The 4th and final major of the year is here and it should be a great one. The game’s best will descend upon Hoylake for The Open Championship at Royal Liverpool, the 151st playing of this historic tournament. Below, we look at The Open Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
Rory McIlroy comes into the week as the betting favorite (+700) to win following his victory Sunday in the Genesis Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club. McIlroy is returning to the site of his 2014 Open Championship win where he edged Rickie Fowler and Sergio Garcia, who finished tied for 2nd. Scottie Scheffler, seeking his 1st Open, is the 2nd favorite at +800, followed by Jon Rahm (+1200), defending champ Cameron Smith (+1600) and Brooks Koepka (+2000).
Royal Liverpool is a par 71 and will play at 7,313 yards this week. It’s the 13th time this venue has hosted The Open and 1st since 2014 when McIlroy won by 2 shots. Several changes have been made to the course since then, including the 10th hole being converted into a par 4 instead of a par 5. The 17th hole is also a new par 3, playing 136 yards.
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The Open Championship – Expert picks
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 11:10 a.m. ET.
Rory McIlroy (+700)
I’ll keep betting on McIlroy to win another major until he inevitably gets it done. He’s come ridiculously close in his last 7 major starts, finishing in the top 10 in 6 of them with the only exception being a shocking missed cut at the Masters this year. He finished 3rd in last year’s Open, but he was an eagle away from tying Smith on the 18th hole at St. Andrews. Following his win at the Scottish Open, all aspects of McIlroy’s game are firing right now.
Tommy Fleetwood (+2200)
Just continue riding the Fleetwood wave, even if his odds are considerably shorter now than they were at the start of the year. He finished 6th at the Scottish Open, but was squarely in contention on Sunday until he faded down the stretch with a final-round 72. He’s a fantastic links player, finishing no worse than 33rd in his last 5 Open starts, including 2 top-5s in that span.
Tyrrell Hatton (+2500)
Hatton was another contender at the Scottish Open, finishing tied with Fleetwood for 6th place. He was quite frustrated on Sunday and knew he should have finished better than he did, but it was a well-rounded effort from the Englishman, who gained strokes on the field in every category – from tee-to-green to putting. He finished 11th in The Open last year and 6th in 2019.
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The Open Championship picks – Contenders
Tony Finau (+5000)
Since his win at the Mexico Open, Finau has struggled. He’s missed the cut twice in his last 6 starts and hasn’t finished better than T-23 in that span. However, he’s an absolute stud in The Open Championship, finishing between 3rd and 28th each time in his last 6 starts. At +5000, Finau is a good value to win and he’s certainly worth a bet to finish in the top 20 for the 5th time in 7 Open starts.
Cameron Young (+5000)
I’ve pretty much avoided betting Young all year but now might be the time to take the plunge. The 2nd-year pro has had a disappointing 2023 season with only 4 top-10s after posting 7 of them last year. He finished runner-up in the 2022 Open Championship and just tied for 6th at the John Deere Classic, so he could be riding some momentum into this week.
Tom Kim (+4500)
Kim isn’t the most experienced links player, but he’s shown me enough in the last year-plus. He finished 47th at the 2022 Open and has results of 3rd and 6th in the last 2 Scottish Opens – and that’s after making a sloppy double on 18 Sunday to fall down the leaderboard. He wasn’t great off the tee last week, but his iron play was strong and he putted well, too.
The Open Championship picks – Long shots
Min Woo Lee (+6600)
Lee is one of the longest hitters, which will allow him to keep the driver in the bag often this week and instead pull a driving iron off the tee. That should give him an edge when it comes to hitting fairways. In 2 starts on links courses this year, he’s finished 2nd at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and 35th in the Scottish Open. He tied for 21st in The Open last year, too.
Brian Harman (+12500)
Harman is sneaky good on links courses. He’s finished 6th and 19th in the last 2 Open Championships and just posted a 12th-place finish in the Scottish Open last week. His recent form has been great, too, finishing 2nd and 9th in his previous 2 starts before the Scottish Open. He’s a worthwhile long shot this week at Hoylake.
Corey Conners (+9000)
In Conners’ last 2 Open starts, he’s finished 15th and 28th. He just finished 19th at the Scottish Open after coming in 9th in the Travelers Championship last month. Conners is a world-class ball striker and his iron play should be an advantage this week.
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Golfweek:
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