The North Carolina Tar Heels (20-12) will take on the No. 11 Virginia Cavaliers (23-6) on Thursday in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals at Greensboro Coliseum. Tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the North Carolina vs. Virginia odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Rankings courtesy of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.
The 7th-seeded Tar Heels cruised to an 85-61 win over Boston College in the 2nd round on Wednesday to cover as 11-point favorites. North Carolina has won 4 of its last 5 games.
The 2nd-seeded Cavaliers failed to cover as 18.5-point home favorites despite beating Louisville 75-60 in its last regular-season game on Saturday. Virginia has gone 7-3 in its last 10 games.
North Carolina and Virginia will meet for the 3rd time this season with both teams winning at home. The Cavaliers won as 4.5-point favorites 65-58 on Jan. 10 as the 132.5 Under hit. The Tar Heels won as 4.5-point favorites 71-63 on Feb. 25 as the 132.5 Over cashed.
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North Carolina vs. Virginia odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:08 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): North Carolina +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Virginia -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): North Carolina +2.5 (-115) | Virginia -2.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 129.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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North Carolina vs. Virginia picks and predictions
Prediction
Virginia 71, North Carolina 65
Moneyline
BET VIRGINIA (-135).
North Carolina desperately needs a win to have any chance of clinching a spot in the NCAA Tournament. That being said, Virginia is 15-5 against ACC opponents this season.
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Against the spread
VIRGINIA -2.5 (-105) is the pick with it not being a massive spread for the Cavaliers. The Cavaliers are 2-0 ATS at a neutral site this season; the Tar Heels are 2-3-1 ATS on neutral courts.
North Carolina is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games following an ATS win, and the favorite is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
Over/Under
OVER 129.5 (-110) is how I’d bet the total with North Carolina allowing 71.3 points per game (222nd in the nation). Both teams are also averaging a combined 144.7 points per game this season.
The Tar Heels and the Cavaliers are a combined 6-2 to the Over in neutral-site games this season.
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