Tag: No. 1 draft pick

Dramatic shift in Paolo Banchero’s draft odds are probably more about Chet Holmgren

Could the Magic really consider Banchero over Jabari Smith?

Jabari Smith and Chet Holmgren have long been the two assumed favorites to go No. 1 overall to the Orlando Magic in Thursday’s draft. That’s no longer the case, however, as presumed No. 3 pick Paolo Banchero’s odds to become the first pick have shortened dramatically in recent days.

A distant third to Smith and Holmgren going into the weekend, Banchero’s odds have shifted from +2000 to +210 on Tipico Sportsbook, now the second-shortest behind Smith at -150. Holmgren went from +125 to +220, an apparent signal that the undecided Magic could be wavering on the Gonzaga big man.

The reason for that isn’t likely to be a lack of interest on the team’s part, considering Holmgren’s high ceiling and fit in Orlando (check out Bryan Kalbrosky’s final mock draft for more on that). Rather, one explanation could be reports of Holmgren’s preference to play for the Thunder. His odds to go second overall to OKC remain the shortest at -150.

I’m inclined to believe that’s the most likely outcome for him — given Banchero’s leap — with Smith going first overall and Banchero going No. 3 to the Rockets. It’s a slight change in stance, as I once thought Holmgren’s odds to go No. 1 provided the most value.

If you believe the sharp action means anything, betting on Banchero to go No. 1 is beginning to feel more valuable — though I’m not moved by it enough to take action. Despite how much I like Banchero as a prospect and as a worthy top pick, I put more value in the Smith-Holmgren talks that have dominated the conversation for a lot longer.

That would mean the widely mocked order of Smith-Holmgren-Banchero is exactly how things will play out.

[mm-video type=video id=01g5ksj9ybf14yg543xd playlist_id=none player_id=none image=https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/video/thumbnail/mmplus/01g5ksj9ybf14yg543xd/01g5ksj9ybf14yg543xd-1dbea5d55e038c2548c54d2435542da8.jpg]
[listicle id=1913620]

Chet Holmgren’s draft odds continue to tempt after report that Magic could favor him at No. 1

There’s some good betting value here.

The Orlando Magic could potentially target Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren with the No. 1 pick in this summer’s NBA Draft, Bleacher Report’s Jake Fischer reported Friday. Citing rival executives and league personnel, Fisher said the Magic’s affinity for length could lead them towards favoring the seven-footer over Jabari Smith and Paolo Banchero.

This glimpse into the potential thinking of Orlando’s front office widens the possibility that Holmgren could be the top choice ahead of the betting favorite, Smith (-145 on Tipico Sportsbook). That makes Holmgren’s +130 odds all the more enticing — there’s simply more bang for your buck there. Because of that, and given the uncertainty surrounding the selection, I’m putting my money on Holmgren if anyone.

“Yet league figures have consistently mentioned the Magic front office’s affinity for length, particularly length on the perimeter, as a clue they’ll target Holmgren—considered to have the most guard-like skill package of the trio and the most superstar potential.”

While the report is far from definitive, it’s more than enough for me to consider Holmgren a legit option to go first overall Aside from the fact that he’s an incredible talent with great upside — and already has great chemistry with the team’s top pick from last year, his high school teammate Jalen Suggs — Holmgren fits the mold of the Orlando front office’s type.

When Magic president Jeff Weltman and GM John Hammond were in Milwaukee, they drafted Giannis Antetokounmpo. In their first two drafts in Orlando, they took the lengthy Jonathan Isaac and Mo Bamba in consecutive years. Considering Bamba is entering restricted free agency this summer, and Orlando isn’t likely to want to pay him, Isaac and whichever new big they draft this year, it’d make sense for them to replace his size and stretch ability with someone like Holmgren.

No matter which way they go, it’s a great position to be in. They’ll be happy with whoever they end up with.

[listicle id=1897808]
[mm-video type=video id=01g3btgydjwwetsr6348 playlist_id=none player_id=none image=https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/video/thumbnail/mmplus/01g3btgydjwwetsr6348/01g3btgydjwwetsr6348-5142b59ce49d577c089d9f9e14c2eb12.jpg]