in mind and the value on the home underdogs, back ROYALS (+116).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Orioles have won 11 of 12 games by more than 1 run, so if they come out on top, it’ll likely be by 2 or more, making the Kansas City value better on the moneyline than the run line.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 9 (-108).

The Orioles have gone Over in 7 of their last 8 games, scoring at least 6 runs in 3 of their last 4. Baltimore is 11-5-2 O/U on the season with the series between these 2 going 1-1-1 earlier in the year.

The Royals are 6-12-1 O/U but have gone Over in their last 2 at home, scoring a combined 24 runs in those 2 games against the Astros. They have scored at least 5 runs in 4 of 7 home games.

Back OVER 9 (-108).

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Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Baltimore Orioles (20-10) and Kansas City Royals (8-23) put a lid on their 3-game series with a Thursday matinee at Kauffman Stadium. First pitch is slated for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

Baltimore is 12-3 with a 3.43 ERA since April 16, but the Orioles were blanked 6-0 in Wednesday’s game.

The Royals snapped a 10-game home losing skid with Wednesday’s triumph. Kansas City outhit Baltimore 13-6 and tied a season-high with 6 extra-base hits.

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Orioles at Royals projected starters

RHP Grayson Rodriguez vs. RHP Jordan Lyles

Rodiguez (1-0, 4.07 ERA) is making his 6th start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 12.6 K/9 in 24 1/3 IP.

  • Has a 3.60 ERA over 15 IP through the first 3 road starts of his career
  • Hasn’t pitched 10 scoreless innings over his last 2 turns, both against the Detroit Tigers

Lyles (0-5, 6.11 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 35 1/3 IP.

  • Coming off a clunker that saw him yield 7 runs in 4 IP against the Minnesota Twins on Friday
  • Velocity is down a tick, and Lyles has been frequently barreled up so far; he has allowed multiple home runs in 4 of his last 5 starts

Orioles at Royals odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:08 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Orioles -164 (bet $164 to win $100) | Royals +138 (bet $100 to win $138)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles -1.5 (+100) | Royals +1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Orioles at Royals picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 6, Royals 5

Moneyline

Pitching aside, Kansas City is the value side in this series, and the Royals were a solid play Wednesday. However, the starting pitching match-up for Thursday’s series finale is an equalizer. Rodriguez is coming off such a strong start, and K.C. has struggled against righties (.619 OPS).

Lyles is not a pitcher that can be counted on right now.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

No arguments to be made that have the Royals coming out any shinier. A higher score is the likable side of the total, and the pricing here is actually a little more Baltimore-favorable.

AVOID.

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Over/Under

The Over is 10-3 in the last 13 series meetings in Kansas City.

There is certainly some regression due from Baltimore’s bullpen (2.86 ERA), Lyles is iffy, and there is at least the dodgy road-performance angle for Rodriguez.

On a warmed-up afternoon with a double-digit breeze favoring the batters (both bullpens and Lyles yield more fly balls than average), consider the Over. The number has drifted the way of this play overnight, so dial this back to a partial-unit play on the OVER 9.5 (-110).

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Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Baltimore Orioles (20-9) and Kansas City Royals (7-23) meet Wednesday to continue a 3-game set. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is slated for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Baltimore leads 1-0

The Orioles took Tuesday’s series opener 13-7 and have won 3 games  in a row. Since April 16, Baltimore is 12-2 and over that stretch have compiled a tidy 3.21 ERA.

Over roughly that same stretch, the Royals have struggled mightily. Since April 14, Kansas City is 3-14, including 0-7 at home.

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Orioles at Royals projected starters

RHP Kyle Gibson vs. RHP Zack Greinke

Gibson (4-0, 3.93 ERA) is making his 7th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 34 1/3 IP.

  • Since 2021, owns a 5.04 ERA on the road (vs. 3.63 ERA at home)
  • Has held current Kansas City batters to an aggregate .486 OPS

Greinke (0-4, 6.1 ERA) is tabbed for his 7th start. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 in 31 IP.

  • Current Baltimore batters own an aggregate .792 OPS against him
  • Owns an 8.24 ERA, 1.47 WHIP over his last 4 starts

Orioles at Royals odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Orioles -158 (bet $158 to win $100) | Royals +134 (bet $100 to win $134)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles -1.5 (+104) | Royals +1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -114 | U: -106)

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Orioles at Royals picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 5, Royals 4

Moneyline

There is some analytics spread in the pitching here — early-season results vs. expected, based on support numbers — that favors Kansas City. Both in the starting and bullpen departments. Add in some Orioles-too-far-over-their-skis and Royals-underperforming angles, and Kansas City is the value side in this contest. … Just maybe not at this price. Especially in going against the grains of the recent play on both sides, we should want a better price here. PASS, unless the K.C. side gets to +140 or better.

Run line/Against the spread

Gibson having a .100 batting average on balls in play when runners are in scoring position. Greinke pitching around an overall .320 BABIP (.368 with RISP). The Kansas City bullpen working around a .328 BABIP, and the Baltimore ‘pen a .277 figure. Gibson being a road struggler at times and Baltimore owning a 7-2 record in 1-run games.

Along with a solid price on the Run Line, it all plays into a strong ROYALS +1.5 (-115) wager.

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Over/Under

Plenty of reasons to fall on either side of this figure. Or on it. PASS.

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Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Baltimore Orioles (24-33) hit the road to face the Kansas City Royals (18-37) Thursday in the opener of a 4-game set at Kauffman Stadium. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Orioles vs. Royals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Baltimore leads 2-1 and outscored Kansas City 14-9 in a 3-game home series May 8-9.

The Orioles rolled over the Chicago Cubs Tuesday in a 9-3 rout before rain gave them an extra off-day Wednesday.

K.C. awakened from 2 straight shutouts to throttle the Toronto Blue Jays 8-4 Wednesday. The Royals had won just 2 of their previous 10 outings and are 2-7 against the AL East this season. It’s expected to be 81 degrees with the wind traveling out to left field at 7.4 mph with no rain in sight.

Orioles at Royals projected starters

RHP Jordan Lyles vs. LHP Kris Bubic

Lyles (3-4, 4.50 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.48 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 62 IP.

  • Is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in his last 3 starts against the Royals over the last 2 years.
  • Has an extreme home-road split with a 6.03 road ERA this year. He’s 1-1 with a 2.93 ERA at home.
  • Current Royals hitters have a .281 batting average and a weak .294 expected weighted on-base average in 67 plate appearances.

Bubic (0-3, 9.33 ERA) makes his 7th start (8th appearance) this year. He has a 2.07 WHIP, 6.9 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 in 18 1/3 IP.

  • Allowed 2 runs on 6 hits, 1 walk and 4 K in 5 1/3 innings against the Orioles last year.
  • Coming off his best start with 5 scoreless innings, 5 hits and 3 walks allowed while fanning 3 against the Houston Astros Saturday.
  • Current Orioles hitters have a .241 batting average and a .326 weighted on-base average in 33 plate appearances.
  • His .322 BABIP this season suggests he’s a bit unlucky.

Orioles at Royals odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:10 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Orioles -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Royals -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles -1.5 (+145) | Royals +1.5 (-180)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Orioles at Royals picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 4, Royals 3

Money line

This is the epitome of a pick ’em between two perennial dumpster fires. The Orioles struggle against lefties, with a .222 batting clip, as opposed to .232 against righties, but they have an edge on the bump.

Baltimore also has a massive advantage in the bullpen with a 4th-best 3.11 ERA, as opposed to KC’s 3rd-worst 4.86 ERA. Baltimore has had 2 of the last 3 days off and has won 5 of its last 10. KC has been shut out in 3 of its last 7. We’re going to LEAN ORIOLES (-110).

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Run line/Against the spread

There’s no way I’m betting -180 on the Royals to stay within 1 run, and I don’t like taking sub-.500 teams to win by 2 runs unless it’s beefier than +145. If you’re tailing with me on the O’s to win this one, let’s double up and run with the value play ORIOLES FIRST 9 INNINGS (+107).

It’s worth mentioning that Orioles OF Cedric Mullins is 3-for-5 with 1 homer and 2 doubles against Bubic in his career. He also homered in their last game. It is a lefty-on-lefty matchup, though, and a small sample size. His prop line is OVER 1.5 total bases (+102). There’s not enough value for me to take it as he’s hitting just .236 this year, but it’s worth consideration.

Over/Under

The Under has cashed in the last 5 games for the Orioles against teams with a sub-.400 winning percentage. The Under hit in 2 of the first 3 games between these teams in 2022, and it has hit in 6 of the last 8 meetings between these sides over the last couple of seasons. LEAN UNDER 9.5 (-110).

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Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Baltimore Orioles (28-62) visit the Kansas City Royals (37-53) Saturday at Kauffman Stadium for the second of their three-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Orioles vs. White Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Kansas City crushed Baltimore 9-2 in the first game of the series with Royals leadoff hitter 2B Whit Merrifield going 4-for-4 with a double and three RBIs.

Season series: Royals lead 1-0.

Baltimore hasn’t officially announced its starter but FanGraphs and Rotowire project Orioles RHP Jorge Lopez as Saturday’s starter.

Lopez is 2-12 with a 5.95 ERA (84 2/3 IP, 56 ER), 1.63 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 across 18 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 12-1, with 4 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 4 K vs. the Chicago White Sox July 9.
  • 2021 road splits: 1-7 with a 6.39 ERA (43 2/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.70 WHIP and 2.0 K/BB rate in nine starts.

RHP Brady Singer is Kansas City’s projected starter. Singer is 3-6 with a 4.52 ERA (85 2/3 IP, 43 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 over 18 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 6 K in Kansas City’s 5-2 loss to the Cincinnati Reds July 7.
  • 2021 home splits: 2-3 with a 3.99 ERA (49 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.45 WHIP and 2.8 K/BB rate in 10 starts.

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Orioles at Royals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:15 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Orioles +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Royals -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Orioles +1.5 (-155) | Royals -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Royals 8, Orioles 5

Money line (ML)

BET the ROYALS (-150) for 1 unit because more than 85% of the cash is on K.C.’s money line (according to Pregame.com), and a majority of those wagers have to be “sharp” money given Saturday’s sports slate.

For instance, round three of The Open Championship tees off Saturday morning, and Game 5 of the NBA Finals tips off later that night. So it’s not like your “average Joe” is betting the Orioles-Royals game.

Furthermore, Singer’s pitching peripherals suggest his basic numbers could see some progression in the second half of the season; whereas Lopez’s advanced pitching splits paint an even bleaker picture of his 2021 campaign.

Singer’s ERA estimators (xFIP, FIP and SIERA) are all lower than his standard ERA while Lopez grades in the 21st percentile or worse in exit velocity, expected wOBA, hard-hit rate, chase rate and whiff rate.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS since we don’t know for sure who’s starting this game, and K.C. is only 6-12 in Singer’s 18 starts this year so the Royals -1.5 (+125) isn’t enticing enough.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-115) for a half unit because the Royals are 24-18-2 O/U at home this year, and the Over has cashed in eight of Baltimore’s previous nine games.

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