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The Dallas Mavericks battle the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 6 of the Western Conference semifinals Saturday. Tip from American Airlines Center in Dallas is set for 8 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Thunder vs. Mavericks odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.
The Mavericks took Game 5 on the road 104-92, winning outright as 4.5-point underdogs Wednesday. G Luka Doncic tallied a game-high 31 points. They are 3-2 against the spread (ATS) in the series and 7-4 ATS in the playoffs. Dallas covered in every 1st-round win and failed to cover in every loss in its 4-2 series victory vs. the LA Clippers. The Mavs finished 48-34 ATS in the regular season.
The Thunder split the first 2 games of this series at home and then split the next 2 in Dallas. Oklahoma City is 1-1 straight up and ATS as an underdog in the series. OKC swept the New Orleans Pelicans in the 1st round and covered in 3 of the 4 games, closing as a favorite in each game. It ended the regular season with a 46-36 ATS record and, with the playoffs included, is 22-22-1 ATS on the road.
Thunder at Mavericks odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:59 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Thunder +142 (bet $100 to win $142) | Mavericks -168 (bet $168 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Thunder +3.5 (-110) | Mavericks -3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 208.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Thunder at Mavericks key injuries
Thunder
- None
Mavericks
- None
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
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Thunder at Mavericks picks and predictions
Prediction
Mavericks 106, Thunder 101
Moneyline
PASS.
The Mavericks should close out the series and are 3-2 straight up at home in the playoffs. At -168, there’s no value in betting them to win outright. The only value on the moneyline is the Thunder at +142.
The home team’s spread is the preferred play here.
Against the spread
BET MAVERICKS -3.5 (-110).
The Mavericks have been incredible against Western Conference teams, posting a 39-24 ATS record so far this season with the playoffs included, and they have continued to perform well for bettors in the postseason. Dallas has covered 5 of its last 7 games and is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games as a favorite.
The Thunder are a young team and struggled at home in Game 5, shooting 10-for-40 from deep. They could struggle on the road in a rowdy Dallas environment. Oklahoma City is just 1-3 ATS in its last 4 games and rely too heavily on F Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has tallied 64 points in the last 2 games.
Expect Dallas to continue to reward bettors and take MAVERICKS -3.5 (-110).
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 208.5 (-108).
NBA Playoffs bring high-level defense as games matter more, and both teams have seen the struggles that come with enhanced defensive intensity.
The Thunder were 46-35-1 O/U in the regular season and are 2-7 O/U in the playoffs. They have scored Under 100 points in 3 games and Under 102 points in 5 of 9. Dallas is 1-4 O/U in its last 5 and was 36-46 O/U on the season. It is 4-7 O/U in the playoffs.
Given the recent trends for both teams in the playoffs, take UNDER 208.5 (-108).
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