The Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-2 overall, 4-2 Big 12) host the Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-5, 2-5) in a conference game Saturday at Boone Pickens Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET. Below, we analyze the Texas Tech-Oklahoma State college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The Cowboys are No. 22 overall in the Amway Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Texas Tech at Oklahoma State: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 5:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Texas Tech +300 (bet $100 to win $300) | Oklahoma State -385 (bet $385 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Texas Tech +11 (-121) | Oklahoma State -11 (-100)
- Over/Under: 55.5 (O: -106 | U: -115)
Texas Tech at Oklahoma State: Three things to know
- Texas Tech had a bye last week following a 24-23 home win vs. Baylor Nov. 14 as a 1-point underdog.
- Oklahoma State got trounced in the Bedlam game against Oklahoma 41-13 last week. The Cowboys were outgained by 246 total yards, started the game down 21-0 and never really had a chance to win.
- The Red Raiders have beaten the Cowboys in back-to-back games and have covered five of six meetings, including four straight ATS wins.
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Texas Tech at Oklahoma State: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Oklahoma State 28, Texas Tech 24
Money line (ML)
It’s difficult backing a double-digit favorite that consistently hurts its own chances as much as Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are minus-4 in turnover differential, 102nd in penalties committed per game and are ranked 115th in havoc allowed. Also, this is an awesome spot for Texas Tech.
First of all, I wonder if there is a hangover effect for Oklahoma State after getting punched in the mouth on national TV against in-state rival Oklahoma? Oklahoma State has dropped both its games to Big 12 powerhouses—Texas and Oklahoma—and will need some help to get into the conference title game.
Second, Texas Tech has played really well vs. Oklahoma State recently (see above) and head coach Matt Wells is 9-2 over his career in games immediately following a bye week, which includes his six years at Utah State.
There’s a legitimate shot Texas Tech pulls off an outright upset, but it is getting too many points and I am hitting the Red Raiders plus points harder. I lean TEXAS TECH (+300) for a quarter-unit.
Against the spread (ATS)
Most of the ATS handicap is in the money line section, but obviously, we are betting TEXAS TECH +11 (-121). However, I’d wait until the vig was reduced regardless of which way this number goes. Obviously, getting 11.5 points is preferable, but as long as we don’t procrastinate too long and this number drops to an even 10, it would be the worth the wait.
Additionally, the line movement gives me more confidence in Texas Tech. Oklahoma State opened up as a 12.5-point favorite, but the line has dropped despite 97% of the money and 89% of the bets placed are on the Cowboys, according to Pregame.com.
The Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings (all Texas Tech covers) and the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. I am not really a trends bettor, but that intel makes me feel better about backing the underdog. GIMME TEXAS TECH +11 (-121) for 1.5 units.
Over/Under (O/U)
Oklahoma State’s defense has been one of the better units in the country aside from its games against Texas and Oklahoma.
Also, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech’s combined Over/Under record is 5-10 O/U this season. However, the Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings and I don’t have a great feel for this total. PASS.
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