Nuggets Grizzlies odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Denver Nuggets (1-0) face the Memphis Grizzlies (0-1) on Friday at FedExForum. Tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nuggets vs. Grizzlies odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Season series: First meeting of 2023; Nuggets won last season’s series 2-1

The Nuggets cruised to a 119-107 victory over the Los Angeles Lakers on opening night, covering as 5-point home favorites, and the Under (229.5) also hit. C Nikola Jokic led the way for Denver against Los Angeles, recording 29 points, 13 rebounds, and 11 assists.

The Grizzlies failed to cover as 1-point home favorites and the Under (224) cleared in their 111-104 defeat to the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday. Memphis is going to need time to adjust to not having G Ja Morant or C Steven Adams available in the starting lineup.

Nuggets at Grizzlies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:25 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Nuggets -210 (bet $210 to win $100) | Grizzlies +170 (bet $100 to win $170)
Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets -5.5 (-110) | Grizzlies +5.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 223.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Nuggets at Grizzlies key injuries

Nuggets

None

Grizzlies

C Steven Adams (knee) out
F Santi Aldama (ankle) out
F Brandon Clarke (Achilles) out
G Luke Kennard (concussion) out
G Ja Morant (suspension) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Nuggets at Grizzlies picks and predictions

Prediction

Nuggets 114, Grizzlies 107

Moneyline

While the Nuggets are favored to beat a shorthanded Grizzlies team on the road, I’ll PASS on their moneyline in this game. Backing a team at -210 odds isn’t worth the risk given the minimal return you’ll receive if they win.

Against the spread

NUGGETS -5.5 (-110) is the ideal play in this matchup as the defending champions are fully healthy early in the season. The Grizzlies will struggle to slow down Jokic without Adams on the floor, and the Nuggets still boast one of the deepest rosters in the league.

The Nuggets have covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 meetings against the Grizzlies.

Over/Under

With the Grizzlies missing a few key pieces, UNDER 223.5 (-110) is the lean in this contest. The Nuggets are still playing at 1 of the slowest paces in the NBA (tied for slowest pace after 1 game) and they limited the Lakers to only 107 points on opening night.

Both of these teams hit the Under in their 1st games of the season. Also, the Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between Denver and Memphis.

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Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Denver Nuggets (42-18) visit the Memphis Grizzlies (35-23) on Saturday, with tip from FedExForum set for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Nuggets vs. Grizzlies odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Denver took down the Cleveland Cavaliers 115-109 on Thursday to cover as 3-point road underdogs. The Nuggets have now won 4 games in a row and 8 of their last 10. In that span, they are also 8-2 against the spread (ATS) to improve to 34-26 ATS on the season.

Memphis fell 110-105 against the Philadelphia 76ers on Thursday, failing to cover as 3-point road underdogs. The Grizzlies are 3-2 in their last 5 games straight up, but just 4-6 in their last 10. In that same span, they are 3-7 ATS to fall to 26-31-1 ATS this season.

Denver beat Memphis 105-91 to cover as 1-point home underdogs in their first matchup this season on Dec. 20.

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Nuggets at Grizzlies odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:08 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Nuggets +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Grizzlies -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +2.5 (-115) | Grizzlies -2.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 235.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Nuggets at Grizzlies key injuries

Nuggets

PG Collin Gillespie (leg) out
PF Aaron Gordon (rib) out

Grizzlies

C Steven Adams (knee) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Nuggets at Grizzlies picks and predictions

Prediction

Nuggets 117, Grizzlies 111

Moneyline

BET NUGGETS +115

The Nuggets have been on a hot streak recently winning 8 of their last 10, including 3 wins in a row on the road.

While they will be missing a key piece in Aaron Gordon, their offense ranks 1st in both field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. While this will be a tough battle, look for Denver to prevail late to take the victory.

Against the spread

PASS.

The moneyline is a more profitable play for the Nuggets in this game.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 235.5 (-110).

The Under is 4-0 in the Grizzlies’ last 4 games following a ATS loss, 9-1 in their last 10 games following an outright loss, 6-1 in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest, and 11-2 in their last 13 games after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game.

The Under is also 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these squads in Memphis and 5-1 in the last 6 meetings overall between them.

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Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Denver Nuggets (4-3) meet the Memphis Grizzlies (4-3) Wednesday for the second of their two-game miniseries at FedExForum. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Nuggets vs. Grizzlies odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Memphis hammered Denver 106-97 as a 1.5-point home underdog in their first meeting Monday.

The Grizzlies outshot the Nuggets 38.2-23.7% from behind the arc and dominated the paint. In fact, Memphis outrebounded Denver 55-40 and outscored the Nuggets 58-40 in the paint.

Both teams are 2-2 straight-up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) and 1-3 Over/Under (O/U) in their last four games. Denver is 3-2 SU in the last five meetings with Memphis but just 1-4 ATS.

Nuggets at Grizzlies odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:18 p.m. ET.

Money line: Nuggets -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Grizzlies -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +1.5 (-105) | Grizzlies -1.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 215.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Nuggets at Grizzlies key injuries

Nuggets

PG Jamal Murray (knee) out

Grizzlies

SG Dillon Brooks (hand) out

Nuggets at Grizzlies odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Nuggets 116, Grizzlies 110

Money line

BET the NUGGETS (-115) for 1 unit based on the zig-zag theory since Denver should knock down more outside jumpers and can easily correct the mistakes that led to Memphis’s double-digit victory Monday.

It’s hard to beat the same team in consecutive games in the NBA and typically we’ll see the losing team bounce back.

Recent examples include the Orlando Magic responding to a 121-94 drubbing by the New York Knicks in their second game of the season by winning their rematch two nights later.

I expect the Nuggets to ramp up the effort after getting killed on the glass by the Grizzlies Monday. Denver head coach Michael Malone calling out his team’s weak rebounding effort is a straightforward coaching strategy.

However, something Malone needs to focus on is keeping guard Ja Morant out of the paint. Morant scored 22 of his 26 points in the paint against Denver Monday. If the Nuggets can protect the paint and force the Grizzlies to make contested 2-pointers, their defense should be in good shape.

Finally, Denver shot terribly from 3-point land Monday and is due for a bounce-back shooting performance. Memphis has the second-worst defensive 3-point percentage, allows the 19th-highest volume of 3-point attempts and is 23rd in adjusted defensive shot quality according to ShotQuality.com.

Against the spread

PASS since the Nuggets +1.5 (-105) doesn’t provide much insurance for our Denver money line wager. If the Nuggets’ spread gets to 2.5 or higher then I’d take the points with Denver and sprinkle a lighter wager on the money line.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the OVER 215.5 (-108) for a small wager only, because Unders have been much more profitable in the NBA thus far and a vast majority of the market is backing the Over. I don’t like following a crowd of people in sports betting.

I’m more-or-less banking on the zig-zag theory for the Nuggets-Timberwolves total as well.

The market isn’t overreacting to Monday’s Nuggets-Timberwolves game going Under the total by 12.5 points hence the one-way action on the Over. In fact, sportsbooks dropped the total for Wednesday’s meeting to 212.5 on the opener but the market steamed it right back up.

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Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

On Monday evening, the Denver Nuggets (4-2) will visit the Memphis Grizzlies (3-3) The game is scheduled to tip at 8 p.m. ET and will be held at FedExForum. Below, we look at the Nuggets at Grizzlies odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Coming into the game, the Nuggets are led by reigning MVP C Nikola Jokic. While there was some concern when he landed awkwardly a few games ago, his name did not appear on the injury report.

Without PG Jamal Murray, the Nuggets have leaned to solid scoring options like PG Austin Rivers, SG Will Barton and SF Michael Porter Jr.

They’ll be taking on an up-and-coming Grizzlies team, led by potential MVP candidate PG Ja Morant. Morant is playing out of his mind, scoring 28.7 points per game while also notching 7.7 assists per game.

He has taken the leap into superstardom this season. With PF Jaren Jackson Jr. as his right-hand man, expect them to put up a strong challenge against Denver.

Nuggets at Grizzlies odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:45 a.m. ET.

Money line: Nuggets +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Grizzlies -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +1.5 (-107) | Grizzlies -1.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 215.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Nuggets at Grizzlies key injuries

Nuggets

PG Jamal Murray (left knee) out

Grizzlies

SG Dillon Brooks (left hand) out

Nuggets at Grizzlies odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Nuggets 110, Grizzlies 106

Money line

BET on the NUGGETS +102 as great value on the money line.

The Nuggets have a complete roster. With international veteran PG Facundo Campazzo able to get in opposing players’ heads, he might get the Morant assignment early.

Campazzo should be able to do a good job there. However, the real reason Denver has the edge is Jokic against their bigs. C Steven Adams isn’t going to be capable of slowing Jokic down.

Also, the Nuggets rank 7th in defensive rebounding rate, canceling out Memphis’ top-of-the-league offensive rebounding rate. Expect the Nuggets to be able to quench the Grizzlies’ dominance on the glass.

The Grizzlies rank bottom five in the league in defensive rating. The Nuggets hung 110 on the Suns, the worst defense by rating they’ve faced. They’ve yet to face a defense that is among the bottom eight.

The Nuggets should be able to feast on a lacking Memphis defense while just hoping to contain Morant with a pesky defender like Campazzo.

Against the spread

PASS on the spread with a lean to the Nuggets at +1.5.

I’m not a big fan of getting one point when the money line offers plus-money odds. There has been one 1-point game in the NBA’s last 23. While this one may be close, I’d still look for better value on the money line.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the OVER 215.5 (-108) as both teams have highly lethal scorers, and this game could easily be a high-scoring showdown.

With Jokic an all-around threat for Denver, his presence should help Porter Jr. and Barton find their range.

While the Nuggets do rank in the bottom half of the league in pace, they haven’t needed to play outside of their style often, ranking 3rd in field goal percentage. They’ve struggled to start the season but ranked 8th in points per game at 115.1 with a similar roster.

As for Memphis, they’re thriving and rank third in field goal attempts. The Grizzlies get after the glass as well, ranking first in offensive rebounding rate.

Given how well they crash the glass, I expect their second-chance points, which they rank 4th in, could help boost their score, especially if they have to play from behind.

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Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Friday’s Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies NBA odds and lines, with basketball picks, tips and predictions.

The Memphis Grizzlies (17-16) host the Denver Nuggets (21-15) Friday at FedExForum for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we analyze the Nuggets-Grizzlies odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

Denver won four straight going into the All-Star break—all on the road—and covered the spread in all four games. Three of those wins were by double digits.

The Grizzlies crushed the Washington Wizards 127-112 at home Wednesday. Memphis has won three of its past four games and is on a 4-game against the spread (ATS) winning streak.

The Nuggets beat the Grizzlies in two of their three regular-season meetings last year but they each covered once and the other game was a push.

Nuggets at Grizzlies: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:50 a.m. ET.

Money line: Nuggets -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Grizzlies +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
Against the spread/ATS: Nuggets -3 (-115) | Grizzlies +3 (-105)
Over/Under: 227.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Nuggets at Grizzlies: Key injuries

Nuggets

PF JaMychal Green (shoulder) questionable
PF Paul Millsap (knee) questionable
SG Gary Harris (thigh) out

Grizzlies

PF Jaren Jackson Jr. (knee) out

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Nuggets at Grizzlies: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Nuggets 116, Grizzlies 106

Money line (ML)

PASS with a lean on Nuggets (-155) because Denver’s money line is on the fringe of playable for me and it might be worth putting in a parlay.

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Against the spread (ATS)

There are a few reasons I like NUGGETS -3 (-115) for 1.5 units.

First, CleaningTheGlass.com ranks Memphis as the 7th best defense in points per 100 possessions and Denver has knifed through good defenses this season.

The Nuggets are 11-4 overall with the third-highest points per 100 possessions on offense and the third-best spread differential vs. top-10 defenses.

Second, the Grizzlies’ offense relies on capitalizing on their opponent’s mistakes (1st in points off turnovers per game) and crashing the glass (fourth in second-chance points), but the Nuggets are top-10 defensively in both of those metrics.

Finally, this is a good spot for Denver, who’s 9-5 ATS as a road favorite and Memphis is 4-5 ATS as a home underdog.

Over/Under (O/U)

Like I mentioned before, Denver’s mediocre defense matches up really well against how Memphis plays.

The Grizzlies don’t get to the foul line a lot (29th in FTA/FG rate), is a bad shooting team (21st in effective field-goal shooting) and the Under has cashed in their last five games as an underdog.

Also, the Nuggets are 28th in pace of play and they will definitely want to slow this game down since the Grizzlies score the most fast-break points per game.

BET 1 unit on UNDER 227.5 (-110).

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Also see:

Bet Slippin’ Podcast: The Players Championship and NBA’s second half
Hoops Hype rumors: Nuggets | Grizzlies

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