Former Fox Sports executive explains how Pac-12 miscalculated and killed itself

The executive noted that the $ ESPN and Fox are paying to relocated #Pac12 schools is more than the $30M per school the Pac turned down in 2022.

Bob Thompson is a former Fox Sports television executive. He is a voice of experience in television negotiations, particularly in college sports media rights battles such as the recent Pac-12 theater of the absurd that wound up killing the conference.

When the Pac-12 rejected ESPN’s 2022 deal, it ignored Thompson’s specific advise and expertise. Thompson had estimated the value of a Pac-12 package without USC and UCLA at $30 million per school per year. That dollar figure is what the Pac-12 rejected last year in the hope of a $50 million moonshot. If the Pac-12 had taken ESPN’s deal, it would be alive and stable today.

Thompson cited that $30 million per school figure in an illuminating set of social media posts. Let’s share that thread and offer a few other notes from fans in ACC markets who are thinking about whether inviting Stanford and Cal is a good idea:

North Carolina State is blocking Stanford and Cal to the ACC

Naturally, Florida State and Clemson would be against this move. North Carolina? Maybe. But why #NCState? This is fascinating. #ACC

Our friends at Fighting Irish Wire are looking on with interest at the ACC, where Notre Dame has been pushing for Stanford and California to be invited to the conference.

Some national commentators have thrown out some very interesting (read: wild) ideas about Notre Dame and what the Irish should do. Fighting Irish Wire is chuckling at how often — and how badly — the national college sports media world wants Notre Dame to join a conference, when that just isn’t happening.

However, as much as national pundits and personalities might be erroneous and tiresome with their constant insistence that Notre Dame should join a conference, they do have a point in this regard: Why should Notre Dame have a vote on ACC matters when the Irish aren’t a full member in football? It does seem reasonable enough that the ACC should insist on full football membership before granting Notre Dame a vote.

That brings up the larger question, though: Why aren’t more ACC schools voting against Notre Dame’s push to have Stanford and Cal join the conference? The conference has 15 votes with Notre Dame included. The conference needs 75 percent of schools — at least 12 of the 15 (11 isn’t enough) — to approve the Stanford-Cal plan.

Currently, 11 schools are in favor, four are not.

We can understand why Florida State and Clemson would vote no. Why would they want to give Notre Dame anything it wants? Those schools are unhappy with the ACC to begin with. They don’t want Notre Dame to get its way. Moreover, adding Stanford and Cal probably means FSU and Clemson have to split ACC revenues with even more schools. The ACC gets stronger without making concessions to FSU and Clemson, which aren’t getting nearly as much TV money as they should be.

That makes sense.

It makes some sense that North Carolina is also voting against the Stanford-Cal plan, though this one is a little more tricky. Does UNC privately want to go to the Big Ten? If it does, voting no makes sense.

It’s the fourth school voting against the Stanford-Cal plan that is eye-opening. North Carolina State is the fourth no. What really is fascinating about all of this is N.C. State is voting no whereas in-state neighbor Wake Forest is voting yes. Another North Carolina-based school, Duke, is voting yes.

Nine other ACC schools — Boston College, Syracuse, Louisville, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Miami, Georgia Tech — are joining Notre Dame in voting yes as well.

What is it about North Carolina State that is making the Wolfpack oppose this plan while other ACC schools are approving it? Is this the way the 15 ACC schools think, or are the 11 “yes” votes voting yes only because they want to make Notre Dame happy on the surface but secretly oppose the plan and know that four schools will never allow it to happen?

It’s very intriguing.

Let’s look at ACC and national reactions to the revelation that North Carolina State has joined Florida State, Clemson, and North Carolina in opposing Notre Dame’s Stanford-Cal plan in the ACC:

Why would Notre Dame vote to bring Stanford and Cal to the ACC?

Many seem confused by this, but the politics aren’t as complicated on this topic as many might think.

As of Thursday morning, it seems that the ACC’s discussions about adding Stanford and Cal are going nowhere. The ACC does not appear to have the necessary number of votes among its members to approve an invitation to the Cardinal and the Golden Bears. Yet, that’s not the full story.

It was revealed on Wednesday that Notre Dame has a vote among ACC member schools on the Stanford-and-Cal agenda item. Notre Dame is not a full member of the ACC. It is not part of the ACC in football. It plays several ACC teams each season and plays within the ACC in non-football sports, but it is not a football member of the conference. Why Notre Dame would therefore get a vote on this and other urgent ACC matters is a point of considerable debate. As you could imagine, it’s a point of frustration among other ACC members, which is probably why a vote to approve Stanford and Cal to the conference will ultimately fail. There will be enough voices at the table to insist that Notre Dame must not get its way.

One obvious question: What “is” Notre Dame’s way? What is Notre Dame’s bigger play here? What’s the ultimate purpose of wanting Stanford and Cal in the ACC from the Irish’s point of view?

The biggest reason for ND’s stance on Stanford and Cal to the ACC is this: It’s all about the College Football Playoff.

Think about it: If Stanford and Cal are pulled out of the Pac-4, it becomes that much more possible that the Pac-12 dissolves and fully ceases to exist.

What is the consequence of that scenario if it happens? A Power Five conference dies, and with it die all those revenue distributions and allocations for the playoff and the NCAA Tournament. Notre Dame, as an independent, would not have to deal with an automatic playoff spot for the Pac-12 in future seasons. Stanford and Cal staying in the Pac-4 and working out an arrangement with the Mountain West in which the Pac-12 keeps its playoff spot and playoff money distributions would represent one small but real obstacle toward Notre Dame making the playoff every year. Killing off the Pac-12 in an official (logistical, bureaucratic, structural) way would significantly increase the Irish’s playoff odds.

Be sure to follow Fighting Irish Wire for complete Notre Dame coverage.

Now that you’ve gained that answer, watch how fans and pundits reacted to the news that Notre Dame actually does get a vote in the ACC. It was, as you could imagine, a firestorm: