Nuggets Mavericks odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Denver Nuggets (47-20) take on the Dallas Mavericks (38-29) Sunday with tip-off from American Airlines Center set for 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nuggets vs. Mavericks odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Season series: Nuggets lead 2-0

The Nuggets have won 5 in a row and 9 of 10. They took care of the San Antonio Spurs 117-106 Friday and covered their 10.5-point spread. C Nikola Jokic had 31 points, 7 boards and 5 assists, which seems like a light line for him. G Jamal Murray nearly had a triple-double with 15 points, 10 boards and 8 assists.

The Mavs came up short 126-119 at Oklahoma City Thursday. They covered as 9.5-point underdogs as G Luka Doncic (ankle) sat out. G Kyrie Irving did all he could with 36 points and 12 dimes. Doncic is questionable for this game, but he was able to practice Saturday, which is a good sign.

Nuggets at Mavericks odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:26 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Nuggets -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Mavericks +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets -3.5 (-115) | Mavericks +3.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 229.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Nuggets at Mavericks key injuries

Nuggets

None

Mavericks

G Luka Doncic (hamstring) questionable
G Dante Exum (foot) questionable
G Josh Green (ankle) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Nuggets at Mavericks and predictions

Prediction

Nuggets 121, Mavericks 117

Moneyline

The Nuggets haven’t been to Dallas since Nov. 20, 2022, when they won 98-97. They have won the last 3 meetings overall. The 2 from this season were by 130-104 and 125-114 scores.

It’s tough to beat a team 3 times in a season, especially when this game is on the road, but the Nuggets are ablaze right now.

You can play the Nuggets if -165 isn’t out of your price range. I’m going with the spread instead. But I will sprinkle on a LUKA DONCIC TRIPLE-DOUBLE (+210). He had a string of 7 straight games with a trip-dub snapped due to injury in his last game. No one comes close to matching his trip-dub swag other than Jokic. He’ll put on a show.

Against the spread

Take the NUGGETS -3.5 (-115) here. They’re 7-3 ATS over the last 10 and have won and covered in each of the meetings with Dallas this season.

Over/Under

The Mavs are 6-4 O/U over the last 10, and the Nuggets are 4-6. The Over is 1-1 in their 2 matchups, and this is the smallest total – likely because the books aren’t certain Doncic will play. I expect him to, so let’s take advantage. Dallas still dropped 119 and 109 mostly without Luka the last 2 games.

Take the OVER 229.5 (-110).

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Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Denver Nuggets (9-6) play the 2nd game of 2 at the Dallas Mavericks (9-6) Sunday at American Airlines Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Nuggets vs. Mavericks odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Nuggets are on a 2-game skid, including a 127-99 loss as 10-point underdogs at the Mavericks Friday. The lack of defense hurt Denver as it was outscored in every quarter, including 44-28 in the 2nd. It didn’t help that 3 starters were out — leading scorer C Nikola Jokic (20.8 points per game) and PG Jamal Murray (16.5 PPG) were in health and safety protocols, while F Aaron Gordon (14.5 PPG) didn’t play due to a non-COVID 19 illness.

Dallas wraps up a 5-game homestand in which is it 3-1 straight up but just 1-3 against the spread (1-3). G Luka Doncic carried the Mavs in the Friday victory — the lone cover in the stand — finishing with 33 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists, while F Christian Wood added 28 points off the bench.

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Nuggets at Mavericks odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:09 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Nuggets +345 (bet $100 to win $345) | Mavericks -450 (bet $450 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +9.5 (-105) | Mavericks -9.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 217.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Nuggets at Mavericks key injuries

Nuggets

F Aaron Gordon (illness) questionable
G Bones Hyland (hip) probable
C Nikola Jokic (health and safety protocols) out
PG Jamaal Murray (health and safety protocols) out

Mavericks

F Reggie Bullock (neck) probable
F Maxi Kleeber (back) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Nuggets at Mavericks picks and predictions

Prediction

Mavericks 118, Nuggets 103

Moneyline

AVOID.

The Mavericks (-450) should win, but it’s not worth risking 4.5 times your potential profit.

The Mavericks have been playing at an extremely high level with an MVP favorite in Doncic and a Sixth Man of the Year favorite in F Tim Hardaway Jr. Their inconsistency on offense does worry, me but their defense has been much improved this season, which makes up for them being a top-heavy team.

Against the spread

BET MAVERICKS -9.5 (-115).

Doncic is simply too good for the Nuggets to stop. They have no one who can really guard him and their team is far too reliant on Jokic. The Mavericks seem like they are on a mission after losing in the Western Conference Finals last season. Meanwhile, the Nuggets, while they have looked solid, have not looked as spectacular as many fans expected. Expect another double-digit win for the Mavericks in this one.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 217.5 (-110).

The Nuggets have a good offense and a terrible defense, and the Mavericks have just the opposite. The offense for the Mavericks revolves around Doncic, which while risky, has been working very well for them as he continues his MVP campaign. This bet could honestly go either way, but with the Denver’s 2 best offensive players in Jokic and Murray out, the Under is the way to go.

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Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Denver Nuggets (9-5) visit the American Airlines Center Friday to take on the Dallas Mavericks (8-6). Tip is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Nuggets vs. Mavericks odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Nuggets are coming into this game down many of their key scorers, including 2-time MVP C Nikola Jokic, who leads the team in points, rebounds and assists.

The Nuggets are 6-8 against the spread (ATS) this season and 5-4 straight up on the road. Denver has failed to cover in 4 of its last 5 games. It is 0-1 ATS in its last 10 as an underdog.

The Mavs are led by star G Luka Doncic, arguably the MVP frontrunner at this point in the season, Doncic is averaging 34.4 points, 7.8 assists, and 8.8 rebounds per game.

Crazy enough, the Mavs have failed to cover 8 straight games and are 0-9-1 ATS in their last 10 despite winning 6 of those straight up. Dallas is 8-6 O/U this season as well.

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Nuggets at Mavericks odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:22 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Nuggets +310 (bet $100 to win $310) | Mavericks -400 (bet $400 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +9.5 (-120) | Mavericks -9.5 (+100)
Over/Under (O/U): 215.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Nuggets at Mavericks key injuries

Nuggets

F Aaron Gordon (non-Covid illness) quesitonable
C Nikola Jokic (health and safety protocols) out
G Jamal Murray (health and safety protocols) out

Mavericks

F Maxi Kleber (back) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Nuggets at Mavericks picks and predictions

Prediction

Mavericks 112, Nuggets 102

Moneyline

PASS.

Given Dallas is at home and has struggled over their last 10 games, the -400 is unplayable. Denver +325 has some value, but not enough to consider with Murray and Jokic out.

Against the spread

BET MAVERICKS -9.5 (+100).

The Mavericks’ luck ATS should come to an end soon, and the Jokic-less Nuggets should struggle to score and keep pace with Doncic and company.

Denver’s key strength isn’t in its rebounding or turnovers but rather efficiency, and without its 2 key distributors, I expect them to struggle to generate offense.

The Nuggets are also an awful defensive team, ranking 23rd in defensive rating. The Mavericks sit 5th and should be able to heavily limit what a shorthanded Nuggets offense can generate.

Back the Mavericks -9.5 (+100).

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 215.5 (-110).

The Mavericks rank last in the NBA in pace, and there’s really no reason they should want to push the pace.

The Nuggets, on the other hand, already sit 13th, so there isn’t much improvement to be had there. Even if G Bones Hyland and company push the pace, Dallas should halt those efforts.

Neither team grabs many offensive boards, and the Mavs have the fourth-lowest turnover rate which means possessions will likely be longer as well. Dallas had gone Under in 2 straight and in 4 of its last 6.

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Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Dallas Mavericks (18-18) host the Denver Nuggets (18-16) Monday at the American Airlines Center for an 8:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Nuggets vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Denver has won three consecutive road games, going 2-1 against the spread (ATS). The Nuggets won at the Los Angeles Clippers, Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets.

Since Dec. 22, the Nuggets are 3-2 straight-up (SU), 2-3 ATS and 1-4 O/U with the 13th-best non-garbage time net rating at plus-1.3 points per 100 possessions, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Dallas has won back-to-back road games, winning at the Sacramento Kings 112-96 Friday and, in PG Luka Doncic‘s return, at the Oklahoma City Thunder 95-86 Sunday.

Since Dec. 21, the Mavs are 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS and 3-4 O/U with the 10th-best non-garbage time net rating at plus-10.0 points per 100 possessions.

This is the regular-season rubber match between these teams as the home side won and covered the first two meetings with the O/U going 1-1.

Nuggets at Mavericks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:34 p.m. ET.

Money line: Nuggets +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | Mavericks -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +2.5 (-105) | Mavericks -2.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 213.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Nuggets at Mavericks key injuries

Nuggets

SF Vlatko Cancar (nasal fracture) probable
PF Jeff Green (health and safety protocols) out
PG Bones Hyland (health and safety protocols) questionable
PG Monte Morris (health and safety protocols) out

Mavericks

PG Trey Burke (health and safety protocols) out
C Boban Marjanovic (health and safety protocols) out
PG Frank Ntilikina (thigh) questionable
PF Kristaps Porzingis (health and safety protocols) out
G Isaiah Thomas (health and safety protocols) out

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Nuggets at Mavericks odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Mavericks 107, Nuggets 102

Money line

PASS with a “lean” to the Mavericks (-150) because I only “lean” toward Dallas laying the points and would much prefer to bet the Mavs outright.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to the MAVERICKS -2.5 (-120) because they are a lot healthier than the Nuggets.

Don’t sleep on the absence of Morris for Denver. He is second on the Nuggets in adjusted on/off net rating at plus-14.5 points per 100 possessions (per CTG), which grades out in the 95th percentile of point guards.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 213.5 (-115) for 1 unit because there’s some reverse line movement in the betting market of the total.

According to Pregame.com and the Yahoo! Sports app, a vast majority of the market is betting the Over in this game, but the total has been lowered from 214 on the look-ahead line.

Both teams rank in the bottom 10 of points per game, the top 10 of points per game allowed and the bottom eight of pace.

Also, Dallas has gone Under the total in its past seven games as a favorite and Denver have gone Under the total in four of its past five games overall.

UNDER 213.5 (-115) is my favorite wager in this game.

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Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Dallas Mavericks (8-4) hosts the Denver Nuggets (9-4) Monday for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off at American Airlines Center. Below, we look at the Nuggets vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Denver has won five straight games, three of which were against playoff teams from last season. The Nuggets hammered the Portland Trail Blazers last night 124-95 as 5.5-point home favorites. Denver is 7-6 ATS and 3-10 O/U with the fourth-best net rating (plus-5.6).

Dallas has won four of its past five games with the latest being a 123-109 victory at the San Antonio Spurs as 2.5-point road favorites.

The Mavs’ offense is all on Luka Doncic‘s shoulders. Doncic has the highest usage rate in the Association and the third-highest assist rate. Dallas is 4-8 ATS and 3-8-1 O/U with the 21st-ranked net rating (minus-1.8).

The Nuggets destroyed the Mavs 106-75 in their first meeting this season, Oct. 29. Denver outscored Dallas 50-22 in paint points and held the Mavs to just 29.5% field goal shooting.

Nuggets at Mavericks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3 p.m. ET.

Money line: Nuggets +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Mavericks -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +4.5 (-105) | Mavericks -4.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 208.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Nuggets at Mavericks key injuries

Nuggets

SG Will Barton (back) doubtful
SF Michael Porter Jr. (back) out

Mavericks

PF Maxi Kleber (oblique) out

Nuggets at Mavericks odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Nuggets 104, Mavericks 99

Money line

Slight “LEAN” to the NUGGETS (+160) for a tiny wager because I “like” Denver getting points in this spot and will “sprinkle” on the underdog’s money line. Furthermore, the Mavs have gotten stomped in the few times they’ve played a good team this season.

According to CleaningTheGlass.com, which removes garbage time from its stat tracking, Dallas has an NBA-worst minus-24.3 net points per 100 possessions vs. teams in the top-10 of net efficiency.

That said, Denver’s spread is a much wiser wager so if it’s either or go with the Nuggets plus the points.

Against the spread

Definitely BET the NUGGETS +4.5 (-105) heavier than or instead of Denver’s money line. Each team has only played three games vs. opponents in the top-10 of net efficiency.

But, Denver has a plus-10.7 spread differential (ranked second) in those games and Dallas has a minus-15.3 spread differential (ranked 29th), according to CleaningTheGlass.com.

Also, more than 85% of the cash wagered is on the Mavericks (according to Pregame.com), which has steamed them up from a 4-point favorite on the opener to the current number. Typically, a contrarian mindset is a profitable foundation for successfully betting on sports.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the UNDER 208.5 (-112) because more money is on the Under whereas more bets have been placed on the Over (according to Pregame.com). Generally, it’s wise to follow the money in sports betting especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.

Also, the Mavs just don’t score easy buckets. Dallas scores the fourth-fewest points off of turnovers, second-chance points and fastbreak points per game and the second-fewest paint points per game.

However, I can only “LEAN” to the UNDER 208.5 (-112) because the probable absence of Barton hurts Denver’s defense more so than its offense. CleaningTheGlass.com grades Barton in the 97th percentile of on/off rating for wings.

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Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Monday’s Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks NBA betting odds and lines, with basketball picks, tips and predictions.

The Dallas Mavericks (8-8) host the Denver Nuggets (9-7) Monday at American Airlines Center for an 8:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we analyze the Nuggets-Mavericks NBA odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

Denver is coming off back-to-back overtime victories at the Phoenix Suns, and has won four of its past five games (4-1 against the spread). The only loss in those five games was against a red-hot Utah Jazz team, which currently has won eight in a row.

The Mavericks have been and continue to deal with a myriad of COVID-19 issues that have caused several key contributors to miss time. Dallas is 2-3 over its past five games (2-3 ATS), and was drubbed 133-108 at home by the Houston Rockets as a 7-point favorite Saturday.

Dallas fought back from a 12-point, third-quarter deficit to force overtime in a 124-117 win at Denver in their only meeting this season (Jan. 7). The Mavericks have covered four of their past five games against the Nuggets, including winning the last two (3-2 straight-up).

Nuggets at Mavericks: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:11 p.m. ET.

Money line: Nuggets -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Mavericks +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
Against the spread/ATS: Nuggets -1.5 (-110) | Mavericks +1.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 222.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Nuggets at Mavericks: Key Injuries

Nuggets

None

Mavericks

SF Dorian Finney-Smith (health and safety protocols) out
PF Maxi Kleber (health and safety protocols) out
C Dwight Powell (health and safety protocols) out
SG Josh Richardson (health and safety protocols) out

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Nuggets at Mavericks: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Nuggets 118, Mavericks 110

Money line (ML)

Over their past five games, the Nuggets are dominating the paint and cleaning up the glass. Denver ranks second in rebounding percentage and points in the paint, first in second-chance points and T6 in opponent’s points in the paint.

Dallas has played poorly in similar areas. The Mavericks are bottom-10 in rebounding percentage and opponent’s points in the paint in their past five games. Also, Dallas’s defense looked to be much-improved from last season early on, however, the Mavericks are ranked 24th in defensive rating since Jan. 17.

A major reason for Dallas’s defensive struggles is because of its injury report and Denver is one of the healthiest teams in the Association. The Mavericks being without two defensive bigs, going against Nuggets C Nikola Jokic, who’s playing as well as anyone in the NBA, has bad news written all over it.

GIMME NUGGETS (-125) for 1.25 units.

Against the spread (ATS)

PASS ON THE SPREAD. Don’t be cheap, just pay the vig for a Denver outright victory.

Over/Under (O/U)

Because I am so down on Dallas’s defense at the moment and Denver just has so many ways it can score, I lean OVER 222.5 (-110) for a quarter-unit. Close to 90% of the money wagered is currently on the Over (according to Pregame.com) and each team is 3-0 O/U in its last three games.

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Also see:

Remembering Kobe: His final interview, his death and his legacy (Hoops Hype)
Hoops Hype rumors: Nuggets | Mavericks

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