The Dallas Mavericks (8-4) hosts the Denver Nuggets (9-4) Monday for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off at American Airlines Center. Below, we look at the Nuggets vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Denver has won five straight games, three of which were against playoff teams from last season. The Nuggets hammered the Portland Trail Blazers last night 124-95 as 5.5-point home favorites. Denver is 7-6 ATS and 3-10 O/U with the fourth-best net rating (plus-5.6).
Dallas has won four of its past five games with the latest being a 123-109 victory at the San Antonio Spurs as 2.5-point road favorites.
The Mavs’ offense is all on Luka Doncic‘s shoulders. Doncic has the highest usage rate in the Association and the third-highest assist rate. Dallas is 4-8 ATS and 3-8-1 O/U with the 21st-ranked net rating (minus-1.8).
The Nuggets destroyed the Mavs 106-75 in their first meeting this season, Oct. 29. Denver outscored Dallas 50-22 in paint points and held the Mavs to just 29.5% field goal shooting.
Nuggets at Mavericks odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Nuggets +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Mavericks -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +4.5 (-105) | Mavericks -4.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 208.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Nuggets at Mavericks key injuries
Nuggets
- SG Will Barton (back) doubtful
- SF Michael Porter Jr. (back) out
Mavericks
- PF Maxi Kleber (oblique) out
Nuggets at Mavericks odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Nuggets 104, Mavericks 99
Money line
Slight “LEAN” to the NUGGETS (+160) for a tiny wager because I “like” Denver getting points in this spot and will “sprinkle” on the underdog’s money line. Furthermore, the Mavs have gotten stomped in the few times they’ve played a good team this season.
According to CleaningTheGlass.com, which removes garbage time from its stat tracking, Dallas has an NBA-worst minus-24.3 net points per 100 possessions vs. teams in the top-10 of net efficiency.
That said, Denver’s spread is a much wiser wager so if it’s either or go with the Nuggets plus the points.
Against the spread
Definitely BET the NUGGETS +4.5 (-105) heavier than or instead of Denver’s money line. Each team has only played three games vs. opponents in the top-10 of net efficiency.
But, Denver has a plus-10.7 spread differential (ranked second) in those games and Dallas has a minus-15.3 spread differential (ranked 29th), according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
Also, more than 85% of the cash wagered is on the Mavericks (according to Pregame.com), which has steamed them up from a 4-point favorite on the opener to the current number. Typically, a contrarian mindset is a profitable foundation for successfully betting on sports.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the UNDER 208.5 (-112) because more money is on the Under whereas more bets have been placed on the Over (according to Pregame.com). Generally, it’s wise to follow the money in sports betting especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.
Also, the Mavs just don’t score easy buckets. Dallas scores the fourth-fewest points off of turnovers, second-chance points and fastbreak points per game and the second-fewest paint points per game.
However, I can only “LEAN” to the UNDER 208.5 (-112) because the probable absence of Barton hurts Denver’s defense more so than its offense. CleaningTheGlass.com grades Barton in the 97th percentile of on/off rating for wings.
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